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Cheeznado

Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

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The 32 hr 12z HRRR also has no snow east of the Apps. In fact it has temps in the mid to upper 40’s on the back end of the precipitation. :yikes:

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Yes, we really don’t have a chance, outside of flurries, IMO! If we could get the cold front to fly through and then a low form on it, we would do better, but that’s about a 1% chance as of now. The mountains do well regardless, a lot of 2-4” up there. Thinking of chasing up there tomorrow.


It’s too bad, because the other day there was a model or 2 that showed a weak low forming and bringing some snow to places east of the mountains. I think there is a better chance that we don’t even drop below freezing until way after the precip has moved out.


.
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Just now, LithiaWx said:

Man,  I can now see there are very few ga posters left here.  It may only be a very light event but there is some snow coming and this thread is dead as a door nail.  Wow

I am still here bro.  Not sure which model to believe.  Starting to worry about temp profiles.  The moisture looks a litter better than it did 12 hours ago.  Watching the 18Z NAM roll now.

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Just now, HWY316wx said:

I am still here bro.  Not sure which model to believe.  Starting to worry about temp profiles.  The moisture looks a litter better than it did 12 hours ago.  Watching the 18Z NAM roll now.

Updated by nws at 2pm today snow totals are upped slightly for GA.  Image too big to post 

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/

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5 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Meh I’ll take what I can get if it’s only an inch so be it.  From an Atlanta perspective. 

I'll take it. Snow weenies in Atlanta can't be picky, and I always need a good excuse to work from home.

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NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC.  Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM.  That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing.

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52 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Man,  I can now see there are very few ga posters left here.  It may only be a very light event but there is some snow coming and this thread is dead as a door nail.  Wow

There are quite a few of us here! It’s just not looking great for a lot of us. Precip either moves out or dries up east of atl - Gainesville -Cleveland. Looked better a couple of days ago

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Another ATLien here. Just got back from Colorado where I got to ride the deepest and lightest snow I've ever experienced. It's only fitting that I come back to a dusting fiasco in the A. Regardless of what falls, looking like a hard freeze is on the way tomorrow night. Hopefully, the wind will work its magic and keep the ice to a minimum. But like others have said, working from home is fine with me too. Lucky to be able to. 

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Here is the disco from FFC.  Good nuggets in here as to their thinking.

National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main concern is likelihood and timing of rain/snow and snow Tuesday
and will there be impacts from black ice late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. 12Z guidance still brings broad clipper system through
quickly. Even with good agreement on precip timing, of all things,
there is quite a disparity in model temps as the round of precip
moves through. Of course the statistical guidance and any blends
that use them were thrown out due to poor performance with fronts
with such strong gradients. Used CMC, HIRESWarw, local WRF and some
other raw model guidance. EC raw grids too course temporally to use
in GFE, but also shows cooler sfc temps. GFS and NAM have continued
trend of slightly warmer sfc temps. These temps are key to produce
changeover to snow during a relatively short window of time. In
downtown Atlanta, changeover should occur around 9-10a before ending
around noon-1p. Some of the hires guidance pushes things out even
faster than this. Based on all this, local tools producing very
similar snow amounts as WPC guidance which shows snow amounts < 2
inches with the < 1 inch line about 10-20mi north of the
Chattahoochee river and the line of no snow down to just south of
I-85. To account for some uncertainty, have pushed the no snow
line an additional 10-20mi south and east and based advisory on
this. Some question whether temps will be cold enough in Troup Co
(temps never go below 36F until well after precip ends), so have
left them out for now. Higher amounts of > 2 inches likely to
occur in higher elevation of far north GA but would not be
surprised to see those amounts even in Rome or other parts of NW
GA.

Another concern is refreezing of liquid around and after sunset as
temps fall below 30F. Total liquid equivalent precip only expected
to be 0.15 to 0.25 inches across northwest 1/2 of state with lesser
amounts to the southeast. If we get enough sunshine and winds in the
afternoon, the chance for refreezing is low, however there is
uncertainty. Also, sheltered areas can see much less wind and
evaporation and can also see additional runoff and seepage of water
from nearby grounds.

Tuesday night should be windy and much colder and continued cold for
Wednesday.

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1 minute ago, NYweatherguy said:

If this is accurate, those of us in Gwinnett County get screwed.....again. 

I wasn't expecting ANYTHING.  We are too far East for these setups.  Very similar to 2014.  We got nothing and Cobb County folks couldn't make it home.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC.  Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM.  That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing.

I kinda doubt it, with how warm and sunny it was today.

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10 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

This has mega-bust written all over it for Alabama/Georgia. Can't believe how expansive the warnings/advisories are for this "event".

The Euro hasn’t really budged at all on around 2-2.5 for BHM and 1 for ATL.

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