Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, #NoPoles said: Do you track your monthly precip totals? Im at 7.05inches of liquid...just curious where you are at? I use TAN, since I’m like 1/2mi from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think it's going to most likely. Guidance doesn't have the greatest track record trying to shove lows inland...in the low levels anyway. It's not a classic high like the storm a week ago, but there's def still some CAD there nosing down. That's the thing to watch. I mean the forcing is really strong - so this thing definitely feels like NW tug. I'd feel better if it got going a bit earlier and some of the baroclinic processes offshore could try to provide a balance and keep the track closer to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks good. Dynamic quick 4-8". If one takes your forecasts and adds 25-30% and take revs and divide by 2 the accuracy would rival some of the all time greats so 6-12 for Stowe and 1-2 for Rev 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If one takes your forecasts and adds 25-30% and take revs and divide by 2 the accuracy would rival some of the all time greats so 6-12 for Stowe and 1-2 for Rev I’m fine with an inch or two. Just have it white for the coming cold. If it trends better even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If one takes your forecasts and adds 25-30% and take revs and divide by 2 the accuracy would rival some of the all time greats so 6-12 for Stowe and 1-2 for Rev Just bring that thing more south for the love of God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If one takes your forecasts and adds 25-30% and take revs and divide by 2 the accuracy would rival some of the all time greats so 6-12 for Stowe and 1-2 for Rev Ratios gonna be very big everywhere to the NW of the LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m fine with an inch or two. Just have it white for the coming cold. If it trends better even better Agree , we just want full coverage for the arctic chill. I wish I was about 10 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Like to ses this track another 25-50 mi to the east once it gets up here, Having that low go overhead is not the best scenario safe bet right now is 4-6", GGEM would be a great track but to bad it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ratios gonna be very big everywhere to the NW of the LP DGZ is way up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 NNE winter. Currently snowing up there, 26F meanwhile it's PC and 44 in Lowell. Wednesday I end up with a coating on tail end while it dumps a foot at the cabin. I'd guess I'm at about 20" so far in Lowell, 60+ up north, probably 20" above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plow operator asked me how likely Wilmington was to see 2" (his threshold) yesterday, and I told him 40%. I feel that was a good estimate. Good for him--customers, ftl. 5 minutes ago, MarkO said: NNE winter. Currently snowing up there, 26F meanwhile it's PC and 44 in Lowell. Wednesday I end up with a coating on tail end while it dumps a foot at the cabin. I'd guess I'm at about 20" so far in Lowell, 60+ up north, probably 20" above normal. What a difference in SNE today. I was just down in Worcester. Sun shining, 39*, lawns inspiring dreams of a lawn thread. Back at home, 27*,ripping fatties with about an inch on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Good for him--customers, ftl. What a difference in SNE today. I was just down in Worcester. Sun shining, 39*, lawns inspiring dreams of a lawn thread. Back at home, 27*,ripping fatties with about an inch on the deck. Enjoy California! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Enjoy California! Thanks. Missing one of this season’s main events blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks. Missing one of this season’s main events blows. San Francisco is among the world’s great cities! Have you traveled much outside the USA? So much to learn from.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: DGZ is way up there. I roll my eyes at the ratio talk every storm. You usually need to be under a deform band for more than 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: San Francisco is among the world’s great cities! Have you traveled much outside the USA? So much to learn from.... Minimal international travel. And, my SFO time isn't in the city, our offices are in Redwood City and I'm staying in San Carlos. Vis is up, still under 1/2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I roll my eyes at the ratio talk every storm. You usually need to be under a deform band for more than 12:1. There's a reason why we average 11-12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Minimal international travel. And, my SFO time isn't in the city, our offices are in Redwood City and I'm staying in San Carlos. Vis is up, still under 1/2 mile. Use some of those miles and head to some international destinations. You’ll realize how great it is. Enjoy today’s snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I roll my eyes at the ratio talk every storm. You usually need to be under a deform band for more than 12:1. Lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's a reason why we average 11-12:1. Yea cuz averages are made of 13 to 1 and 9 to 1. You are not who I am talking about referring to Pickles response to PF. ENY Wmass PF will be in the great airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea cuz averages are made of 13 to 1 and 9 to 1. You are not who I am talking about referring to Pickles response to PF. ENY Wmass PF will be in the great airmass Better up there, but I saw the best lift below the DGZ out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Better up there, but I saw the best lift below the DGZ out there too. On the Euro? If you are using the GFS probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: What a difference in SNE today. I was just down in Worcester. Sun shining, 39*, lawns inspiring dreams of a lawn thread. Back at home, 27*,ripping fatties with about an inch on the deck. Night and day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yeah... but this is an extraordinary circumstance having a -4 SD mid and u/a anomaly table-sawing its way over the Lakes. As that comes east...it's likely going to latch onto any thing in the flow over NE and foist the f out of equally as anomalously. So, and inland track ... hm... relative to synoptic evolution at hand, not sure - There was better BL resistance/better CAD'ing signature in prior runs...and that part of it is eroded some ... that's not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, MarkO said: Night and day Two pictures tell 2000 words.......those sum up the difference between there and here. Just snizzling now. Just now, Albert A Clipper said: You work for Box? LOL--no. If I did, the quality of the forecasts would really go into the shitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Haven't been on in a while. Looks like another weekly rainer enroute. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It's all over the meme-osphere though that San Francisco is a disgusting city. Picturesque thoroughfare and hilly terrain streets of photographic lore have become strewn with varied filth, ranging from actual household garbage to used needles... Now, I don't know if any of that is true, but ...there's enough of if out there to question the immediate "brochure" on that particular depot - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's all over the meme-osphere though that San Francisco is a disgusting city. Picturesque thoroughfare and hilly terrain streets of photographic lore have become strewn with varied filth, ranging from actual household garbage to used needles... Now, I don't know if any of that is true, but ...there's enough of if out there to question the immediate "brochure" on that particular depot - The smash and grabs are rampant. Insanely so. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/SF-s-car-smash-and-grab-reality-even-worse-than-12224131.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The smash and grabs are rampant. Insanely so. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/SF-s-car-smash-and-grab-reality-even-worse-than-12224131.php Maybe ...maybe not... Can't really trust the web. It's gotten so bad - the web ... - that if you try to look up a source's media bias/political affiliation, the reporting site then has to also be vetted themselves, to see if they are in turn merely slanderous in inventing impressions of the the former ... It's become a big whirling dervish of indirection/miss-direction, designed solely (really) to keep truth concealed from getting out onto a source that "could have" been the ultimate expose on complicit shit. This is human kind. We covet our ability to be complicit so much that purely by accident ... our collective efforts have managed to conspire to ruin the Internet. Everything else on that thing is designed (literally) to sell something. Oy... it's no wonder people fear global population correction and ending ways of life as we know them/it ... Its because on some unconsciously level ...they probably WANT that and perceive it as NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 We're getting in closer to the event ... seeing a tendency to shrivel this up more and more. Just looking at this 18z NAM solution and that compression is just too overwhelming. There may be a band of something whisking through with certain rapidity ...but this is likely going to be NBD as the late great Dick Albert used to refer - Then, for all of the winter enthusiastic patients ... we get rewarded by a GW enhanced warm sector that we're not allowed to implicate as plausibly a demonstration of that particular influence... Have a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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