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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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What a deluge in the late week system.  This has got to be by the  rainiest winter ever in SNE.

EDIT:  just saw the 06gfs that Scott referenced.  What a hoot.  Still doesn't detract from my rainiest winter ever suspicion.  That's still a lot of rain before the change-over.

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15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What a deluge in the late week system.  This has got to be by the  rainiest winter ever in SNE.

EDIT:  just saw the 06gfs that Scott referenced.  What a hoot.  Still doesn't detract from my rainiest winter ever suspicion.  That's still a lot of rain before the change-over.

Nah, winter of 1936-37 sucked.

13.42" precip, 2.7" snow at BOS. Over 8" in December alone, bad luck there. :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nah, winter of 1936-37 sucked.

13.42" precip, 2.7" snow at BOS. Over 8" in December alone, bad luck there. :ph34r:

Srounds like my analog for this winter

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Epstein cancels the rest of winter :lol:Or maybe Tip is Epstein?

 

 

Good thing we have the mostly frozen event coming this weekend then!:cliff:

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy crap on the 6z gfs with a 956 in the GOM lol PF with 3 feet plus in a week.

Looks like a clown solution. Would be awesome since it flashes SNE over to heavy snow but I highly doubt that evolution. 

Most likely even powderfreak is putting the speedo on and pond skimming in this one...just in time to produce glare ice everywhere for vacation week. Lol. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

You forgot 'and way out of bounds'.

 

on a separate note, how does one insert a gif in here?  Mine only show up as images.

I just copy the image address and paste in the media gui. 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most likely even powderfreak is putting the speedo on and pond skimming in this one...just in time to produce glare ice everywhere for vacation week. Lol. 

Hopefully we can follow it up with a day or two of freight train winds to close the upper lifts.

I should know better than to make ski plans for Presidents weekend since the Grinch loves to visit then.  His 2nd favorite ski holiday to ruin. 

:axe:

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36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully we can follow it up with a day or two of freight train winds to close the upper lifts.

I should know better than to make ski plans for Presidents weekend since the Grinch loves to visit then.  His 2nd favorite ski holiday to ruin. 

:axe:

Not saying it's right, but the 06z EPS just had a monster shift for next Friday. 

 

IMG_2439.PNG

IMG_2440.PNG

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully we can follow it up with a day or two of freight train winds to close the upper lifts.

I should know better than to make ski plans for Presidents weekend since the Grinch loves to visit then.  His 2nd favorite ski holiday to ruin. 

:axe:

I'm at Berkshire East right now. Icy frozen granular snow conditions. Base depths are not very deep with lots of frozen ice.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a clown solution. Would be awesome since it flashes SNE over to heavy snow but I highly doubt that evolution. 

Most likely even powderfreak is putting the speedo on and pond skimming in this one...just in time to produce glare ice everywhere for vacation week. Lol. 

Heh... I suggested yesterday the end week evolution was in flux. 

I realize there is an extra-double top secret unpopularity, auto-pilot trashing of the parallel GFS thing that goes around here.. but that model did make a funky whole scale shift south with the total wave-space ... 18z. Personally ... I didn't/don't see why it could not do that.   Just because we have consensus, doesn't make that consensus right - you know this...just sayn'.  At D7, consensus can be coincidental more so than physically precise.

So the last four cycles of the GFS, click-click-click-click ...and the whole structure with that evolution repositions farther SE each time. 

As is...both it and it's native parallel runs across the 00z and 06z solutions, show that the deeper layer (mid u/a) wave space and quasi-closed low are now already reasonably well position relative to climatology, for redevelopment/Miller-B... But as you've very saliently noted (...or maybe it was Chris?), merely not having the BL forcing with cold/CAD'ing it ends up being one of those bizarrely inverted structural lows that wraps the warm air and rain on the N arc of the lower levels, trying to accommodate a cold conveyor wrapping around the the SW/S arc. 

I got new for folks... that structure on a deeper mid-range model is almost always a signature for a solution in flux - lows so rarely do that unless they are cut-off weakening gyres in April, and the quadrants are pallid and showery at best.  That's not what this is, with an absolute super-nova of mid and upper air mechanics to work with.   Boy...I'll tell ya ...if this thing did have llv frontal slopes to work with? Whole winter in one storm, period. 

So, here's what I'm thinking is possible... both the GFS and the parallel run have a quasi-convectively induced 'hook' low formulating somewhere astride the Carolinas ... as the power wheel of the mid levels is approaching the cordillera of NY/PA latitudes... The heights down over the Gulf and Florida and SW Atlantic Basin do something unusual between Wed-Fri relative to present winter trends: the gradient actually slackens some. The winds drop some 15 or so knots and the spacing between isohypses widen just a little.  Those crucially are indications that there is compression available there, and troughs are thus more able to actually dig and not summarily absorb/shear. - this whole factor is under-the-radar most likely... But, we may see this pinwheel deepening sub 522 dm! as it moves over or even in the case of the parallel, under LI ... effectively capture the hook low and ... "legitimizing" it. Thing is... that hook/convective low may not be real, no .. but, the general idea of a kink point on the trailing/leading cfront as it collocates along the EC or off shore is certainly plausible in my mind, and perhaps a correction.

Seeing the EPS at 06z is a red flag not to ignore the potential... 

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18 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm at Berkshire East right now. Icy frozen granular snow conditions. Base depths are not very deep with lots of frozen ice.

Isn’t most ice frozen? :P

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a clown solution. Would be awesome since it flashes SNE over to heavy snow but I highly doubt that evolution. 

Most likely even powderfreak is putting the speedo on and pond skimming in this one...just in time to produce glare ice everywhere for vacation week. Lol. 

You discounting upslope even after. I am not

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