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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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Still stemwinds into NY state but you can see a path to a colder solution there. I wouldn't get hopes up too much but it's not a total lost cause. 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

:(

I mean it’s mid feb...I think the hope for deep, deep winter has passed. I’d rather take my chances with the warm sector of a stemwinding low versus 36 and rain, but that’s just me. Maybe we can pull a miracle and end up with a much colder solution and some snow, but the odds are not forever in our favor.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I mean it’s mid feb...I think the hope for deep, deep winter has passed. I’d rather take my chances with the warm sector of a stemwinding low versus 36 and rain, but that’s just me. Maybe we can pull a miracle and end up with a much colder solution and some snow, but the odds are not forever in our favor.

It looked to start out as some frozen here on that run so that is a plus i will take from it before we warm sector and change over.

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EPS looks roughly like the OP except it doesn't make that sharp left hook into NY. It's not as cold as the 06z EPS though. So I think that was probably a run we can toss. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z OP euro is def going toward the 06z EPS. It won't be as cold I don't think but that is a big change from 00z. 

Yep!

...it was... ( don't get these charts as quickly as y'all )

But, that synoptic evolution for week's end/weekend is definitely in flux.  Bizarre looking low pressures that are highly inverted in nature ...with warmth and rain wrapping west over top, and cold and snow and CCB around the southern arc of the vortex .. I have never seen work out that way when modeled at this range.  Invariably, when you see that ... you are seeing a situation that is in the process of modulating. 

1888 had that look for a while in the reanalysis ... but even there it collapsed dynamically, and Boston finally ended up with a foot.  By and large, lows don't go through the Norwegian sequencing maintaining that sturcture...  It's more likely that the models will come around to instantiating the necessary pressures/sectors in future runs and I wouldn't be shocked if the N side ends up more blue-bomby isothermal.

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

1888 had that look for a while in the reanalysis ... but even there it collapsed dynamically, and Boston finally ended up with a foot.  By and large, lows don't go through the Norwegian sequencing maintaining that sturcture...  It's more likely that the models will come around to instantiating the necessary pressures/sectors in future runs and I wouldn't be shocked if the N side ends up more blue-bomby isothermal.

Norwegian sequencing???  Can't find that one on the Google...what is it?

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14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Norwegian sequencing???  Can't find that one on the Google...what is it?

You won't find it, per se ...

I was referring to the Norwegian Cyclone Model ...  It has a distinct array of steps it "sequences" thru -  ... Will knew what I meant in that case.

Basically,  step 1 ... stationary boundary   ... step two, stationary boundary starts to kink, with warm frontogenesis on the east side, and cold on the west...  step three, cyclone takes on a more commonly known structure, with a warm arc on the right, and cold sector on the left, with concomitant warm front and cold front demarcating... step four, maturation, and the cyclone enters the occluded phase. 

Cyclones don't always go exactly by that sequence of events but that is the gist of the NCM

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The big difference between the euro and other guidance is the euro is phasing the energy in Canada around 84-96 hours with the Tuesday storm as it exits northeast. This really lowers the heights in the east and limits ridging ahead of the Friday system. The torchier guidance keeps these two pieces of energy totally separate. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big difference between the euro and other guidance is the euro is phasing the energy in Canada around 84-96 hours with the Tuesday storm as it exits northeast. This really lowers the heights in the east and limits ridging ahead of the Friday system. The torchier guidance keeps these two pieces of energy totally separate. 

2 days ago this was going down the St Lawrence River Valley, great trend here. 

8F28BB17-92E8-481B-AB94-72A2D2B18982.png

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 days ago this was going down the St Lawrence River Valley, great trend here. 

8F28BB17-92E8-481B-AB94-72A2D2B18982.png

Whether we snow or not is greatly up for debate. What seems very unlikely now is those calls of 55-60 and a cutter with packs erasing to Maine 

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Yeah... GFS went ahead and undid four cycles of southward correction with that lead warm sector for the end of the week ... and went blithely right back to the previous dynamic of heralding GW to James Bay haha ...

Yet, it still tries to implode a secondary bomb in the middle of the quasi-barotropic region out ahead of the main cfront...? Huh. weird.

Anyway, it's too bad... The mid and U/A features are correcting south given time ... This run at least stayed course with that particular aspect ... It's just the that lower troposphere man .. it is such a f dumpster fire.   

Boy, this winter can't end fast enough for me...  I dunno at this point I'm ready for it to all go away.  Lets call it a day and start looking forward to the new season - for those of us capable of doing so... There'll always be next winter.  I get it that March can be x-y-z and I'm sure I'll knock back a shot of hypocrisy if it does but ... I ain't missin' it y'all ..

We're good for 1 decent spring in 5 ... Problem is, it's getting harder to determine that because these maddening extremes keep skewing what is and is not a bad spring. Like, for me...last year was a donkey bj ... But, the year before, we had a week in the 70s in March and capped it with an 84 ... But April went on to scrape knees for donkeys ...  The last rim to rim decent spring I remember is 2012 ... or maybe the year we got to 90 on Easter? I dunno, feel like statistically the "law of averages" owes us.  heh

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big difference between the euro and other guidance is the euro is phasing the energy in Canada around 84-96 hours with the Tuesday storm as it exits northeast. This really lowers the heights in the east and limits ridging ahead of the Friday system. The torchier guidance keeps these two pieces of energy totally separate. 

First of all, I do not think that this is going to trend into a snow event for SNE.....however, I will put my money on the EURO's phasing scenario in the day 4 range. Bottom line is we will probably see a colder rain, and ski country will avoid a disaster.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... GFS went ahead and undid four cycles of southward correction with that lead warm sector for the end of the week ... and went blithely right back to the previous dynamic of heralding GW to James Bay haha ...

Yet, it still tries to implode a secondary bomb in the middle of the quasi-barotropic region out ahead of the main cfront...? Huh. weird.

Anyway, it's too bad... The mid and U/A features are correcting south given time ... This run at least stayed course with that particular aspect ... It's just the that lower troposphere man .. it is such a f dumpster fire.   

Boy, this winter can't end fast enough for me...  I dunno at this point I'm ready for it to all go away.  Lets call it a day and start looking forward to the new season - for those of us capable of doing so... There'll always be next winter.  I get it that March can be x-y-z and I'm sure I'll knock back a shot of hypocrisy if it does but ... I ain't missin' it y'all ..

We're good for 1 decent spring in 5 ... Problem is, it's getting harder to determine that because these maddening extremes keep skewing what is and is not a bad spring. Like, for me...last year was a donkey bj ... But, the year before, we had a week in the 70s in March and capped it with an 84 ... But April went on to scrape knees for donkeys in April ...  The last rim to rim decent spring I remember is 2012 ... or maybe the year we got to 90 on Easter.  I dunno, feel like statistically the "law of averages" owes us.  heh

Same...

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tip wanting to end it is a sure sign its going to be wintry to April 

Most folks just want warmth and 60’s/70’s by mid Morch. You lose retention,you have warm Tip tanning sun.. any snow is really just stat padding . Winter effectively ends in early Morch other than a big blizzard as wavelengths lengthen .. I know you always had the Maine trip , but other than spring skiing and corn snow. The season ends. So I get his rationale .But unless it’s 2012 which was a dream for everyone with 70’s and 80’s. .. spring in New England is like having your back hair waxed with candle wax. It painfully sucks 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks just want warmth and 60’s/70’s by mid Morch. You lose retention,you have warm Tip tanning sun.. any snow is really just stat padding . Winter effectively ends in early Morch other than a big blizzard as wavelengths lengthen .. I know you always had the Maine trip , but other than spring skiing and corn snow. The season ends. So I get his rationale .But unless it’s 2012 which was a dream for everyone with 70’s and 80’s. .. spring in New England is like having your back hair waxed with candle wax. It painfully sucks 

shorten

2010 was a nice spring too. I would take all 50s and 60s for highs in April if it meant mostly westerly flow and sun. All we want is seasons in seasons.

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks just want warmth and 60’s/70’s by mid Morch. You lose retention,you have warm Tip tanning sun.. any snow is really just stat padding . Winter effectively ends in early Morch other than a big blizzard as wavelengths lengthen .. I know you always had the Maine trip , but other than spring skiing and corn snow. The season ends. So I get his rationale .But unless it’s 2012 which was a dream for everyone with 70’s and 80’s. .. spring in New England is like having your back hair waxed with candle wax. It painfully sucks 

More or less.. yes ...

But it's relative to season - I admit to my human condition in such matters.  Take 2015, February:  ...I was tickled pink. It was fascinating... both scientifically and experiential ... rarities and extremes dispensed like pezz candies.  I didn't want that to end... In fact, right into March it stayed frigid.  It was as though the Pacific "short wave budget" simply ran dry ... we had surplus cold with no more storms, otherwise we coulda been bombs away clear to the ides... But, as it were, the snow siege part of all that pretty much shut down for season around that first week...  In no time in the span did I share in the the point of view I am in right now...  Frankly, anyone that wants this winter and it's particular flavor to continue must get off on eating shit!

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