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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

With the PNA forecasted to plummet per GEFS around March 1st, wouldn't the cold air dump from the -epo just fall to the west again, repeating the garbage pattern we are in?

For reference.

1509125238_pna.sprd2(7).thumb.gif.0d0a1e4e72dd52f2cb82b1bd1317e828.gif

Read my mind. The vintage 1985 EPO dump into Butte, MT just doesn't doesn't do it for me...as for the PNA developing and setting up further east...I place about as much stock in that as the NAO, at this point. I'm prepping for MLB fantasy draft.

I've moved on...not getting roped back in until we have strong consensus inside of day 4.

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I started researching my winter outlook not long after I got back from my honeymoon in August, dude.. AUGUST. I was fantasizing about this winter while sitting on a beach in Maui. All that work, anticipation....for this? A 3 month long cold-rain-cold shuffle so adroit in the art of evading snowfall and engineering dissapointment among winter enthusiasts that its just inconceivable that its anything other than a conscious effort....an endless cespool of 2-3" rusty coat hangers that lead us chasing our tails in search of pots of gold over the rainbow that just frankly didn't exist.  Hey, at least we have answered the riddle of just how much precipitation we can muster at nearly 43* latitude in the absence of a positive temp anomaly and still challenge record snowfall minima.

What a three-month enema that will leave me walking sideways for years to come.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to listening to a Sox broadcast out on my deck during a sweltering summer evening amid reports that somewhere in the deepest recesses of a rubber room in Brooklyn, snow88 is still endlessly refreshing wxbell while staring at an MJO chart muttering incoherently.

He mutters incoherently enough already without the MJO chart. 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to listening to a Sox broadcast out on my deck during a sweltering summer evening amid reports that somewhere in the deepest recesses of a rubber room in Brooklyn, snow88 is still endlessly refreshing wxbell while staring at an MJO chart muttering incoherently.

He’ll still be going strong in April, predicting MJO phase 8, SSW’s, modoki El Nino forcing, blizzards and arctic cold death for NYC while the rest of the civilized world is enjoying spring

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started researching my winter outlook not long after I got back from my honeymoon in August, dude.. AUGUST. I was fantasizing about this winter while sitting on a beach in Maui. All that work, anticipation....for this? A 3 month long cold-rain-cold shuffle so adroit in the art of evading snowfall and engineering dissapointment among winter enthusiasts that its just inconceivable that its anything other than a conscious effort....an endless cespool of 2-3" rusty coat hangers that lead us chasing our tails in search of pots of gold over the rainbow that just frankly didn't exist.  Hey, at least we have answered the riddle of just how much precipitation we can muster at nearly 43* latitude in the absence of a positive temp anomaly and still challenge record snowfall minima.

What a three-month enema that will leave me walking sideways for years to come.

It's been the most brutal winter I can remember. And man what a head fake November turned out to be. 

I can't wait till Spring arrives and this wretched winter gets bleached out of existence.

I wish the -EPO was just gone and we could torch March completely 2012 style.

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13 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch 

Both the 0z and 6z have a nuke but unfortunately, we don’t use the gfs to forecast coastals. 

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Both the 0z and 6z have a nuke but unfortunately, we don’t use the gfs to forecast coastals. 

Yeah, just suttin to admire, ease the pain and pull out the old ween too.

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Both the 0z and 6z have a nuke but unfortunately, we don’t use the gfs to forecast coastals. 

right, only cutters, always spot on...

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4 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

right, only cutters, always spot on...

Those are the easiest forecast for sne so even the worst models arbitrarily do well. 2” rain or drizzle fropa, it’s all same ioby.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those are the easiest forecast for sne so even the worst models arbitrarily do well. 2” rain or drizzle fropa, it’s all same ioby.

Exactly. As long as it rains, nobody cares about track. It could cut through ALB or DET. It’s still a cutter. Wider margin for error. 

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Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish.

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish.

No kidding. EURO is pretty snowy in NNE. 

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sunday looking sneaky up here in CNE/NNE, Model trend has been colder on everything except the GFS, Could be a decent snow event if it continues, Euro is very bullish.

Yeah...could be nice for you folks.  Still ,looks like crap down here.

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41 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

not for nothing fellas but it has been down right wintry for a week or so!

Greenfield is solid snow cover.  Several snow to ice events with a lil' fluffer in the middle.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icy sne

Have not looked at the cold source set up for that one but yesterday/today certainly overperformed with the cold.

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No kidding. EURO is pretty snowy in NNE. 

 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah...could be nice for you folks.  Still ,looks like crap down here.

Kind of had this one on the back burner as it has looked to start as some snow/sleet then a change but its looking to stay mostly frozen now on some of the guidance outside of the GFS but we know how that goes.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Have not looked at the cold source set up for that one but yesterday/today certainly overperformed with the cold.

We have seen this most of the winter for some areas where the cold has done this, Models struggle with that aspect until closer to the event.

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1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Fantasy east of the rivah nuke on the 06z GFS op. If there was ever a favorable time for a coastal it will be in that 7-10 day period at the start of Morch 

Seeing the PNA whipsaw around that period lends some credence to the possibility. We often see significant systems when the modes switch like that.

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