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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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7 hours ago, Greg said:

A classic arctic high penetrates all layers not just the top and BL but mid levels also so they are not easily scoured out. 

The key is really high position. The over the top and northeast look allows flow to be easterly into the mountains.

That works twofold: one rising air into the mountains cools adiabatically, two pressure gradient is direct north to south. Northeast flow develops and feeds the low level cold (as can evaporational cooling).

As long as the high stays in that position there is little mechanism to scour out low level cold.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run got warmer aloft....we already know the sfc isn't gonna warm much except far SE and maybe south coast. That said, I'm still expecting it to overperform on the cold side though.

Let’s torch the literal heck outta the mid levels and ice up the forum 

me and blizz only ones clapping 

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7 hours ago, wxextreme said:

GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH.  I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches.  I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end.  

I want to say something snarky, but we do. So does BOX. Since we started probabilistic snow we’ve documented this.

My SOO’s gut check is: is there is any real chance that your forecast is too low? If you say no, then you have a high bias.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Was just looking this up for someone.

Radial accretion is like 20-40% efficient (median 28%). And flat surface is like 60-80% efficient (median 72%).

I asked Ryan this yesterday but he must have missed it. What is the accretion rate on snow that is clinging to branches power lines. Seems like bare surface would be better. 

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