wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have been watching the 18Z HRRR run, from first glance, it seems to be keeping temps slightly cooler than the previous GFS and NAM run (atleast up to 6Z). Will be watching the HRRR runs extremely close now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wxextreme said: I have been watching the 18Z HRRR run, from first glance, it seems to be keeping temps slightly cooler than the previous GFS and NAM run (atleast up to 6Z). Will be watching the HRRR runs extremely close now! HRRR is useless at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Fredericton flattener. Even the standard 1/3 adjustment leaves them with over 60 cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in I've seen them trend colder when you have a high there...2/2/15 did and so did 2/5/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: HRRR is useless at this range for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in Yeah but you stay below freezing from like 925 to the surface the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: HRRR is useless at this range If I went back to the beginning of this forum, I would believe we all would be looking at the Global models 5 days out, which I would argue is also equally as useless, but definitely worth the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON wetter again.. no se about thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pete B just upped amounts from yesterday. I'm actually kind of surprised and not sure if that's a good thing or bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wxextreme said: If I went back to the beginning of this forum, I would believe we all would be looking at the Global models 5 days out, which I would argue is also equally as useless, but definitely worth the conversation. Each model by itself it useless if you use that logic. It's the understanding, experience of failure, and application of experience to your own interpretation of model consensus that is paramount. Ask yourself what model carries water at what stage. The HRRR is best used for short term <8hr nowcasting. And even then it can be quite inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z Sunday on 18z NAM 3k: BOS is -11C (!) at 850mb while Taunton is +3C. Boston never gets below -6c at 950mb. Would never be any type of rain. That's purely snow and then nasty sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've seen them trend colder when you have a high there...2/2/15 did and so did 2/5/14. 3-4” sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So it’s interesting that for days and days it’s been a great front ender for all off the cape and sleet on most of EMA. I’m thinking BOS pulls 6-10 when it’s all done but since Ray gets my measurement..not sure if it’s any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah but you stay below freezing from like 925 to the surface the entire time. I’m basically buying Euro . If it’s tio warm then all ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k nam a little cooler for mby.. pushes close to 10" then sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 3k nam a little cooler for mby.. pushes close to 10" then sleet.. Check out how cold it is at 850mb for you though. It literally hovers -1c to +1c from BOS to Newburyport. A small change could mean a big bust in that area. Or a bigger fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The RGEM looks south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM looks south again. ...isn’t it the n most outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: ...isn’t it the n most outlier Dropped 10" at Jerry's House west of BOS last run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: ...isn’t it the n most outlier The Euro and it were both pretty darn far north and it tends to have a north/west bias beyond 30 hours most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still not sure if pingers make it up to Albany. Mid level warmth advance is always a beeyotch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Check out how cold it is at 850mb for you though. It literally hovers -1c to +1c from BOS to Newburyport. A small change could mean a big bust in that area. Or a bigger fart. not sure about a bigger fart.. but yeah, I mean i barely get to 1c so it's possible if models trend cooler we do better.. but i believe my floor is 8-9" only can go higher and will be a nowcast thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: not sure about a bigger fart.. but yeah, I mean i barely get to 1c so it's possible if models trend cooler we do better.. but i believe my floor is 8-9" only can go higher and will be a nowcast thing Yeah, that sounds right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Still not sure if pingers make it up to Albany. Mid level warmth advance is always a beeyotch. . I don't buy it. I bet you stay 99% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That h85 of 1C-how thick? I mean if it’s a thin layer and high rates it can get washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WOW! Harvey is BULLISH! 12-18" for the Merrimack Valley, kissing 128. 6-12" for Boston metro and interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: WOW! Harvey is BULLISH! 12-18" for the Merrimack Valley, kissing 128. 6-12" for Boston metro and interior SE MA. Sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14-18’’ in my warning. I love the optimism but man 14’’ is a high floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Tickle south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Stuck watching Pete B. getting a tire fixed. He's calling just below that. 6-10 for metro Boston. 12+ is limited to north of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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