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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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Nammmy 

warmer aloft

0c 925 from about a hair S of BDL - Sturbridge - lynnfield at 12z ...maybe 5-10 miles north of THAT at 15z 

icy 

trendy not ur friendy for ice 

Nam thermals lookin mild at 12z w 32 like from PSM to Salem NH  to Me 

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Well I'm having a hard time matching the snow forecasts to my west, but otherwise match BOX and CAR. But it was definitely a tick down from the previous forecast.

StormTotalSnowWeb_zpsi99xbwou.png

There's the before, so people can chuck :tomato: when the new one comes out.

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As evidence of how warm the 00z suite was, WPC's 10th percentile distribution on top of our snowfall  (9 out of 10 time you should expect more than this number) for a location like ASH went from around 9" at 12z to 3" at 00z. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

As evidence of how warm the 00z suite was, WPC's 10th percentile distribution on top of our snowfall  (9 out of 10 time you should expect more than this number) for a location like ASH went from around 9" at 12z to 3" at 00z. 

Have the models really been that far off or is it that the rates will be so high near the changeover zone that a difference of a couple of hours or 20 miles could mean the difference between 9" and 3"?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Have the models really been that far off or is it that the rates will be so high near the changeover zone that a difference of a couple of hours or 20 miles could mean the difference between 9" and 3"?

What it means is that there are just enough models now spitting out the lower range values that the 10th percentile of the curve has lowered to around 3".

Previously so many models were high QPF and cold that 9" was the lower end of that tail.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

What it means is that there are just enough models now spitting out the lower range values that the 10th percentile of the curve has lowered to around 3".

Previously so many models were high QPF and cold that 9" was the lower end of that tail.

Thanks, how much of a change was there in the median between those two sets of runs?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, how much of a change was there in the median between those two sets of runs?

The median values are like 10-11".

The high end values are actually still quite high, because if it stays all snow there is still 18" potential. So their range just got wider. 

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Oh boy oh boy oh boy

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the ice. Temperatures plunging into the upper teens to
  lower 20s by late afternoon will result in a flash freeze and
  wet roads becoming icy. Any mixed precipitation will end as a
  period of snow Sunday afternoon. Travel will be very difficult
  and hazardous tonight through Sunday afternoon, along with po
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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The median values are like 10-11".

The high end values are actually still quite high, because if it stays all snow there is still 18" potential. So their range just got wider. 

Thanks, appreciate the intel.  

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16 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

WWA now, NWS snowfall cut from 6-12 to 3-6, meh. 

It's gonna be fun to see the  southern folks wake to find Coal in their stockings.

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6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's gonna be fun to see the  southern folks wake to find Coal in their stockings.

Its was never going to be a prolific snow producer due to taint in SNE; question now is how much sleet vs ZR is SNE going to get. 

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as much as the gfs is garbagy etc...days and days ago when it was way nw and stubborn about it, perhaps it was sending a message that the southern stream would not be denied

 

I think in their own way, all models try to tell us something and even the terrible ones often get an important piece of the puzzle correct

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4 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Its was never going to be a prolific snow producer due to taint in SNE; question now is how much sleet vs ZR is SNE going to get. 

not so sure I agree with this, with all the talk about that great high pressure etc and snow coming in like a wall

there have been so many juiced up swfe that have surprised on the southern fringes in years past...this easily could have been 6 plus from central NJ north with just a few hours of heavy snow at the onset

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11 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Its was never going to be a prolific snow producer due to taint in SNE; question now is how much sleet vs ZR is SNE going to get. 

Much of RI, CT and south of 90 in trouble. Prob see upgrade to icestorm warnings later today

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12 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

as much as the gfs is garbagy etc...days and days ago when it was way nw and stubborn about it, perhaps it was sending a message that the southern stream would not be denied

 

I think in their own way, all models try to tell us something and even the terrible ones often get an important piece of the puzzle correct

Nah. It was doing that when the srn stream was less amped. It’s still gonna be wrong too.

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Pretty much. These cold temps in the 20s prior to 7a really scream arctic antecedent air. What a pissah. And just like this winter has, this low will probably plow through my fanny as well. 

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4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This storm is going to catch some off guard.  A significant event with nowcast details.

Hopefully with al the build-up, folks won't be caught off-guard.  However, I agree 100% that the nowcasts will be fun.

As far as the cold on the backside. check out the FV3 for tomorrow night.

fv3p_T2m_neus_10.png

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much. These cold temps in the 20s prior to 7a really scream arctic antecedent air. What a pissah. And just like this winter has, this low will probably plow through my fanny as well. 

Convection from PAH to BRO. That shouldn't be a problem at all for modeling. 

The good news is that it's a north/south line, so moisture transport shouldn't be a problem. 

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