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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In trying to analyze if this arctic boundary is trying to jilt us ... 

if it's backing off in subtle amounts it might account for this warming profile.  

Is this the problem?
 

Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat.  Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup?

I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) is either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected.  But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect.

I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_4.png

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8 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

The wind kinda helps knock the ice off the trees.....like if you took a stick and shook it, the ice fractures and falls off. And then if it's even slightly windy during the storm, ice doesn't accumulate really. 

Wind aids in evaporative cooling. Swaying trees and power lines much more tendency to break. It has the opposite effect 

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2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Is this the problem?
 

Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat.  Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup?

I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected.  But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect.

I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol.

You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. 

But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. 

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Is there a model we are not tossing lol

ita clear as daylight it’s wagons north on ML temps and surface appear to be tighter unless things shift back manana . Unless this is a case of meso against global but I don’t see that 

gonna be a tight gradient somewhere between route 2 and MHT it appears w snow totals , unless there are more tickles 

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All good in my hood.
00z GFS and GEM still both give me 10", then a ton of sleet.
I'm doing final tomorrow at the gtg, but thinking of switching from 8-14" to 8-12".


Have a good time with everyone, I’m sure some of you guys will be there in time for the Euro, I’ll have to try to get down for one of these, But with this storm coming, Wasn’t going to make the 2.5 hr trek.
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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. 

But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. 

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled...

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the entire Ohio Valley is verifying about 2-4C cooler at 850 mb than the GFS and NAM. So the entire leading edge of the WAA models are struggling with.

As usual, the 12z Euro is actually performing better than the 00z Americans. :bag:

Did the Euro correct that height error you references last night?

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled...

Plenty of easterly wind at 925 though, which will be blocked by the terrain and help lock in cold.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did the Euro correct that height error you references last night?

I mean it was an error in that it was underforecasting heights, but it's not like the model was flat out wrong, if you get what I'm trying to say.

Basically the 12z ensemble sensitivity patterns were a speed difference (about 50% of the variance) and a track difference (north shift 30% of the variance). To shift the track north the EPS members with lower heights across the ridging in western North America were the pattern to look for. All modeling was too low on heights out west (hence why models were farther north). So this could argue for the messenger SE shift in later "go time" runs.

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