Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pf just sitting back thinking of chest deep powdah. Bobalouie canoeing down Taunton streets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like epic ice for the interior of NAM is right aloft. Its gonna be way too warm at the sfc though. Yeah, hoping to avoid that scenario and be mostly sleet at the height of the warm intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like epic ice for the interior of NAM is right aloft. Its gonna be way too warm at the sfc though. At what point do you backtrack your thoughts of this not tracking over SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crushed This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 pretty icy look on the NAM, that might become the bigger issue with the warmer temps further north.. shit.. getting concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus nam is warmer again. This is amazing lol. pushing 50 just south of here....yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like epic ice for the interior of NAM is right aloft. Its gonna be way too warm at the sfc though. Where do you see the icing setting up Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowbelt said: 6 inches at the canal huh? That is laughable! How long have you lived on the Cape? I've lived in Southern New England my entire 57 years of life so I have a clue about the Cape climo. Just moved from Pepperell (their 20 years) to South Plymouth and as much as I'd love to get a wintry storm tonight/tomorrow, I know damn well it ain't happening. I don't have the skills that a lot of people have on this board so I don't even attempt to give forecasts but am a weather nut (especially since the Blizzard of 78) and love reading their thoughts. James, I have to say though, you are usually good for a laugh. Thanks! Get your rain coat out for tomorrow, it's going to be coming down hard in the morning. That isn't going to stop the snows that come tonight, it will melt by mid-morning in the torrential tropical rains that occur, as models have 4-5" of rain falling, at least there is no snow pack to destroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3km coming in warmer too at all levels thru 09z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ryan to make more cut backs today. This year seems to be easy to forecast, choose the least amount of snow model and use that as your forecast (at least here in SNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The winter of suck continues... ah well. I got grief for a couple of lame threads for 1-2” events that failed. He we have a 107 page thread before anything starts and it is continuing to look worse each run... Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: This year seems to be easy to forecast, choose the least amount of snow model and use that as your forecast (at least here in SNE) Start low and adjust downwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 3km coming in warmer too at all levels thru 09z sunday 3.61 qpf here, wagons north even at the surface. Kevs ice storm now in climo favored areas of Mass NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wear black to the gtg...raise a glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pf just sitting back thinking of chest deep powdah. Bobalouie canoeing down Taunton streets Sleet line is creeping up to him too. He’ll appreciate this cold wedge though at MVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. If you had to forecast it.. how far north and west does 32 get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 3.61 qpf here, wagons north even at the surface. Kevs ice storm now in climo favored areas of Mass NH You know drill . Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Sleet line is creeping up to him too. He’ll appreciate this cold wedge though at MVL. If he sleets it will be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If you had to forecast it.. how far north and west does 32 get? Montpelier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 “It’s dead, Jim.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. Yes that angle of approach at a higher latitude has been showing ENE winds on east coast of mass. this looks like a disaster for ORH up toward ASH and west for ice potential in 9’th inning over to probably N Ct. QPF with amped track is 2.5 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. It’s a pretty strong low over the appalachians to begin with. Pretty strong southerly flow to begin with. I said it many days ago that I did. Not like the trajectory it was coming at us. Pretty high latitude for a southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You know drill . Toss it NAM says trend is not your friend, get up at 3 am to look at your snow before it all washes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. I noticed that here too, the current temperature here is 27.0/25. The atmosphere never got the low dews here. Even in the November storm we were in the low 20s when it started and it "felt" cold. It doesn't really feel cold out there right now...Guess there is next week and we can track wind chills on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM is an absolute furnace here... snow will be a distant memory by the time folks wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: It’s a pretty strong low over the appalachians to begin with. Pretty strong southerly flow to begin with. I said it many days ago that I did. Not like the trajectory it was coming at us. Pretty high latitude for a southern stream system. Yep good call, still think NAM is overamped though. Doesn't make a difference for us. Harveys Thursday snow map was too early AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: If he sleets it will be brief. Probably...but the convection in the SE is still going strong. We may just keep ticking warmer right up until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: At what point do you backtrack your thoughts of this not tracking over SE areas. Well it could def track over like PYM. But it's not going over, say, BOS I don't think. Def not anything west. I'll believe that when I actually see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So....the GFS got a win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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