Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,635
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    SENCMike
    Newest Member
    SENCMike
    Joined

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

as much as the gfs is garbagy etc...days and days ago when it was way nw and stubborn about it, perhaps it was sending a message that the southern stream would not be denied

 

I think in their own way, all models try to tell us something and even the terrible ones often get an important piece of the puzzle correct

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Its was never going to be a prolific snow producer due to taint in SNE; question now is how much sleet vs ZR is SNE going to get. 

not so sure I agree with this, with all the talk about that great high pressure etc and snow coming in like a wall

there have been so many juiced up swfe that have surprised on the southern fringes in years past...this easily could have been 6 plus from central NJ north with just a few hours of heavy snow at the onset

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

as much as the gfs is garbagy etc...days and days ago when it was way nw and stubborn about it, perhaps it was sending a message that the southern stream would not be denied

 

I think in their own way, all models try to tell us something and even the terrible ones often get an important piece of the puzzle correct

Nah. It was doing that when the srn stream was less amped. It’s still gonna be wrong too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This storm is going to catch some off guard.  A significant event with nowcast details.

Hopefully with al the build-up, folks won't be caught off-guard.  However, I agree 100% that the nowcasts will be fun.

As far as the cold on the backside. check out the FV3 for tomorrow night.

fv3p_T2m_neus_10.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much. These cold temps in the 20s prior to 7a really scream arctic antecedent air. What a pissah. And just like this winter has, this low will probably plow through my fanny as well. 

Convection from PAH to BRO. That shouldn't be a problem at all for modeling. 

The good news is that it's a north/south line, so moisture transport shouldn't be a problem. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any more ideas for SNE?

Your backyard may see a little more ice that previously thought. I still think you don't crack freezing, but the warmer models aloft do allow for full melting for a time Sunday morning. 

Maybe you pull advisory snow on the front side, followed by sleet and freezing rain. Maybe if you're lucky you grab a third of an inch ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Your backyard may see a little more ice that previously thought. I still think you don't crack freezing, but the warmer models aloft do allow for full melting for a time Sunday morning. 

Maybe you pull advisory snow on the front side, followed by sleet and freezing rain. Maybe if you're lucky you grab a third of an inch ice.

I think the icing from NW RI hills west in CT will be a now cast type event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...