JBinStoughton Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sucks to live there. In a ratter winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Yes especially in the winter Depressing winter A coc-y spring will raise your spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A coc-y spring will raise your spirits. Spring will be cool and damp right until mid-June. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Let me first state that I am still riding with Ray, Don and Isotherm on their thoughts of a really good upcoming pattern. However posting the following for discussion. May mean nothing. 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Am I the only one concerned that guidance it retrograding the trough into the epo region which is exactly what happened in December the lest time the mjo spiked into phase 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we can’t cash in next 6 weeks it’s purely being on the wrong side of variance. We would take the look 100 times over and do very well on 75 of them. Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” I beleive if you compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period we will see in 7-10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” I beleive if you compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period we will see in 7-10 days that's the story of this entire winter so far. always 7-10 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Re the "pattern change" discussion ... this has been similar to making a deal with the devil. Pattern changes ... there was no guarantee it was going to change into exactly what folks want ... There was no promise it would change into anything even half of that expectation. Still ...yar, it's true ... in spirit, we all know what was intended by the pattern change, but reality and expectations ..heh, some people spend their whole lives depressed because of that divorce, never figuring out why the two so rarely reconcile. The pattern did change from where I'm sitting.. It basically took the pattern of December and added height lines to it, without actually morphing the orientation of planetary waves - not substantially enough. We have added gradient - that has turned out to be the change. The only reason why we recently experienced a winter event was really like rolling 7's at the crappes table. There was a well time cold high pressure/anticyclone situated N... similar actually to what took place back in November, tho no analog per se. Just the timing of the synoptic features... Going forward, yesterday's GEFs -based teleconnectors did not look very appealing to winter weather enthusiasts; considering where they have been and what has verified during that journey, it is hard to imagine how the layout as of yesterday would parlay favorably. Wonders never cease... and I don't know about the EPS. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Tels and mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Stubborn nao is what’s doing us dirty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The cpc method is considerably different than the method used on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Sorry. Should compare apples to apples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 What’s with all the whining and complaining? The pattern looks absolutely fantastic with plenty of cold and snow threats starting with the coastal Monday/ Tuesday . EPS is the best its looked all winter. Folks need to get a grip just because it’s gonna rain this week . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, JBinStoughton said: In a ratter winter For southern CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s with all the whining and complaining? The pattern looks absolutely fantastic with plenty of cold and snow threats starting with the coastal Monday/ Tuesday . EPS is the best its looked all winter. Folks need to get a grip just because it’s gonna rain this week . Everyone is whining all over the other forums and social media because forecasters had this winter being a cold and snowy winter for the whole northeast . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For southern CT. Not really yet. At 25% of my lower average range. Only 1 22.5 storm gets me there. If I finish at 25% then yes ratter. My personal def for fun: Less than 33% = ratter. 33 to 49% = terrible. 50 to 63% = bad. 64 to 99% = disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not really yet. At 25% of my lower average range. Only 1 22.5 storm gets me there. If I finish at 25% then yes ratter. My personal def for fun: Less than 33% = ratter. 33 to 49% = terrible. 50 to 63% = bad. 64 to 99% = disappointing. It was tongue in cheek....I'm just playing the game. Sick of arguing at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone is whining all over the other forums and social media because forecasters had this winter being a cold and snowy winter for the whole northeast . No one should have expected that when we lost all of Dec and most of Jan. After you lose a full winter month in Dec, it’s time to adjust forecasts and expectations. Shame on anyone who thought an epic winter was enroute after losing Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one should have expected that when we lost all of Dec and most of Jan. After you lose a full winter month in Dec, it’s time to adjust forecasts and expectations. Shame on anyone who thought an epic winter was enroute after losing Dec 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty much. I'm exhausted by it at this point...I just want finality already...either work out, or don't. As frustrating as its been, we are two days into the perferred period and have seen one decent storm for most. Gotta keep perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” I beleive if you compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period we will see in 7-10 days Yea I see what you mean. I was more future casting....like if that look comes to fruition and we have subpar results, it’s unlucky. But agree, if the favorable LR ‘look’ becomes not so favorable in the SR, then models just sucked, overshot their load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For southern CT. Been fine, 9” in Novie then 4” on Saturday. Nothing anomolous compared to EMA. Everyone south of the resorts is below normal. we are all in the duldrums together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Models clearly showed the MJO going back to 4-5-6, many here discounted it saying its going to be in COD. That was a mistake: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My winter thoughts are now under review for possible revision... One of my fundamental assumptions concerned a central Pacific-based El Niño event. The latest weekly ENSO data reveal that the ongoing weak El Niño has largely been and remains a weak basin-wide event. The newest data show a Region 1+2 anomaly of +0.9°C vs. a Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.5°. I am currently reviewing the data for weak basin-wide events and will post any needed update in coming days. My two ENSO-related assumptions going forward are: 1. The current El Niño event has largely peaked for winter 2018-19 (this doesn't preclude a moderate or stronger El Niño next winter) 2. The current El Niño event will wind up having been a basin-wide event, not a central Pacific-based one Fyi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: Best post of the year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Best post of the year!!! Are you sitting on a wooden chair , naked looking at it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Models clearly showed the MJO going back to 4-5-6, many here discounted it saying its going to be in COD. That was a mistake: I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever. We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway. It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry. The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake. I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever. We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway. It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry. The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake. I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry Cold and dry with. Inches of rain on Thursday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Cold and dry with. Inches of rain on Thursday ? It’s the only significant storm on ensembles for the next 16 days. I would say given what we have seen the prior 8 weeks on the ensembles with consistently active storm tracks you can see we are in for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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