Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s the only significant storm on ensembles for the next 16 days. I would say given what we have seen the prior 8 weeks on the ensembles with consistently active storm tracks you can see we are in for a change Did you miss the one early next week on both EPS and Gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever. We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway. It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry. The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake. I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry Cold and dry? Pretty sure most just had a 2-4” liquid equivalent storm this past weekend with another 1-3”+ LE event for this Thursday. Sure, the cold has generally coincided with lack of storms, warming up in time to rain. I’ll give you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Re the "pattern change" discussion ... this has been similar to making a deal with the devil. Pattern changes ... there was no guarantee it was going to change into exactly what folks want ... There was no promise it would change into anything even half of that expectation. Still ...yar, it's true ... in spirit, we all know what was intended by the pattern change, but reality and expectations ..heh, some people spend their whole lives depressed because of that divorce, never figuring out why the two so rarely reconcile. The pattern did change from where I'm sitting.. It basically took the pattern of December and added height lines to it, without actually morphing the orientation of planetary waves - not substantially enough. We have added gradient - that has turned out to be the change. The only reason why we recently experienced a winter event was really like rolling 7's at the crappes table. There was a well time cold high pressure/anticyclone situated N... similar actually to what took place back in November, tho no analog per se. Just the timing of the synoptic features... Going forward, yesterday's GEFs -based teleconnectors did not look very appealing to winter weather enthusiasts; considering where they have been and what has verified during that journey, it is hard to imagine how the layout as of yesterday would parlay favorably. Wonders never cease... and I don't know about the EPS. I asked the pattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so in terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probably does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things are still trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority of the frozen precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just don’t get where all the melts are coming from ? Fantastic look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I asked thebpattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so on terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probanly does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority if the frozen precip. Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada... those represent fundamental "change" ... and fairly profound ones at that. The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences. If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly... By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil. But that's for muse... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much. I'm exhausted by it at this point...I just want finality already...either work out, or don't. As frustrating as its been, we are two days into the perferred period and have seen one decent storm for most. Gotta keep perspective. Ray, You're beginning to "sound" like a few friends who gave up playing fantasy league sports. They realized they weren't enjoying watching sports as much as they had at one time because they always had something on the line so to speak. And as in weather there is no control over the outcomes. They now watch sports and they enjoy doing so. One friend told me he never realized how much time he was devoting to fantasy league sports until he quit playing in various leagues. I'm not advocating that you give up weather, but if developing a winter forecast and then watching how the weather unfolds during the winter is causing you stress and exhaustion then perhaps you may need to re-consider doing so. You came up with your own winter forecast. If it doesn't pan out.....well that happens. It's not like you are professionally employed and you had clients make business decisions based on the forecast. There are 1-2 here who are going to bash you if the forecast doesn't pan out. Just ignore them. They are small minded people to begin with. Just enjoy weather for what it is. There are a lot more important things in life to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you sitting on a wooden chair , naked looking at it? A wooden, colonial chair built in 1717? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: A wooden, colonial chair built in 1717? He's a 5 year old child. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: He's a 5 year old child. lol. Take it with a grain of salt. It's all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: lol. Take it with a grain of salt. It's all in good fun. spoiled child at that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: lol. Take it with a grain of salt. It's all in good fun. He’s got no clue lol. As uppity as uppity gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He’s got no clue lol. As uppity as uppity gets No you are the uppity one who long ago should have been banned from the forum. There isn't another online forum that would have tolerated your behavior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: No you are the uppity one who long ago should have been banned from the forum. There isn't another online forum that would have tolerated your behavior. Get a grip kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 You are the one who has continually acted like some spoiled child when the weather doesn't deliver exactly what you want it to. How many melts have you had???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: No you are the uppity one who long ago should have been banned from the forum. There isn't another online forum that would have tolerated your behavior. But this forum operates differently. If I wanted dry information with no personality I’d go elsewhere. But many of us have known each other from F2F contact. Kevin is a senior member. Ignore the outlandish stuff. But Kevin is a good guy. I met him in 2006 and have seen him multiple times since. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I asked the pattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so in terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probably does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things are still trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority of the frozen precip. Sure looks like a change when I peek out my window- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: But this forum operates differently. If I wanted dry information with no personality I’d go elsewhere. But many of us have known each other from F2F contact. Kevin is a senior member. Ignore the outlandish stuff. But Kevin is a good guy. I met him in 2006 and have seen him multiple times since. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Ray, You're beginning to "sound" like a few friends who gave up playing fantasy league sports. They realized they weren't enjoying watching sports as much as they had at one time because they always had something on the line so to speak. And as in weather there is no control over the outcomes. They now watch sports and they enjoy doing so. One friend told me he never realized how much time he was devoting to fantasy league sports until he quit playing in various leagues. I'm not advocating that you give up weather, but if developing a winter forecast and then watching how the weather unfolds during the winter is causing you stress and exhaustion then perhaps you may need to re-consider doing so. You came up with your own winter forecast. If it doesn't pan out.....well that happens. It's not like you are professionally employed and you had clients make business decisions based on the forecast. There are 1-2 here who are going to bash you if the forecast doesn't pan out. Just ignore them. They are small minded people to begin with. Just enjoy weather for what it is. There are a lot more important things in life to worry about. You read way too much into that. Its seasonal....runs it course every year, and part of the reason why I tune out in the spring. I think I'm being treated pretty fairly. If I bust, some criticism will be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada... those represent fundamental "change" ... and fairly profound ones at that. The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences. If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly... By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil. But that's for muse... Yea, the pattern changed...its just still not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You read way too much into that. Its seasonal....runs it course every year, and part of the reason why I tune out in the spring. I think I'm being treated pretty fairly. If I bust, some criticism will be warranted. It's too bad that you tune out in the spring because you can learn plenty about the installation of window AC units. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada... those represent fundamental "change" ... and fairly profound ones at that. The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences. If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly... By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil. But that's for muse... Thank you, I was looking for what the differences were. I kept seeing lots of posts saying pattern change, but nothing detailing the changes. So far the outcome of those changes hasnt appeared to produce much of anything different...yet...and we are in the final week of January...also, im not trying to pester, just was looking for what someone who actually knows what they are looking at, is seeing. Maybe it turns out that the changes you described dont affect the overall storm track, and we stick with a gradient winter...we certainly havent been lacking in precipitation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Thank you, I was looking for what the differences were. I kept seeing lots of posts saying pattern change, but nothing detailing the changes. So far the outcome of those changes hasnt appeared to produce much of anything different...yet...and we are in the final week of January...also, im not trying to pester, just was looking for what someone who actually knows what they are looking at, is seeing. Maybe it turns out that the changes you described dont affect the overall storm track, and we stick with a gradient winter...we certainly havent been lacking in precipitation 1/1-10 had 9 above normal days and one below. 1/11-20 had 6 below normal days and 4 above. 1/21-30 will kick right off with 2 way below normal days. That to me is a pretty significant change even if it hasn’t snowed in Plymouth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Op models look meh and wet for early next week. Plenty of time to change that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Fyi. I do want to see what the implications are. I want to be informed by the data and, if necessary, incorporate the findings into my thinking going ahead. I do think a sustained period of blocking lies ahead and that will create snowfall opportunities. That latter aspect has not changed. Nevertheless, it would be useful to see if the ENSO conditions, even in a weak El Niño event, have implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I do want to see what the implications are. I want to be informed by the data and, if necessary, incorporate the findings into my thinking going ahead. I do think a sustained period of blocking lies ahead and that will create snowfall opportunities. That latter aspect has not changed. Nevertheless, it would be useful to see if the ENSO conditions, even in a weak El Niño event, have implications. Thanks Don. Appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 This looks like a pattern where systems will pop inside d4/d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This looks like a pattern where systems will pop inside d4/d5. Agreed, could end up seeing a bunch of sneaky events. Probably best not to look beyond 120hrs on any model. I've seen some dramatic run to run changes this season even in the middange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 That was one really active 12z GFS run after the upcoming wintry mix. Weekend snow showers, then a system Monday and another one a day later on Tuesday? That upper level trough early next week looks real interesting, could pop something near the coast pretty quick. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 423 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains fairly active heading into the weekend as we stay under cyclonic flow aloft. We`ll see several waves of shortwave energy which bring near daily chances for snow showers through Monday. Its tough to pick a day where it might not snow based on the upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I keep seeing -40 850 temp PVs in the extended. Keep those up in Canada and I'll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was one really active 12z GFS run after the upcoming wintry mix. Weekend snow showers, then a system Monday and another one a day later on Tuesday? That upper level trough early next week looks real interesting, could pop something near the coast pretty quick. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 423 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains fairly active heading into the weekend as we stay under cyclonic flow aloft. We`ll see several waves of shortwave energy which bring near daily chances for snow showers through Monday. Its tough to pick a day where it might not snow based on the upper level pattern. I’m bewildered about the mention of cold and dry on here today. Nothing shows that. There’s a big signal for Monday/ Tuesday on all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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