January 2019 Discussion II

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” 

I beleive if you  compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period 

we will see in 7-10 days 

that's the story of this entire winter so far. always 7-10 days away

[Typhoon Tip]

Re the "pattern change" discussion ... this has been similar to making a deal with the devil.   Pattern changes ... there was no guarantee it was going to change into exactly what folks want ... There was no promise it would change into anything even half of that expectation.   

Still ...yar, it's true ... in spirit, we all know what was intended by the pattern change, but reality and expectations ..heh, some people spend their whole lives depressed because of that divorce, never figuring out why the two so rarely reconcile. 

The pattern did change from where I'm sitting..  It basically took the pattern of December and added height lines to it, without actually morphing the orientation of planetary waves - not substantially enough.  We have added gradient - that has turned out to be the change.  

The only reason why we recently experienced a winter event was really like rolling 7's at the crappes table.  There was a well time cold high pressure/anticyclone situated N... similar actually to what took place back in November, tho no analog per se.  Just the timing of the synoptic features... 

Going forward, yesterday's GEFs -based teleconnectors did not look very appealing to winter weather enthusiasts; considering where they have been and what has verified during that journey, it is hard to imagine how the layout as of yesterday would parlay favorably.  Wonders never cease...  and I don't know about the EPS. 

[EastonSN+]

Tels and mojo

 

[SnowHole413]

Stubborn nao is what’s doing us dirty 

[OSUmetstud]

The cpc method is considerably different than the method used on wxbell 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Sorry. Should compare apples to apples. 

[Damage In Tolland]

What’s with all the whining and complaining? The pattern looks absolutely fantastic with plenty of cold and snow threats starting with the coastal Monday/ Tuesday . EPS is the best its looked all winter. Folks need to get a grip just because it’s gonna rain this week . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, JBinStoughton said:

In a ratter winter

For southern CT.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s with all the whining and complaining? The pattern looks absolutely fantastic with plenty of cold and snow threats starting with the coastal Monday/ Tuesday . EPS is the best its looked all winter. Folks need to get a grip just because it’s gonna rain this week . 

Everyone is whining all over the other forums and social media because forecasters had this winter being a cold and snowy winter for the whole northeast .

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For southern CT.

Not really yet. At 25% of my lower average range. Only 1 22.5 storm gets me there.

If I finish at 25% then yes ratter.

My personal def for fun:

Less than 33% = ratter.

33 to 49% = terrible.

50 to 63% = bad.

64 to 99% = disappointing.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not really yet. At 25% of my lower average range. Only 1 22.5 storm gets me there.

If I finish at 25% then yes ratter.

My personal def for fun:

Less than 33% = ratter.

33 to 49% = terrible.

50 to 63% = bad.

64 to 99% = disappointing.

 

 

 

It was tongue in cheek....I'm just playing the game. Sick of arguing at this point.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone is whining all over the other forums and social media because forecasters had this winter being a cold and snowy winter for the whole northeast .

No one should have expected that when we lost all of Dec and most of Jan. After you lose a full winter month in Dec, it’s time to adjust forecasts and expectations. Shame on anyone who thought an epic winter was enroute after losing Dec

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one should have expected that when we lost all of Dec and most of Jan. After you lose a full winter month in Dec, it’s time to adjust forecasts and expectations. Shame on anyone who thought an epic winter was enroute after losing Dec

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty much.

I'm exhausted by it at this point...I just want finality already...either work out, or don't. As frustrating as its been, we are two days into the perferred period and have seen one decent storm for most. Gotta keep perspective.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” 

I beleive if you  compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period 

we will see in 7-10 days 

Yea I see what you mean. I was more future casting....like if that look comes to fruition and we have subpar results, it’s unlucky. But agree, if the favorable LR ‘look’ becomes not so favorable in the SR, then models just sucked, overshot their load. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For southern CT.

Been fine, 9” in Novie then 4” on Saturday. Nothing anomolous compared to EMA. Everyone south of the resorts is below normal. we are all in the duldrums together. 

[qg_omega]

Models clearly showed the MJO going back to 4-5-6, many here discounted it saying its going to be in COD.  That was a mistake:

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My winter thoughts are now under review for possible revision...

One of my fundamental assumptions concerned a central Pacific-based El Niño event. The latest weekly ENSO data reveal that the ongoing weak El Niño has largely been and remains a weak basin-wide event. The newest data show a Region 1+2 anomaly of +0.9°C vs. a Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.5°. I am currently reviewing the data for weak basin-wide events and will post any needed update in coming days.

My two ENSO-related assumptions going forward are:

1. The current El Niño event has largely peaked for winter 2018-19 (this doesn't preclude a moderate or stronger El Niño next winter)

2. The current El Niño event will wind up having been a basin-wide event, not a central Pacific-based one

Fyi.

[Great Snow 1717]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Best post of the year!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Best post of the year!!!

Are you sitting on a wooden chair , naked looking at it?

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Models clearly showed the MJO going back to 4-5-6, many here discounted it saying its going to be in COD.  That was a mistake:

I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever.  We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway.  It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry.  The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake.  I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever.  We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway.  It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry.  The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake.  I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry 

Cold and dry with. Inches of rain on Thursday ?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cold and dry with. Inches of rain on Thursday ?

It’s the only significant storm on ensembles for the next 16 days.  I would say given what we have seen the prior 8 weeks on the ensembles with consistently active storm tracks you can see we are in for a change 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s the only significant storm on ensembles for the next 16 days.  I would say given what we have seen the prior 8 weeks on the ensembles with consistently active storm tracks you can see we are in for a change 

Did you miss the one early next week on both EPS and Gefs?

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t believe that had any impact whatsoever.  We ultimately went right into the expected pattern change over the last 1-2 weeks anyway.  It’s just that now we appear to be going cold and dry.  The El Niño never really developed as expected so to anticipate we would continue with an active storm track all winter was a mistake.  I fired the warning shot 2 weeks ago in the NYC forum that I had slight concerns after 1/20 we would go mostly cold and dry 

Cold and dry?  Pretty sure most just had a 2-4” liquid equivalent storm this past weekend with another 1-3”+ LE event for this Thursday. Sure, the cold has generally coincided with lack of storms, warming up in time to rain. I’ll give you that. 

[#NoPoles]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the "pattern change" discussion ... this has been similar to making a deal with the devil.   Pattern changes ... there was no guarantee it was going to change into exactly what folks want ... There was no promise it would change into anything even half of that expectation.   

Still ...yar, it's true ... in spirit, we all know what was intended by the pattern change, but reality and expectations ..heh, some people spend their whole lives depressed because of that divorce, never figuring out why the two so rarely reconcile. 

The pattern did change from where I'm sitting..  It basically took the pattern of December and added height lines to it, without actually morphing the orientation of planetary waves - not substantially enough.  We have added gradient - that has turned out to be the change.  

The only reason why we recently experienced a winter event was really like rolling 7's at the crappes table.  There was a well time cold high pressure/anticyclone situated N... similar actually to what took place back in November, tho no analog per se.  Just the timing of the synoptic features... 

Going forward, yesterday's GEFs -based teleconnectors did not look very appealing to winter weather enthusiasts; considering where they have been and what has verified during that journey, it is hard to imagine how the layout as of yesterday would parlay favorably.  Wonders never cease...  and I don't know about the EPS. 

I asked the pattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so in terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probably does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things are still trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority of the frozen precip.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just don’t get where all the melts are coming from ? Fantastic look

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I asked thebpattern change question, not in regards to where is the more favorable pattern, but more so on terms of it doesnt appear that anything has changed. Storm track is still the same, we get either NNE favored storms or we get cutters. No phasing, no blocking, the cold air is around, but the greater percentage of the time in this geographic area it has continually stayed in Canada...i feel like everything is still ththe same. Ray had commented where i live it probanly does appear nothing has changed. But i wasnt asking for my back yard, I was speaking of the area covered by this forum. It appears things trucking along, cold stays north, gradient winter with storms where NNE and sometimes CNNe gets the majority if the frozen precip.

Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. 

The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada...  those represent fundamental "change"  ... and fairly profound ones at that. 

The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences.  If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. 

There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly...   By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. 

It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts  

Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil.   But that's for muse...

 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty much.

I'm exhausted by it at this point...I just want finality already...either work out, or don't. As frustrating as its been, we are two days into the perferred period and have seen one decent storm for most. Gotta keep perspective.

Ray,

 You're beginning to "sound" like a few friends who gave up  playing fantasy league sports.  They realized they weren't enjoying watching sports as much as they had at one time because they always had something on the line so to speak.  And as in weather there is no control over the outcomes. They now watch sports and they enjoy doing so.  One friend told me he never realized how much time he was devoting to fantasy league sports until he quit playing in various leagues.

I'm not advocating that you give up weather, but if developing  a winter forecast and then watching how the weather unfolds during the winter is causing you stress and exhaustion then perhaps you may need to re-consider doing so. 

You came up with your own winter forecast. If it doesn't pan out.....well that happens. It's not like you are professionally employed and you had clients make business decisions based  on the forecast.  There are 1-2 here who are going to bash you if the forecast doesn't pan out. Just ignore them. They are small minded people  to begin with.  Just enjoy weather for what it is. There are a lot more important things in life to worry about.