clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 My final call for the Shenandoah Valley: Winchester 5-8 Stephens City 6-9 Middletown/Front Royal/Strasburg 7-10 Woodstock/New Market/Luray 7-10 Harrisonburg/Staunton 8-11 Covington/ Clifton Forge 9-12 Roanoake/Lynchburg 2-4 with .25-.35 of ice on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Not accurate. Much better if you're south of Stafford county, but a downtick for most of the area. Verbatim, less than 0.3" at DCA. Yet still 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, snjókoma said: Not accurate. Much better if you're south of Stafford county, but a downtick for most of the area. Verbatim, less than 0.3" at DCA. Yea, not quite the dusting you're hoping for. Still time to get to zero though 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like 18z GFS will be a slight step back... but probably noise 18z gfs actually not a step back. QPF bumped to our south. It’s just not in line with the mesos which are showing the banding structure better imo. It’s what their for in these short lead scenarios so I’ll take their word for it unless reason not to. But gfs is same maybe slight improvement south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS has the R/S line further South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Yet still 3 to 5 I don't think 0.25" spread out over 12 hours would amount to 3". You can quibble all you want, but GFS is a nice reminder that this was and is a 2-4", despite what the RGEM and NAM want to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: I don't think 0.25" spread out over 12 hours would amount to 3". Yet you skipped right over the NAM twins and RGEM and ICON to rush in to post this lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Fv3 is very consistent and similar to mesos/euro etc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, snjókoma said: I don't think 0.25" spread out over 12 hours would amount to 3". You can quibble all you want, but GFS is a nice reminder that this was and is a 2-4", despite what the RGEM and NAM want to do. What about the EURO and FV3 both near or at 0.5" QPF for DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: I don't think 0.25" spread out over 12 hours would amount to 3". I see .3-.4 dc proper. So it’s approx 3-4 inches and more with advertised ratios. I don’t gfs is picking up on the banding and coastal enhancement. I think it’s underdone imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Can we just go with a GFS/NAM blend and call it a day? Not too greedy of a request, and a nice snowfall for almost all! Trying not to let the NAM and RGEM get me too amped up, as they are notoriously too wet. GFS, however, is always dry and too flat / SE with shortwaves. A happy medium would do nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: I see .3-.4 dc proper. So it’s approx 3-4 inches and more with advertised ratios. I don’t gfs is picking up on the banding and coastal enhancement. I think it’s underdone imo Save your keystrokes. Wet blanket is only here for one reason 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I like the NBC map 4-7 right now for most of the metro. Aside from the GFS pretty much unanimous agreement in 0.4+ of QPF with decent ratios. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is very consistent and similar to mesos/euro etc Nice test for the FV3. Was all over the place early this week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Nice test for the FV3. Was all over the place early this week though. Yea, way jumpy. Held onto the amped west track waaay too long but once it locked in there hasn't been much run over run variance. Maybe that's a strength? We'll know by the end of the year but the Fv3 seems half decent in the short range. I know the folks in the SE think highly of it in the short range with their big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2-4 is nearly a lock for everyone. Any more is white icing on the snow cake and we won’t really know exactly how things will evolve. Almost now cast time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 2-4 is nearly a lock for everyone. Any more is white icing on the snow cake and we won’t really know exactly how things will evolve. Almost now cast time. We all want very thick icing! No skimping! Hopefully Euro delivers a reassuring 5"+ so we can see some more warnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We all want very thick icing! No skimping! Hopefully Euro delivers a reassuring 5"+ so we can see some more warnings! They will be coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 HRDRPS continues the good news. Still snowing south of Baltimore at 18z Sunday (end of the run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, way jumpy. Held onto the amped west track waaay too long but once it locked in there hasn't been much run over run variance. Maybe that's a strength? We'll know by the end of the year but the Fv3 seems half decent in the short range. I know the folks in the SE think highly of it in the short range with their big storm. Yeah, kind of noticed that about the FV-3. Whether that's anecdotal for this season or only looking at specific events, not sure. I do seem to recall for the December storm, it held on to the idea that the DC/Balt metro areas would be in for moderate to more significant snows for quite some time. Even after nearly all other guidance was clearly going with a more suppressed solution (including, I think, the currently-operational GFS?). Then the FV-3 jumped on the suppressed idea finally. For awhile, it was like a nerve-wracking test of that model for that system...if it continued to hang on to the higher QPF/snow totals here, but we got the suppressed solution in reality, oh boy, that would not have looked good. Fortunately, we didn't have to worry about in the end...that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not really. Fresh, fluffy snow greater than 4" along with clear skies and light winds will really bottom temps out. Euro temps Monday AM look fine. I'm not saying they're wrong, just that low teens is pretty cold for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 HRDPS another slight step back. 12z 18z for the same period 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I like the NBC map 4-7 right now for most of the metro. Aside from the GFS pretty much unanimous agreement in 0.4+ of QPF with decent ratios. Anyone staying up fro Sue Palka? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: HRDPS another slight step back. 12z 18z for the same period Agree it is. Seems like you wanted that to be true. Congrats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wusa not too impressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 LWX map on timing 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Agree it is. Seems like you wanted that to be true. Congrats. Forget the fact it's still snowing beyond 42 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Agree it is. Seems like you wanted that to be true. Congrats. It’s going to be a gametime decision for who sees the best snow. I like our spot and see that shift as mostly noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Forget the fact it's still snowing beyond 42 hours And still snowing after 48 hours for his region as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Agree it is. Seems like you wanted that to be true. Congrats. That user might need to step away from the keyboard for a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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