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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF

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Just now, jackb979 said:

Kind of a dumb question: But at what time/what range do the ops no longer become useful? I feel like after 12z tomorrow we'll be in the "nowcasting" stage and at that point the GFS can only tell us so much, but maybe i'm way off 

Honestly, we're pretty locked in already. The run over run wobbles will continue but the localized areas that do the best won't be known until after the event. Models are in unanimous agreement for the most part. For DC just think 3-5" is the most likely outcome with a chance for more. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

No he is on a mission.  It’s fine right.  If his mission succeeds we get less snow.  Ok. 

Yep, been doing it for several years. Only shows up near game time and only looks on the downside. Has not broken character one single time. Expect more of it every six hours. 

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Just now, Stormpc said:

I think it's pretty much over now. After the 18z EURO  that is. PWC looks to be in a pretty decent position. 

Agreed. South of the potomac and SoMD has the best chance at more than 5". It's nice that models have come to full agreement that everyone gets at least 2". NE MD is probably the only place at risk for less than that but I doubt it now. 

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

I think it's pretty much over now. After the 18z EURO  that is. PWC looks to be in a pretty decent position. 

Yep.  We are good.  Again 3 or 4 or 5.  Doesn’t matter it’s all snow no pingers or waiting on cold air or some other weather voodoo and we are having fun.  If we get skunked I will be the first to meltdown.  Don’t think that’s happening.  

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. South of the potomac and SoMD has the best chance at more than 5". It's nice that models have come to full agreement that everyone gets at least 2". NE MD is probably the only place at risk for less than that but I doubt it now. 

I am prepared for many hours of snow reports from west and south of me before it starts here. It'll be one of those days. psuhoffman will have moderate snow for hours before it gets across the county to me.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Yep.  We are good.  Again 3 or 4 or 5.  Doesn’t matter it’s all snow no pingers or waiting on cold air or some other weather voodoo and we are having fun.  If we get skunked I will be the first to meltdown.  Don’t think that’s happening.  

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

I got 1.8"

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though

DCA was over 2" fwiw\

shows 1.4" in the record

3" for iad

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

Not sure if you consider N. Arlington to be NOVA, but we got 1.5” in November.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

Loudoun got a late upgrade to 4"-6" of snow and verified with a 5" at JYO from a spotter.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

Nov overperformed for me but the last few years have been unkind to DC/NOVA relative to the rest of the area.  Hopefully the max stripe is over NOVA/DC when all is said and done.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. 

I did ok.  From what recall.  Nov snow is a gift.  Didn’t keep on giving however.  As you pointed out a week and half ago this was rain.  We’ve come along way baby!  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3's detailed qpf:

fv3p_apcpn_neus_10.png

 

Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. 

It's also like a mere 30-40 mile bump to get almost everyone south of Baltimore into warning level snow.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I did ok.  From what recall.  Nov snow is a gift.  Didn’t keep on giving however.  As you pointed out a week and half ago this was rain.  We’ve come along way baby!  

I got 1.5 in November and 1.0 from the December squeezer. I'm just glad that waa leaf is not forecasted to arc into PA, rather move nearly west to east from WV. 

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Just now, Stormpc said:

I got 1.5 in November and 1.0 from the December squeezer. I'm just glad that waa leaf is not forecasted to arc into PA, rather move nearly west to east from WV. 

I guess I got that too.  Maybe a shade more.  Got zilch in Dec.  that was a heartbreaker.  10 miles south got inch and better from there.  I did get to claim that from Bristow north to Brunswick Maine was a shutout.  A losers win! 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3's detailed qpf:

fv3p_apcpn_neus_10.png

 

Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. 

Very solid. Looks like euro. Looks like mesos. 18z euro holds within .1 or so range and its all good at that point for a solid 3-5 most places. Im officially in

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's also like a mere 30-40 mile bump to get almost everyone south of Baltimore into warning level snow.

The key will be coastal enhancement. Sometimes there can be an agonizing lull as the waa loses lift/dynamics as low pressure off of NC starts to takeover the show. Other times bands setup further NW than models show and some people get surprised. Nearly every snow event has some tricks in real time. Gotta just let it run its course. 

If we're going to bust it could be from underperforming during the waa precip and getting caught in between with the coastal. It's a very juicy storm though and models have done nothing except bump up the waa totals. 

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feb 6-7, 2003 sort of reminds me of this one...not exact, but maybe a further south version of that one, which also had temps to work with and layed down an easy 5-6".  more of a coastal impact with that system, but i think boom is possible if we can get into a moderate band for a couple hours.

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