Scraff Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Watching the Euro like...Does look like it could be a powder keg potentially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks really good at 120 on wxbell. Southern low is more consolidated and stronger. Vort and h5 panels would imply it's coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Watching the Euro like...Does look like it could be a powder keg potentially. No, it looks more sheared and weaker than the gfs twins but it's a nice interim step towards the promised land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Still lightly snowing at 138. Not sure it's going to all come together. At least it's cold enough that everything sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: No, it looks more sheared and weaker than the gfs twins but it's a nice interim step towards the promised land. Now just seeing that. That’s fine for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 HP to the north is noticeably weaker (1035) compared to 0z (1042). It's not an exciting run but closer to the gfs than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 At 144 snow has dissipated around the metro, still nice and light in Central/Southern VA, little heavier towards Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Euro's big difference compared to ICON/GFS/CMC is it just squashes the shortwave and shears everything out. Nobody is going to like the run but I see it as a step towards a better event in our region. We're still way out in time. Will be interesting to see if the EPS ups the ante with amped solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Euro really isn't too far off a good solution. Just need the low to be a little deeper in the MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro's big difference compared to ICON/GFS/CMC is it just squashes the shortwave and shears everything out. Nobody is going to like the run but I see it as a step towards a better event in our region. We're still way out in time. Will be interesting to see if the EPS ups the ante with amped solutions. I think it's definitely a step in the right direction. Look at west is much better both with the ridging and the wave spacing. Not to mention the original s/w energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Very unusual closed ridge in the intermountain west. Weakness underneath the closed ridge works against us. Honestly, I can't remember a time when a ridge in the west closes off like that and creates weakness. Strange solutions imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro's big difference compared to ICON/GFS/CMC is it just squashes the shortwave and shears everything out. Nobody is going to like the run but I see it as a step towards a better event in our region. We're still way out in time. Will be interesting to see if the EPS ups the ante with amped solutions. Besides, it's not like it's a model that makes quantum leaps anyway, right? Increments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think it's definitely a step in the right direction. Look at west is much better both with the ridging and the wave spacing. Not to mention the original s/w energy. Perhaps the euro tendency to hold energy back in the southwest is leading to the weaker more sheared out solution here. It's weird to see some models with a progressive bias overall to be so much more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Does the Euro phase at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Check this out. See what I'm talking about? The shortwave just compresses to oblivion because of the ridge closing off and opening the door for weakness to string it out. I'm not sold on that evolution at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro really isn't too far off a good solution. Just need the low to be a little deeper in the MS Valley. 500's were less pos tilted and lends to your suggestion. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HP to the north is noticeably weaker (1035) compared to 0z (1042). It's not an exciting run but closer to the gfs than 0z. so predictable but snowtv at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 If the ridge doesn't close off the shortwave would amplify and kick. Not stall and get squashed like pizza dough in a metal roller. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Not going to bother to share the snow map but since I know some people will care it's 1" across the area with Kuchera ratios. SW Virginia does best with 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Ji said: so predictable but snowtv at least It started off great then the wheels came off. I can't think of a single storm in the past that went down like that @ h5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I am positive that there should be some big hits similar to GFS et al in the EPS then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Perhaps the euro tendency to hold energy back in the southwest is leading to the weaker more sheared out solution here. It's weird to see some models with a progressive bias overall to be so much more amplified. Can you think of a time where a tall ridge in the west closes off and allows the shortwave to "back into" weakness like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was just about to say the same thing! Now, with that HP you guys mentioned...would the southern wave being even stronger be a bad thing? (Perhaps I'm not asking the right question, lol) We want the low stronger than we normall would to progress into the cold strong high. I envision something like 35/10 spread just before onset. We don’t want a wacky 30.60 again so gotta watch that far more then any rain issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can you think of a time where a tall ridge in the west closes off and allows the shortwave to "back into" weakness like that? lol...we invent new ways to miss snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS and ICON close off that ridge and are able eject and bundle the energy. So, maybe we are dealing with the euro's tendency to drag it's heels with the energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 JMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: GFS and ICON close off that ridge and are able eject and bundle the energy. So, maybe we are dealing with the euro's tendency to drag it's heels with the energy. I'm not going to get hung up on 1 op @ d5+. It was pretty close to a nice event and still dropped some cold snow on us. All 12z ops showed snow in our region of varying amounts. Hard to get mad at that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Perhaps the euro tendency to hold energy back in the southwest is leading to the weaker more sheared out solution here. It's weird to see some models with a progressive bias overall to be so much more amplified. lol we always use that card when the euro looks like crap compared to the other models. I guess winter is back baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: JMA thats a good sign...the JMA has been anti snow alot in the past few years...thats why i stopped posting it lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats a good sign...the JMA has been anti snow alot in the past few years...thats why i stopped posting it lol Take a look at the mids before assuming it's snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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