Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Today feels like a great day to stay off of the internet Great day for pinewood derby races Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Locally this winter isn't so bad. But when taking into account all of the I-95 corridor it is historically horrible. Hasn't Philly to NYC only had like maybe 2 inches total for the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am going to do that for the most part. Gonna go outside and work on some unfinished projects. If the winter does go in the crapper, I will get all my typical "spring" chores done on the nicer days, so I can just stay in the house during Spring mosquito season, which looks like it will be horrific. Although since we don't have a Nino, maybe we get a dry pattern for a couple months. Cmon man...you can’t let a few skeeters cause you to deb out on Spring. Save that for our winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Can't wait to get home this friday and find the cherry blossoms blooming on the 1st of february! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 And there's the I told you so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 All I will say is nothing has or hasn't changed yet...just sayin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Damn gov websites still down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Wow looks like the FV3, we’re back in business baby! Put the cutlery away. Do I have to stop prepping dinner? 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surface temps at onset make me skeptical but this looks too mf'ing good not to post. Not everybody is cheering but most of us are. Rockville columbia psu deathband on this run. That’s the opposite kind of finger than the one we’re used to getting from the snow gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So true...our winters are rarely if ever wall to wall cold and snowy. We have been and always will be a take what you can get region in winter 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I need about 6-7" to hit climo so won't hit it with this one. Kuchera is overdone because temps are upper 30s at onset. There's going to be some wasted qpf. Very interesting though as now all globals and even the nam are hinting at some heavy snow for a time and surface should be good by then. A blend of all guidance right now is very encouraging for the 95 and close burb corridor. DCA may have a legit shot at topping climo. Not bad for a "disaster" winter. Keep in mind most places north of Baltimore are at around 20% climo. In perspective if you had about 20% or 5-6” total so far you probably would think of this winter differently also. But it’s an imby sport. I understood those in the western VA screw zone going negative last year but that didn’t change my opinions based on the snow imby. I don’t expect any sympathy. But I do think the different classification of this winter based on location is justified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Keep in mind most places north of Baltimore are at around 20% climo. In perspective if you had about 20% or 5-6” total so far you probably would think of this winter differently also. But it’s an imby sport. I understood those in the western VA screw zone going negative last year but that didn’t change my opinions based on the snow imby. I don’t expect any sympathy. But I do think the different classification of this winter based on location is justified. Couple undeniable bad breaks north of I70. 90%+ of the sub is doing well including southern areas. North of 70 has a legit gripe. No shortage of gripes from south of 70 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Keep in mind most places north of Baltimore are at around 20% climo. In perspective if you had about 20% or 5-6” total so far you probably would think of this winter differently also. But it’s an imby sport. I understood those in the western VA screw zone going negative last year but that didn’t change my opinions based on the snow imby. I don’t expect any sympathy. But I do think the different classification of this winter based on location is justified. I think my point is less about this winter and just a general statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Couple undeniable bad breaks north of I70. 90%+ of the sub is doing well including southern areas. North of 70 has a legit gripe. No shortage of gripes from south of 70 tho. Some people gripe no matter what. Same last year when the northeast 1/3 ended up around median snowfall but some up here were still whining like it was a god awful dumpster fire winter. The SW 1/3 of our forum had a legit claim to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think my point is less about this winter and just a general statement I actually tagged you by accident. Sorry. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Some people gripe no matter what. Same last year when the northeast 1/3 ended up around median snowfall but some up here were still whining like it was a god awful dumpster fire winter. The SW 1/3 of our forum had a legit claim to that. For me, anything below 20 inches (Baltimore average) isn't a great winter. And to be fair, the way a lot of us got to 15 inches or so was the most dissatisfying way to get there: not one time did I have to shovel. A winter where I don't have to shovel is not a good one in my book. (at least this winter I shoveled once for the first time since 2016!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 just got a solid hike in at patapsco (muddy with icy patches). it's chilly out. this next system isn't going to be one of those "start out at 48 degrees and pray the cold air gets here in time". the temps shouldn't need to drop too much and the ground shouldn't be too warm. i guess i'm in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: For me, anything below 20 inches (Baltimore average) isn't a great winter. And to be fair, the way a lot of us got to 15 inches or so was the most dissatisfying way to get there: not one time did I have to shovel. A winter where I don't have to shovel is not a good one in my book. (at least this winter I shoveled once for the first time since 2016!) Never said it was good. I ended up ~10” below my avg but exactly at median (35”) ...exactly like Baltimore (15”) And it came about the same way. And I wouldn’t say I had a good winter. Mediocre would be my adjective of choice. But some up here were acting like it was a complete disaster. That’s reserved for winters where Baltimore ends up in the single digits on snowfall or I don’t break 30”. That’s the bottom 30% winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Never said it was good. I ended up 9” below my avg but exactly at median...exactly like Baltimore. And it came about the same way. And I wouldn’t say I had a good winter. Mediocre would be my adjective of choice. But some up here were acting like it was a complete disaster. That’s reserved for winters where Baltimore ends up in the single digits on snowfall or I don’t break 30”. That’s the bottom 30% winters. Do you average like 40”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Never said it was good. I ended up 9” below my avg but exactly at median...exactly like Baltimore. And it came about the same way. And I wouldn’t say I had a good winter. Mediocre would be my adjective of choice. But some up here were acting like it was a complete disaster. That’s reserved for winters where Baltimore ends up in the single digits on snowfall or I don’t break 30”. That’s the bottom 30% winters. True. I think mediocre is indeed a better term (I think the close misses just made it feel worse than that, lol) Hard to imagine Baltimore doesn't break double digits this year...we only need 3 more! But of course...my preference is the average of at leadt 20" as opposed to the median! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Regarding the upcoming warm spell that is being modeled in the LR on the ensembles: I have a perception that when models latch onto torches at d10+ it seems that it verifies much more often than not. On the other had, it seems like modeled cold spells are much more ephemeral. It just seems like all that modeled cold that has been locked in for a while can go "poof" well into the medium range. And when cold spells do occur, it seems like they kind of sneak up on the guidance Does anyone else share this perception? I suspect (and hope) that it is just selection bias: since I like cold and hate warmth, I notice when warmth is modeled and verified, and when cold is modeled and does not verify. But I am curious if others feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Top 4 government shutdowns...each lasting longer than 12 days...all followed by winters that had a big snowstorm. Dec. 1995-early January 1996 being the longest and the last time a shutdown went from December to January...and we all know what happened there!) But shall the trend continue?...well, it seems we have a little over a month to find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, T. August said: Do you average like 40”? I adjusted the numbers just now after double checking my records. My 11 year avg since I moved here is 45.2”. My median is 35” and last year I had 34.7” so it was pretty much a median winter although it came in a crappy way with a string of fringe jobs and then a really late spring storm. But still I can’t call that crap. Crap for up here is if I don’t break 30” which happens about 3/10 years. Using coop data from Westminster, miller’s, and Hanover gives a 30 year mean ~40” but the spot I live (on top of Dug Hill at 1050 feet in extreme northeast Carroll a little north of Manchester) gets more snow than all 3 of those spots. Sometimes I even get more snow than Manchester in really marginal elevation dependent storms. So it’s hard to tell what the real longer term avg is. It’s probably closer to 43-44” though as 2010 when I had 101.7” is still skewing the avg up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: True. I think mediocre is indeed a better term (I think the close misses just made it feel worse than that, lol) Hard to imagine Baltimore doesn't break double digits this year...we only need 3 more! But of course...my preference is the average of at leadt 20" as opposed to the median! You can expect anything you want but median is a better indicator of what’s normal or likeky than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted the numbers just now after double checking my records. My 11 year avg since I moved here is 45.2”. My median is 35” and last year I had 34.7” so it was pretty much a median winter although it came in a crappy way with a string of fringe jobs and then a really late spring storm. But still I can’t call that crap. Crap for up here is if I don’t break 30” which happens about 3/10 years. Using coop data from Westminster, miller’s, and Hanover gives a 30 year mean ~40” but the spot I live (on top of Dug Hill at 1050 feet in extreme northeast Carroll a little north of Manchester) gets more snow than all 3 of those spots. Sometimes I even get more snow than Manchester in really marginal elevation dependent storms. So it’s hard to tell what the real longer term avg is. It’s probably closer to 43-44” though as 2010 when I had 101.7” is still skewing the avg up. Hot damn 43-44”. That’s ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can expect anything you want but median is a better indicator of what’s normal or likeky than the mean. Never said I expected it (I'm aware of the mean)...just that I prefer it. Now if I somewhat expect anything...based on our history it's this: that we hit about 20" at least every 3-4 years (and a few times hitting at least that 2 or 3 years in a row like we did between 2013/14 and 2015/16) ...now, not surprisingly, we hit the median more often! Only a few times did we go longer than that...Overall, Baltimore history has a "we're due" pattern...so we could be close if we ain't there already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, T. August said: Hot damn 43-44”. That’s ridiculous. @HighStakes made a great post the other day about it. He lives like 1/2 mile from me. Northeast Carroll County along Parr’s Ridge has a unique micro climate. We get localized snowstorms a lot. Or enhanced snow from coastals if the wind is right. And that doesn’t even take into account the marginal setups when the elevation keeps us snow when it’s raining everywhere else. There was a storm in Feb 2013 where it was like 50 all day then a little vort sparked an area of convective showers and suddenly it was 32 and dumped 4” in 2 hours. Everyone around here was just rain. It was only above like 800 feet that got snow and above 1000 that got 3-4”. There are so many storms like that up here. The 8” in October 2011. 9” in late March 2014 when all around was only 1-2”. An April storm where I had 3.5” and even a mile away off the ridge there was nothing. I witnessed the micro climate before I moved here in 2004. Marcus used to talk about the snow up here and I went on a snow chase that January. There was a clipper that left nothing in northern VA and like 2” in Westminster but he was saying 6” here. (Btw he lives about a block from where I am now). Sure enough there was some snow when I got unto Carroll county but suddenly coming up the ridge north of Westminster to Manchester it was like I crossed into Valhalla. Manchester has at least 6” otg. Then the next week while I got 5” in northern VA Manchester got another 8”, 2”, and 3.5” from consecutive storms. I came up one more time and was like omg this is another world. There was like 16” snowpack and drifts and huge piles everywhere. That experience stuck with me and when I got a job in Baltimore a few years later I started looking to move to this area. Haven’t been disappointed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Well it’s deep winter here in Snowshoe. We came up for the weekend and it snowed pretty much all day today. Light stuff but perfect for skiing. Nice little snow chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Well it’s deep winter here in Snowshoe. We came up for the weekend and it snowed pretty much all day today. Light stuff but perfect for skiing. Nice little snow chase. Now the snowshoe Cheat mtn micro climate puts mine to absolute shame. Sucks it’s so remote and hard to get too. Love snowshoe but when it takes so long to get there I might as well just go up to Vermont. If there was an easier way I’d go way more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Now the snowshoe Cheat mtn micro climate puts mine to absolute shame. Sucks it’s so remote and hard to get too. Love snowshoe but when it takes so long to get there I might as well just go up to Vermont. If there was an easier way I’d go way more often. Yeah it took us about 4 hrs to get here from Arlington but that’s with everything going right- no traffic, no stops, roads clear. I could imagine it being a lot different if the weather didn’t cooperate. The last hour or two were on some windy mountain roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Well it’s deep winter here in Snowshoe. We came up for the weekend and it snowed pretty much all day today. Light stuff but perfect for skiing. Nice little snow chase. I highly recommend anyone feeling snow starved to head to Snowshoe, Canaan, or Deep Creek. It’s another world there vs the rest of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Take it the site went down around 10 or 11 last night? Weird coming on this morning and seeing all the posts 4 and 5 hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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