January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We getting there now..

I know it's taking about a week longer to get there then the GEFS was...but we KNOW darn well the GEFS almost always rushes pattern changes.  That doesn't  mean it's not coming but the GEFS is notoriously too fast with significant longwave pattern changes.  However, I like the EPS version post pacific pattern flip way better, and it makes much more sense, and having the better guidance showing that is a good sign.  The GEFS was continuing to try to bring a tightly wound TPV into Canada and get it trapped under the high latitude blocking and above the westerlies in the split flow.  I know we love to talk about the PV but that scenario would have been awful.  A tightly wound PV up there would have only enhanced the west to east progressive flow under it and we would have had a constant flow of vorts flying through the lakes under the PV locking up all the cold in Canada despite the blocking up top.  Yea eventually with that blocking the PV likely would have dropped but then we could have gone right into an arctic blast like 1985 without much snow.  PV's are great for cold but not necessarily snow.  I much prefer the Euro look...building heights across Canada to our north...favoring highs to our north and "cold enough" air during prime climo over the CONUS.  We dont need a PV over us and -30 850's to snow.  If we have a high to our north and a system coming up the coast with a normal air-mass in place we will be in January and February.   People think we need some major negative departures because our "average high" is 40 but that isnt true.  On a sunny day with an "average" airmass in January or February it might be 40 but our average 850 temps are below freezing and the dewpoint is 22 so add precipitation and suddenly its 30 and snowing.  An average airmass in prime climo if the storm track is good and there is a high to the north is just fine.  

[frd]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Hopefully the euro is wrong with the TC that is forecasted to craw through N Australia and creep right through Darwin.  That would send a spike in the SOI by D7 or so.

Hey @poolz1 where did you see or hear that from ? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

35 minutes ago, frd said:

This is sweet  Notice the increased spacing between daughter vortices growing

Let me know when the daughters are 18 please. This sort of thing isn't really suitably appropriate for me to be looking at. Is it ok to say they are developing nicely or is that just weird?

[poolz1]

Thought this was an interesting graphic....Shows the lag on effects from the SOI.  

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Let me know when the daughters are 18 please. This sort of thing isn't really suitably appropriate for me to be looking at. Is it ok to say they are developing nicely or is that just weird?

You could say that Ralph, but maybe you want to block your IP address :-)  

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey @poolz1 where did you see or hear that from ? 

It's an op run so take it FWIW....

[frd]

Just now, poolz1 said:

It's an op run so take it FWIW....

Thanks

[frd]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

It's an op run so take it FWIW....

Sorry , forgot to add,  I thought the Indian Ocean was calming down convection wise, not sure what I was thinking.

I have not spent much time looking over there recently, but I am super happy the SOI is tanking. Please no more side tracks.  

Last night got side tracked looking at erupting Volcano and reading about the connection between the increased volcanic activity and the low solar decline we are in. ( if you believe that stuff )  

[WhiteoutMD]

Looking at the 6z op runs today we might start to dry out over the next two weeks after our rain tomorrow.  Not totally dry just no more QPF booms dropping 1+ inches of rain on us every 3-5 days.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That was the "front loaded" winter many seem to pine after. It pretty much died after December. And how is it remembered? 

It was front loaded, but it was bitter cold and very little snow.  NOT what us front-loaders pine for.  Combine 1989 cold with 2009 snow, and would consider it a great year.

[poolz1]

@frd Dont get me wrong...I dont claim to fully grasp some of these things....so, I am happy to be corrected when I spout off something about the SOI...strat or really anything other than longwave patterns! lol  Still learning daily but it's what keeps me hooked on this odd hobby. 

IMO, I think the IO convection is calming down but this sneaky storm forecasted would crash pressures in Darwin and you can see the higher pressures out near Tahiti....thus increasing the easterlies. Who knows tho.....We all know what a forecasted 7+ day hurricane track is like around here.  Usually not on the money... 

[Scraff]

So much good news for us to start the weekend, but I’m really more concerned about Chuck’s forthcoming update on soil temperature in Europe. 

[MD Snow]

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1081193019876036608?s=21

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Awesome post showme!

I have to ask.  Is there potential for the interaction of all three jets in such a violent displacement  ?  

And for the record, I am not suggesting the Perfect Storm by asking that, just wondering outloud about possible outcomes. 

I imagine severe cold is also on the table as well possibly, even though you are talking more about cyclogenesis it seems. ( maybe a cold powder type storm in the cards in the next 6 weeks ) 

 

As they say, the devil is in the details. So as far as a possible interaction between 3 jets no idea. I am focused more on the broad overall pattern in the N Hemi. If what I suspect does occur we would be talking major cold outbreaks somewhere as the heat in the mid-latitudes gets injected into the poles displacing the cold southward into the mid-latitudes. We would basically see a flip from what we are currently seeing temp wise between the pole and the mid-latitudes. Now whether the amplification of the long wave pattern would be beneficial to us is still up in the air. But I will say I do like the placement of the three pv's and where the models are possibly hinting at dropping them for the possibilities for our region. The biggest wild card out of them all though is probably the one placed west of Alaska.

At this point I am pretty much in wait and see mode to see if the models even start to move towards a displacement southward of a pv. Only when I see that will I start looking into the details.

[Ji]

So my goal was a jolting shift at 0z last night or I'm out....Ji am I in or out?

Give it till 00z Monday

[Jandurin]

repeat ad infinitum

[frd]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The biggest wild card out of them all though is probably the one placed west of Alaska.

At this point I am pretty much in wait and see mode to see if the models even start to move towards a displacement southward of a pv. Only when I see that will I start looking into the details.

HM did a nice set of posts about the transition

< "As the main vortex tries to congeal (not successful) over Siberia with baroclinic lobes into the N. Pacific, a closer vortex will produce a meridional tendency over the NE Pac. ">

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Finally some real potential at the end of this mornings 6Z GFS. The pattern is light years better than anything we have seen since December. Bring on the PSU mega pattern change!

 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

So my goal was a jolting shift at 0z last night or I'm out....Ji am I in or out?

Give it till 00z Monday

I like where the ens are going but trusting the shift to greener (or whiter) pastures won't happen until after a good event. I'm still a bitter deb until further notice 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Oh great. So I am sure we can look forward to more bitching about the GFS from Ji and the other usual suspects in the coming year or two. 

It's not really a fair comparison IMO.  Always feel bad for NCEP.  Decisions that were made many moons ago have handicapped our ability to compete.  The GFS is a hydrostatic model that based on that foundation will struggle to deal with intricate details regarding topography and other meso scale features because it is basing its forecast on atmospheric pressure levels and then basically approximating and estimating the topography.   That does end up leading to errors exponentially over time.   But the GFS has become a very good model...we blast it only because it is being compared to the ecmwf which continues to improve its own physics over time and does so from a stronger foundation and so they will remain ahead.  In that way it's like my younger brother trying to "catch up to me in age" and being upset that he is always behind.  If we compare the GFS to other hydrostatic models OR to any guidance from 10 or 20 years ago we would see it as a modern marvel of science.  But instead we devalue it by continuing to compare it to the euro.

The euro on the other hand was developed as a non-hydrostatic system, and that is why it takes so much longer to run and is MUCH more expensive.  I am not even sure that option was on the table to NCEP when making the decisions way back when to develop their forecasting system.  Our public funding limitations and public availability and exchange of info is vastly different and creates challenges the ecmwf doesn't have to deal with.  

I am not sure as much about the new FV3 system.  I know it started out in the 90s based on a hydrostatic system also in some collaboration with NASA but I have heard there may be some non-hydrostatic principles incorporated now.  But even if it were fully non hydrostatic, it would be a first step into that world where the euro has had many years to continue to perfect and fine tune their system.  We are at a great disadvantage and most of that disadvantage is not the fault of NCEP.  

I know you are not one of those that blasts the GFS or NCEP about it but some do and just thought I would throw that out there.  Sorry rant over.  

[tombo82685]

The punt back to later January on the weeklies from the mid/late december runs IMO was attributed to missing the amplitude of the mjo and also possibly down welling the ssw effects to fast. The thing I'm curious about as we head into February is if the ssw effects propagate downward to the troposphere. IMO the weeklies are keying in on that occurring hence all the high lat blocking. At some point in late late January into February looking at the OLR on the VP plots, the tropical forcing isn't going to be conducive for cold. You can see by week 2 we are in a phase 2 look on them. Granted forecasting convection this far out is always a crap shoot in trying to figure out amplitude or what not. The strengthening of velocity potential close to the IO tells me MJO wave may possibly start to get stronger again towards start of February as we head into the IO and towards the maritime continent. Thats where the SSW effects may become key in keeping a favorable pattern going forward.

[aldie 22]

What is typical around here is that as we wait for a pattern change to the better before we actually get that pattern change to the better we will start looking for the timing of the breakdown of the not yet materialized better pattern. What a group

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For all the panic we had a couple of days ago about the MJO we continue to see improvements. Seeing better amplitude and farther progression through the cold phases before it dives into the COD. Wouldn't surprise me to see it drive deep into phase one, at least, before it takes a dive into the COD. Question at that point becomes where does it emerge again. If we do in fact see it get deep into one that probably supports a reemergence, at worst phase 5, but more likely into 6 as opposed to 3 and 4 that it supports now. This difference is worlds apart on the implications for February. Also the further progression now into the cold phases leaves us in a better PAC state as the MJO influences subside while in the COD.

 

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

JB got his mojo back

JB has been a total emotional mess the last week.  Behaving like the emotional baseline of this thread vacillating between "its coming" to total despair every model run.  He must really be invested in this winter for whatever reason...  no idea what, maybe its really important to JD's baby the pioneer model, maybe they are at a turning point with wxbell and their clients...maybe he is thinking he is close to the end and wants to go out on top...no idea really just speculating but for whatever reason he is really really upset at the prospect of this winter not going his way and has gone full tilt emotionally lately.  Kinda almost feel bad for him....almost.  

[nj2va]

I just watched an entire DT video for the first time (and it was actually good).  And I learned how to read those SSW wind reversal forecasts.  Anyways, he ended his video comparing this winter to 2009-2010 in terms of the timing between the December storm in 2009 and the Jan 2010 event (40+ days) as well as the upper level patterns of Jan 2010 to this January.  I’m not saying this will be a repeat of 2010 and no two winters are alike but 09-10 did feature quite the boring, PAC puke period too.  Only difference is we missed out on a December WSW storm by less than 50 miles.  

 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

JB has been a total emotional mess the last week.   He must really be invested in this winter for whatever reason...  

Probably because he thinks cold weather and snow "owns the libs" and provides "evidence" that global warming is just a LMSMBDSM conspiracy.  

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

Makes sense, I acknowledge @tombo82685 post above about a possible move back to the warmer MJO phases late month, but it may not happen to that degree, or as he states the SSWE may over power it.  ( @poolz1 made some comments too about the SOI, somewhat related too down the road re the MJO possibly. )    

Even if that progression were to happen with the MJO,  we will have, as Isotherm stated,  already rinsed out the warmth, so at best a short re-load, or like your ideas here psu no ill effects at all. 

That far ahead is going to be really hard to nail right now. Maybe we just get various periods of cold and colder and no real warmth.   

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He doesn't have exclusive rights here to that projected flip date. 

The bus is gonna need more then one driver if we want to make good time!  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Kinda almost feel bad for him....almost.  

You feeling OK ?  :-)  

I think he needs to verify for his client base possibly. 

And maybe, just maybe, he has had it with those on social media calling his forecast this year a bust.  I am neither pro or against JB. He is in good company with his cold and snowy seasonal, if he goes down, everyone else does too. ( not the normal I know )    

 

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are going to be a few "ifs and buts" in here but if the MJO goes strongly into phase 8/1 before dying and the SOI continues to drop and then remains negative... after that if the next MJO wave is weak (as is likely if the soi is negative) it wouldn't matter much if it goes into warm phases.  Actually some of the really good analogs the best snow periods came during a weak run through warm mjo phases AFTER a run through cold helped set off the chain reaction.  History suggest if we get a pattern change to a nino base state with strong high latitude blocking a weak warm phase mjo wave will not have much impact.  Barring another duel pole SSWE to drive an MJO amplification I think we will be ok.  

Unlike some on here that delve deep and follow the MJO religiously I have been more a casual observer over the years. But the one thing I have picked up over the 20+ years is the tendencies that we see in regards to what the models show run to run and what actually is realized. When I watch the recent run after run of the MJO output lately and how it is behaving it reminds me of what I have seen many times over the years. And that is we will see the MJo verify much deeper into the cold phases before it dives into the COD. When it emerges I would not be surprised if in fact we see it move into 7 and cycle through the colder phases once again. If in fact it does emerge into the warmer phases (really don't see it going into 3 or 4, bets are it will be in 5 or 6) it will be at low amplitude and quickly move to the cold phases. Seen it play out time and again. But this winter has been an enigma when it comes to the PAC so who's to know for sure.