LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 89-90 was close as well. A little in Dec, but Jan and Feb were mostly snowless that year and March was in the mid to upper 80s lol another one is 97-98 the only snow we got actually came after the equinox, Met and Astro winter snow was something like 0.5" Philly got a T for the entire season. Strong -NAO in 97-98 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The is a meteorological winter record 15-consecutive days where the MJO was locked in Phase 5. That's never happened before since the MJO was recorded daily beginning in 1974. The closest case to that was December 20, 2013 through January 2, 2014. Don, what do you think caused this? Something highly unusual happening in the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don, what do you think caused this? Something highly unusual happening in the Pacific? Looks like the warmer SST’s. On the role of anomalous ocean surface temperatures for promoting the record Madden‐Julian Oscillation in March 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066984 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2001-2002 was a la niña winter You can't compare it to this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the warmer SST’s. On the role of anomalous ocean surface temperatures for promoting the record Madden‐Julian Oscillation in March 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066984 We are in a real bad positive feedback loop in the tropical Pacific, the mild forcing is just going to keep repeating over and over. I think we’re in big trouble TBH. The new JMA just did a huge flip to a very mild pattern right through the end of this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2001-2002 was a la niña winter You can't compare it to this one We need to get away from comparing winters (and making forecasts) solely based on ENSO. It's what has caused issues with so many LR forecasts (we criticize the CPC for doing this and yet we do the same thing.) It's more like what are the ground conditions like and where might we go from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Notice how many of the MJO forecasts try to loop the MJO back toward the Maritime Continent during mid-January. While the JMA is erratic past week 2, it’s also showing the forcing returning to a 5-6 look week 2. So perhaps the mid-January period may be more uncertain now than it was last week. We will see how things turn out since LR MJO forecasts can be very tricky. What would it take to break such a feedback loop if we are indeed in one? A big SSW? (which does not seem to be in the cards right now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are in a real bad positive feedback loop in the tropical Pacific, the mild forcing is just going to keep repeating over and over. I think we’re in big trouble TBH. The new JMA just did a huge flip to a very mild pattern right through the end of this month ain't looking good that's for sure....modeling continues with the same pattern for 2 weeks plus...time's ticking... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: ain't looking good that's for sure....modeling continues with the same pattern for 2 weeks plus...time's ticking... Pattern will most likely change but it's so frustrating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 no cold air anywhere.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 By the way, for those of you who look at OLR, I don't think these screams that we're in P5 in a traditional sense right now. You've got dateline and W.Pac convection. What you haven't been able to do is shed Maritime continent convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, what do you think caused this? Something highly unusual happening in the Pacific? That's a complex question. A leading hypothesis is that Rossby waves slowed the MJO's propagation. However, understanding of MJO dynamics is still limited. Other variables including SSTAs (with atmosphere-ocean coupling) are plausible. Not too surprisingly, model forecasting skill is fairly low when it comes to the MJO relative to forecasting, among other things, 500 mb patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That's a complex question. A leading hypothesis is that Rossby waves slowed the MJO's propagation. However, understanding of MJO dynamics is still limited. Other variables including SSTAs (with atmosphere-ocean coupling) are plausible. Not too surprisingly, model forecasting skill is fairly low when it comes to the MJO relative to forecasting, among other things, 500 mb patterns. The possibility of a feedback loop throws another monkey wrench into the works, Don. Makes one think something big needs to happen to break us out of the vicious cycle and why persistence is paying off right now. Some patterns are just too stable and need something massive to break them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: no cold air anywhere.... Even as the map implies cooler readings than the first week of January, the first half of the month appears very likely to be much warmer than normal as a whole. Running the sensitivity analysis against the latest guidance, the implied probability that the January 1-15 period will be above normal is around 87%. The implied probability that it would be 5° or more above normal is approximately 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Even as the map implies cooler readings than the first week of January, the first half of the month appears very likely to be much warmer than normal as a whole. Running the sensitivity analysis against the latest guidance, the implied probability that the January 1-15 period will be above normal is around 87%. The implied probability that it would be 5° or more above normal is 60%. Thats going to take a lot of work then for the month to average out below normal or even normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I hope the pattern don’t change in late March and we start spring off with wet snow and cold rain events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s looking like this could be the first time since 2013 that NYC fails to drop below below 20 degrees from Dec 1 to Jan 15. It would also be only the 4th time that this happened. 1 2019-01-15 24 13 2 2013-01-15 22 0 3 2002-01-15 20 0 - 1932-01-15 20 0 It’s quite remarkable. Half of those cases will come 2010 and later, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Last Feb, the MJO got stuck in a warm phase and we were warm and rainy most of the month outside of a president's weekend 4 incher than melted in a day Good news with that is we survived a terrible 6 WEEK pause in winter and still pulled off almost 200% of snowfall average. We already have 6 inches. Feb 1 will basically be the 6 week point. IF it flips Feb 1 AND we have a period like last March through April, we will be at or above average snowfall. Probably higher than last year due to the earlier timing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thats going to take a lot of work then for the month to average out below normal or even normal. I agree. It would probably require an even more dramatic pattern change than happened in 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. It would probably require an even more dramatic pattern change than happened in 1966. I also agree. This pattern is going to require quite the upheaval. And from the look of things it doesn't appear as if the change is coming all that soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s quite remarkable. Half of those cases will come 2010 and later, too. Just another sign of climate change. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weak El Niño in 94-95 also had very warm SST’s in the CP/WP with the MJO getting stuck in the unfavorable phases. But the cold that winter got pushed back to February. Not saying that will be an exact analog since no 2 years are identical. I can’t even imagine the calls for 19-20 to resemble 95-96 if indeed this winter ends up totally busting. Of course right now 19-20 looks highly unlikely to be a La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I can’t even imagine the calls for 19-20 to resemble 95-96 if indeed this winter ends up totally busting. Of course right now 19-20 looks highly unlikely to be a La Niña. lol some have been talking about 66-67 for next winter if this ends up being like 65-66, so thats yet another analog to look at. For now, I'd be looking at 12-13 especially with the November storm and early January warm pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s looking like this could be the first time since 2013 that NYC fails to drop below below 20 degrees from Dec 1 to Jan 15. It would also be only the 4th time that this happened. 1 2019-01-15 24 13 2 2013-01-15 22 0 3 2002-01-15 20 0 - 1932-01-15 20 0 Yet another match for winter 2012-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yet another match for winter 2012-13. Yeah, 12-13 was essentially an undeclared back-loaded El Niño winter. Had the classic El Niño progression following the brief El Niño conditions during the early fall. The winter is over chorus got really loud just before the big February event. 05SEP2012 20.7 0.3 25.5 0.6 27.5 0.8 29.2 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Saturday's rain event may have a convective component as the potent upper low currently over TX (and its steep lapse rates) passes through the region. Initial WAA could produce a thunderstorm or two in the early morning, but it appears more likely that thunderstorms will feed into a redeveloping deformation band as the shortwave goes negative-tilt while passing S of LI later in the morning or early afternoon. The surface low deepens ~10mb in 12 hours as well. NAM 3k goes wild with widespread 1-3" rainfall over NYC and local amts over 4", though most other guidance predicts up to 1" of rainfall. The location of all this is likely to change given the mesoscale nature of this forcing, but it could make for an interesting start to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Saturday's rain event may have a convective component as the potent upper low currently over TX (and its steep lapse rates) passes through the region. Initial WAA could produce a thunderstorm or two in the early morning, but it appears more likely that thunderstorms will feed into a redeveloping deformation band as the shortwave goes negative-tilt while passing S of LI later in the morning or early afternoon. The surface low deepens ~10mb in 12 hours as well. NAM 3k goes wild with widespread 1-3" rainfall over NYC and local amts over 4", though most other guidance predicts up to 1" of rainfall. The location of all this is likely to change given the mesoscale nature of this forcing, but it could make for an interesting start to the weekend. Are any of these storms potentially severe? Imagine a severe t storm warning... in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Are any of these storms potentially severe? Imagine a severe t storm warning... in January! No, low levels are very stable; the instability showing up is based near 3000-4000' above the surface. Could be some perky winds on NJ/LI coasts but nothing widespread or severe. Could be some small hail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Maybe it’s my imagination but it seems like the crappy patterns last a lot longer than the great patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Still interested in the 8th, east based -NAO continues to trend stronger on Gfs. Could be a redeveloper, SNE and especially CNE look to benefit the most right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now