January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

And many were worried about our snowfall prospects following the record early November 12 snowstorm. I guess memories of the late October 11 snowstorm and what followed were still on their minds. But the ENSO following the early fall El Niño was different that the 11-12 raging +EPO La Niña.

11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been.  10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess.  I’m guessing it was a lag.  We’ve seen the lag effect many times before.  96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess.  Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd think we'd possibly get 2 periods of 2-3 weeks each with a warmer interval in between (if we're lucky)  Alternatively we get one good 3 week period in (like 15-16) and then it's an early spring.

At this point even a single 2-3 week period would be a major improvement. I live in NE Mass. Only 1 1/4 of snow during the last 45 days. At this point it's going to take either significant storms or a good  2.5-3 month stretch to  get to normal snowfall for my area.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been.  10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess.  I’m guessing it was a lag.  We’ve seen the lag effect many times before.  96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess.  Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals 

I believe 10-11 was just a continuation of the record Atlantic blocking which began in June 09. For whatever reason, it is rare to get 2 cold La Nina’s together. 93-94 was effectively a weak modoki El Niño with the warm neutral conditions in Niño 4. We have seen how several  times 0 to +0.5 c ENSO SST’s behaved like an official weak El Niño. In 12-13 how we got  the El Niño  winter progression following the September 12 weak El Niño conditions.

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd think we'd possibly get 2 periods of 2-3 weeks each with a warmer interval in between (if we're lucky)  Alternatively we get one good 3 week period in (like 15-16) and then it's an early spring.

If we can hold some sort of El Niño semblance I think there’s a tendency for spring to be mild.  There aren’t a ton of cases of back to back El Niño’s (I think just 4 in the last 80 years) but I believe they all had warm early springs following the first winter.  1953 and 1991 I think are two 

[NittanyWx]

21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

that convection is pumping the pac subtropical ridge and that keeps the flow across the ocean compressed. thus we can't get a s/w to wave break and get the -epo rolling 

Yeah that's a chunk of it for sure...other component is AAM.  At least these AAM trends look a bit better of late..

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been.  10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess.  I’m guessing it was a lag.  We’ve seen the lag effect many times before.  96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess.  Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals 

JB has mentioned on several occasions that the cool down following the 15-16 Nino wasn't as significant as the cool down following other El Ninos.  Actually I think the pattern during the last several weeks has been rather typical of an El Nino. It will be interesting to see if the Nino weakens or strengthens as the year moves along.

[NycStormChaser]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If we can hold some sort of El Niño semblance I think there’s a tendency for spring to be mild.  There aren’t a ton of cases of back to back El Niño’s (I think just 4 in the last 80 years) but I believe they all had warm early springs following the first winter.  1953 and 1991 I think are two 

I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time

[MJO812]

Gefs has a nice signal for a coastal on the 13th. Pattern looks great midmonth.

[NJwx85]

We need at minimum a flash flood watch for most of the area from late tonight through late tomorrow. 

[North and West]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time

I would not mind that after the snow we received in Morris County last March (we had at least 40", when you count April 2nd, give or take). Of course, super fun to watch it happen... not so fun when the little league fields aren't playable yet, or your backyard is muddy, or the kids just want to go outside. 

It would bemuse me if we had a Red Flag warning in March or April (we usually do) if it turns warmer, if only after all of this rain.

[CIK62]

How long do you think the benchmarks set in Nov. will hold up?

ie.  a 6.4" surprise Snow event on the 15th, and a 15* low near Thanksgiving. 

I mused a month ago here, that neither of these would set a record if they held up for the entire winter season---and that was scary.

The only snow record in play would seem to be 'Fewest Measureable Snow Events' in a season.   I am assume that it  is greater than one time!   For the temperature, how about 'Fewest 32 Degree Lows' and 'Fewest Highs 32 and Under'(each unknown by me).  Normal is like 80/20 or so, Oct-May?

We are 17/2 now.

[purduewx80]

Euro coming in hot for the 13th/14th; a lot like the past few runs of the EPS. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

[Gravity Wave]

Well, it's nice to finally have a potential threat to track, at least. Euro gives us some nice cold air to work with before the storm as well.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Euro coming in hot for the 13th/14th; a lot like the past few runs of the EPS. 

Gefs and geps have a good signal for the 13th.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could shift warmer in a flash like the GEM and FV3 with the pacific so unfavorable.

 

The PAC is no longer unfavorable after the 10th.

You shut off the flow here in W Canada and driving the ridge thru Montana. 

These SW`s are all going to start shifting colder.

Different regime after the 12th +

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

You `re in p8 so the ridging in the SE is gone as the NEG is diving off the W/C and not into the 4 corners. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the same thing that the EPS was indicating for the middle of next week before it corrected to a warmer track. I don’t really trust these models with anything frozen near the coast past day 5 with such an unfavorable Pacific. But if it should survive to within 120 hrs...then game on. But I don’t want to buy so far out in time.

 

 

 

 

 

The corrections are post Jan 10.

 

Look at what is waiting for the system after the 10th on the EPS,

 

Then both the GEFS and Euro OP dive this that NEG off the WC and drive the ridge between Boise and Montana

 

 

The PAC is slower here and that SW never makes into the 4 Corners. The 9th had this in front of it 

 

 

Again the 13th will have this out ahead of it. 

 

 

Pre game / Night and Day 

[NJwx85]

All that strong convection down South today should help to pump the ridge and drag the heavier rains and dynamics further West for tonight and tomorrow. 

[CIK62]

Are you really expecting a change of 22 degrees, from 52>30 in one run, on D!0 no less, to hold up?    Most likely the EPS is embarrassing itself for the fourth time recently, with these one-run blowoffs.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Are you really expecting a change of 22 degrees, from 52>30 in one run.    Most likely the EPS is embarrassing itself for the fourth time recently, with these one-run blowoffs.

 

Is the GEFF is embarrassing itself too ? 

 

Guys , wake up the warm up is ending. 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Look how the Euro is struggling from run to run past 120 hrs with such a fast Pacific flow.

 

 

Chris , the corrections began at 12 z yesterday post d10 , so I think you are looking at a different 500 evolving here.

I think you are going to see this continue in that direction as the MJO continues thru p8

I always like to wait until we are inside 5 days before I even look at E/C storms , but I think this is pretty good look off OBX 

 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The control looks just like the GEM. 

Plenty of time to sort it. 

[MJO812]

Models should trend colder due to the favorable mjo projections.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the warmer risks with a more amped up system like the GEM  and 0z Euro. But if the Euro can hold serve till under 120, then it will be something to watch. I am just tired of these cold solutions day 6-10 that get pushed back. 

 

EVERY storm since mid DEC shifted N , so I feel your pain. The only thing I kept alluding too away was that being in p5 the ridging should have been expected. 

Now I think the error is east once past the 12th or so . We will see I think the risk here is east not west this time in the L/R. 

I agree let`s circle back in 5 days.

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We need at minimum a flash flood watch for most of the area from late tonight through late tomorrow. 

new NAM doesn't have all that much precip-

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

new NAM doesn't have all that much precip-

Garbage

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Garbage

I just looked at all the models, most are similar-RGEM does have a bullseye over NJ....

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

with SHOULD being the keyword - 13th to 14th is too early and that coastal the Euro shows on the 13th won't verify like that it - either won't happen or be another system to go west of us - when is the last time a day 9 model run worked out ?

I'm not buying ANYTHING (Cold, snow etc) until it's within 5 days-so many teases going back to mid-December only to verify warm and wet.