PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The one thing that I am glad about is that this is pretty much par for the course for many El Niño’s during the early winter. March is the New December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: torchy look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: torchy look lol / horrible analysis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: torchy look looks can be deceiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 It`s not so much the " look " , it`s not everything at 18k that appears red is a warm ridge. That`s cold HP Brian extending out of E Canada. Look underneath you are BN at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: It`s not so much the " look " , it`s not everything at 18k that appears red is a warm ridge. That`s cold HP Brian extending out of E Canada. Look underneath you are BN at 2m Good. Now we need a storm to attack it...(my worry is a flip to cold/dry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Good. Now we need a storm to attack it...(my worry is a flip to cold/dry) ??? that map is right after the Blizzard here it is showing a day previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Good. Now we need a storm to attack it...(my worry is a flip to cold/dry) Good patterns at 500 don`t have to produce snow. Always a risk. El Nino - so we should get some S stream action tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ??? that map is right after the Blizzard here it is showing a day previous LOL-that's an op run 9-10 days out your referencing. Pure fantasy. (the above map is the EPS- which are much less enthused about the storm if you really want to go there.) My point was in a general sense-go back to the winter of 12-13, we finally got cold and it was dry for 15 straight days...let's keep the tropical feed and hope for some threats... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 RGEM coming in really wet for tomorrow-most other models are much drier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL-that's an op run 9-10 days out your referencing. Pure fantasy. (the above map is the EPS- which are much less enthused about the storm if you really want to go there.) My point was in a general sense-go back to the winter of 12-13, we finally got cold and it was dry for 15 straight days...let's keep the tropical feed and hope for some threats... why don't you post a map of the EPS precip - here is the OP with the same 850 look as the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see the warmer risks with a more amped up system like the GEM and 0z Euro. But if the Euro can hold serve till under 120, then it will be something to watch. I am just tired of these cold solutions day 6-10 that get pushed back. The mjo will be in favorable phases. Different from the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Ensembles also show the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The mjo will be in favorable phases. Different from the past. careful with absolutes on MJO phases...we got stuck in phase 5 for the better part of a month..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: not according to Brian I said they were "less enthused" . Check out the individual members-most are N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: I said they were "less enthused" . Check out the individual members-most are N and W I don't have access to the images - whats the link ? or post them here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM coming in really wet for tomorrow-most other models are much drier: i think a takeaway from all the guidance today is that there is still a lot of spread in where the QPF max lies. can't wait til it's actually cold enough for snow and we're shoulder shrugging 24 hours in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not according to Brian Not as good as the euro but still shows a signal. That's all we can ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Not as good as the euro but still shows a signal. That's all we can ask for this far out. day 9 model run is inaccurate shouldn't even seriously consider it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL-that's an op run 9-10 days out. Pure fantasy. The euro ensembles are much less enthused about the storm. My point was in a general sense-go back to the winter of 12-13, we finally got cold and it was dry for 15 straight days... totally untrue. if you look at the clustering of canadian, euro and gfs ensembles, the vast majority favor the cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: day 9 model run is inaccurate shouldn't even seriously consider it...... ensembles after day 5 or 6 is the way to go....a day 10 op run storm could disappear on the next run....models have shown a day 10 storm for a month now and it verifies rainy and warm....let's get it to withing 5 days and then bark.... - not sure I can post the EPS members here-behind a pay wall.... PB? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: totally untrue. if you look at the clustering of canadian, euro and gfs ensembles, the vast majority favor the cold storm. The EPS members were mostly N and W of NYC though...a few showed a hit this far south....(didn't view the CMC or GFS so not sure there) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The EPS members were mostly N and W of NYC though...a few showed a hit this far south....(didn't view the CMC or GFS so not sure there) N and W with what exactly...the upper trough? The mean takes the low from offshore SC to offshore Novia Scotia. I'd say that's a cold track; in fact, I'd be more concerned with another SE/Mid-Atlantic special with that look than a warm solution. Literally the actual vast majority of ensembles have a cold storm d9 or 10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: N and W with what exactly...the upper trough? The mean takes the low from offshore SC to offshore Novia Scotia. I'd say that's a cold track; in fact, I'd be more concerned with another SE/Mid-Atlantic special with that look than a warm solution. Literally the actual vast majority of ensembles have a cold storm d9 or 10. good luck having that verifying - chances are the setup will be completely different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: good luck having that verifying - chances are the setup will be completely different it very well may be, but it's significant to me that the ensembles have for several runs in a row now shown a colder coastal storm at that point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: it very well may be, but it's significant to me that the ensembles have for several runs in a row now shown a colder coastal storm at that point. Agree Big signal for a storm but track is uncertain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFS are correcting to more troughiness/colder not in the 10+ day range but in the short to middle ranges, which are far more accurate. This is very much due to the recent SOI plunge and MJO progression into phase 7/8. The chance of seeing some snow during the 2nd week of Jan is pretty good IMO. I expect these corrections to continue for LR forecasts as well unless the MJO somehow returns to phase 5/6 (unlikely given effects from SSWE, Modoki Nino influences by then). I'm not saying it'll necessarily be a sustained cold/stormy pattern (that will happen late Jan/Feb), but it could offer some opportunities and chillier weather than we've been used to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 17 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: That winter was epic for the central MA and aggravating for everyone north of the PA turnpike. Almost everyone in the northern MA ended up getting one big hit but it was hard not to be disappointed with all of the close calls and sharp cutoffs. Even the 2/26 storm hit the northern folks, but we walked away with 8 here. Not bad, but not the double digits posted further north. It was much the same last winter, too far west for the Jan storm ( got about 6-7 ) a little south for the first two March storms and a little north for the final March storm ( but almost got a foot ) and did get a bonus April event of 3-6 that was a nice cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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