Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Yeah... again, it smacks as assimilation vs physical materialization of input causing that variance... I don't see another source. The problem in a governing sense is that that situation mid week is highly sensitive to subtle errors ...errors that ultimately have to come from the initialization data, because the Physical equations that guide the outcomes don't change themselves. It's gotta be that wave mechanics situated over the lower GOA ... it's nearing the west coast. Ha...I'm smiling at the moment because it's really true - when one is starving they focus so intently on the crumbs of salvation. If we were in one of those patterns where we're getting snow with least excuse imagined ...we wouldn't even be having this discussion about Tuesday. Anyway, yeah Scott... in that same vein...I've long since cast asunder any expectations and even that 20 minutes of snow two mornings ago had it's place for me. It's awesome when one gives up - losing expectation will set you free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What amount is advisory ? WWA in non ice storm i was thinking more part deux of this thing .....part 1 ....most realists would be thrilled if 1-2” doesn’t morph into dusting to a slushy coating or see this weaken any more in the 2.5 -3days left till it begins Haha, well I wouldn't really entertain part 2. That may be a dendy to dryslot special too. I;d rather see what Ukmet and Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... again, it smacks as assimilation vs physical materialization of input causing that variance... I don't see another source. The problem in a governing sense is that that situation mid week is highly sensitive to subtle errors ...errors that ultimately have to come from the initialization data, because the Physical equations that guide the outcomes don't change themselves. It's gotta be that wave mechanics situated over the lower GOA ... it's nearing the west coast. Ha...I'm smiling at the moment because it's really true - when one is starving they focus so intently on the crumbs of salvation. If we were in one of those patterns where we're getting snow with least excuse imagined ...we wouldn't even be having this discussion about Tuesday. Anyway, yeah Scott... in that same vein...I've long since cast asunder any expectations and even that 20 minutes of snow two mornings ago had it's place for me. It's awesome when one gives up - losing expectation will set you free! It's like a very small version of the 1980s. when 3-6" was the "white zone" on snow maps...which meant good to my weenie eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 That's not far from something tasty on the gfs next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's not far from something tasty on the gfs next weekend. Canadian looked great then drove the low inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's not far from something tasty on the gfs next weekend. Better if stays out there for a few more days instead showing a hit only to get this at game time............... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Canadian looked great then drove the low inland LOL, better than 00z though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Canadian looked great then drove the low inland Blend the two, On second thought, Just toss the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Better if stays out there for a few more days instead showing a hit only to get this at game time............... Perfect image for this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Perfect image for this winter! Been plenty of that, And more of this. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Perfect image for this winter! Actually, not much has even been that close to giving us anything. So far Lucy hasn't even brought the ball out to play really. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Actually, not much has even been that close to giving us anything. So far Lucy hasn't even brought the ball out to play really. Wait. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Looks like we descend into a colder regime for a more prolonged spell after the mid week systems move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like we descend into a colder regime for a more prolonged spell after the mid week systems move out. Yeah. Although we may flirt with borderline pattern for a couple of days near the 15-17 or so as things shake out...overall I don't think we can complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Might be a couple of SHSN or a squall tomorrow aftn in some areas. Yes and an outside chance of thin band of INVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 At least fraud threats trump bone dry patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Although we may flirt with borderline pattern for a couple of days near the 15-17 or so as things shake out...overall I don't think we can complain. You must be new here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like we descend into a colder regime for a more prolonged spell after the mid week systems move out. Looks pretty damn good going forward, Some held out patience while some others swan dived the tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Looks pretty damn good going forward, Some held out patience while some others swan dived the tobin. Often looks good going forward if you look out far enough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I love persistent negativity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 GEFS continue to conduct the weenie express. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I love persistent negativity. I hate all this rain and I dont like the look of the MJO since it looks like it flies through phase 8 and back into phase 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: GEFS continue to conduct the weenie express. NAO region really starting to look weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAO region really starting to look weenieish. Yeah and a nice PV lobe in Hudson Bay. If you loop the H5 anomalies from about day 8-9 on, you can see the troughing near the GOAK slowly retro to a better favorable Aleutian position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 We are on the cusp of winter beginning. 40 days late. But at least it’s here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 PV near Hudson Bay is optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate all this rain and I dont like the look of the MJO since it looks like it flies through phase 8 and back into phase 5. Nothing shows that. Euro: a few renegade members in 5 but most remain in cod pointing to a return on the left side of the diagram. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Oh boy oh boy oh boy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Idk I read the people would be freaking out if this rain was snow when a foot was forecast, would have had 7 with a 10 to 1 ratio. .68 here and raining pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Idk I read the people would be freaking out if this rain was snow when a foot was forecast, would have had 7 with a 10 to 1 ratio. .68 here and raining pretty good. Funny you should mention it. Garbage pickup today with a holiday Tuesday. Had to dump water before flipping the cover back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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