weathafella Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Hey Kevin, stoughton isn’t a town near the water. First thing I do is take a look at the overnight model runs. Seeing nothing changed and then read the bs from people taking a post that the poster admitted as tongue in cheek and running wild. ths place can sure suck sometimes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...frustrating. It’s sucked where we’ve been but I like where we’re going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think 99" over 2 months is as unlikely as this implies...but 2015 did it in one month, which is. Still, odds are against either. Yes. A one month period spread between the two months. Almost certainly, 2015 was more remarkable than the Great Snow of 1717. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Cosgrove is claiming that the SSW is going to "fade away" over the next 10 days...makes zero sense, since it takes 10-14 days to even have an impact...and the PV is just now splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Don, I know you are the master of stats. do you have any information on how the start to this winter Stacks up against other down years in our area? I will check it out later today. I still expect a robust comeback from the dismal start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 MJO progs better again today. People are whacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosgrove is claiming that the SSW is going to "fade away" over the next 10 days...makes zero sense, since it takes 10-14 days to even have an impact. He’s a pretty good MET...I hope he’s wrong on that though??? I agree it doesn’t make sense, but then again...he’s the Pro. Must be seeing something that is leading him to say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 They can fade, but the effects if the pathway allows, continue to downwell. There is no immediate response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Well, Ive got my "Likes" ready for when the pattern changes...and if it doesnt, well my plan B is to hang out in NNE and stalk PF JSPIN and ALEX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They can fade, but the effects if the pathway allows, continue to downwell. There is no immediate response. He must mean that the SSW itself is fading because its peaking today...I though that he meant the impacts are fading. It looks like Ventrice is saying that it will focus in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He must mean that the SSW itself is fading because its peaking today...I though that he meant the impacts are fading. It looks like Ventrice is saying that it will focus in Siberia. As long as the AO is negative. The 500 pattern seems similar to what I see at 50mb. Keep a chunk of cold near Hudson Bay and once the Pacific improves, I think we'd be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As long as the AO is negative. The 500 pattern seems similar to what I see at 50mb. Keep a chunk of cold near Hudson Bay and once the Pacific improves, I think we'd be ok. TBH, I think this is less risky for our snow chances than if it had been more toward our side. It worked out last year because it was over the N ATL, but the last thing that I want is a PV near NNE...hello 2004, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wouldn't that argue good for us since suppression would be less likely? Or does that mean "all the cold air" stays there? Less risk of suppression, and less chance of record cold (who cares). Sorry Jan 2004 afficionados. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, weathafella said: MJO progs better again today. People are whacked. We are emotionally selfish beings. It takes lots of work to change our natural flaws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 I think having a SSW focused away from us during climo peak of a weak modoki will make for a pretty cool time to be in sne if you like snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He must mean that the SSW itself is fading because its peaking today...I though that he meant the impacts are fading. It looks like Ventrice is saying that it will focus in Siberia. That's been known since November 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We are emotionally selfish beings. It takes lots of work to change our natural flaws. I guess after 72 years I have my snow weenie side but there are so many more meaningful things in life. Give me a few months and I’ll let you know what they are....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 GEFS certainly look a lot better than the op next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Part of the weenie meltdowns is we can't buy a snow event even in these mediocre to crappy patterns. Usually we pull one or two events out of those...even if they are 3" that melt in 2 days. We just haven't done anything so it starts getting everyone irrationally pessimistic. They become the gamblers who are convinced that because the roulette wheel came up black 8 times in a row, they have an advantage by betting black next spin...the casino then laughs to the bank with their 5.5% advantage. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 As much as I hated getting boned (relatively speaking compared to the rest of most of SNE) the past several years, it has made me apathetic these days. I vividly remember the tough winters for snow lovers in the 80's/early 90's but if I end up experiencing another stretch like that then so be it. It won't be any worse than all the disappointments of recent years...actually I know it will be easier to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS certainly look a lot better than the op next weekend. All we care about at this range. How are they in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: All we care about at this range. How are they in the LR? Looks good. I'm throwing this out there now, but 16-17 or so will get dicey. Think of it as the ups and downs. The downs are slowly getting better. One more down maybe 16-17 and then back up we go for a little while at least. The GEFS continue to look better than the EPS, but the EPS are slowly getting there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Part of the weenie meltdowns is we can't buy a snow event even in these mediocre to crappy patterns. Usually we pull one or two events out of those...even if they are 3" that melt in 2 days. We just haven't done anything so it starts getting everyone irrationally pessimistic. They become the gamblers who are convinced that because the roulette wheel came up black 8 times in a row, they have an advantage by betting black next spin...the casino then laughs to the bank with their 5.5% advantage. Well ...when models continue to struggle w fast extremely long zonal flow, it’s not unlikely that a modeled phase 7,8,9 days out goes poof , as many times as they pop up. Because of this pathetic winter in Sne people have paid more attention to 8-10 day “storms” so there is 2 reasons ...we can assume they are going to crap the 1-2” threats have been a mix of bad luck and people looking at them w weenie glasses (“ 2 more snow storms , another “1-3”) going forward now , we can see how more favorable flow becomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosgrove is claiming that the SSW is going to "fade away" over the next 10 days...makes zero sense, since it takes 10-14 days to even have an impact...and the PV is just now splitting. Actually Cosgrove wrote" as of now the SSW looks to be in fade mode in the 11-15 day period" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Actually Cosgrove wrote" as of now the SSW looks to be in fade mode in the 11-15 day period" Yea. My misquote...but its actually peaking now and will be fading over the next week. Larry meant the actual warming, not its sensible impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea. My misquote...but its actually peaking now and will be fading over the next week. Larry meant the actual warming, not its sensible impacts. You know Ray, I was looking at the clown map for the event coming up and seeing those totals for North......hard to keep the faith down here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well ...when models continue to struggle w fast extremely long zonal flow, it’s not unlikely that a modeled phase 7,8,9 days out goes poof , as many times as they pop up. Because of this pathetic winter in Sne people have paid more attention to 8-10 day “storms” so there is 2 reasons ...we can assume they are going to crap the 1-2” threats have been a mix of bad luck and people looking at them w weenie glasses (“ 2 more snow storms , another “1-3”) going forward now , we can see how more favorable flow becomes It is unlikely that the favorable period goes to crap...climo says so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 512high said: You know Ray, I was looking at the clown map for the event coming up and seeing those totals for North......hard to keep the faith down here...lol Which event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which event? if I'm correct looking on the event for Tuesday-wednesday? on the other threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 512high said: if I'm correct looking on the event for Tuesday-wednesday? on the other threads Yes, too bad we haven't been able to catch a break, but that has nothing to do with long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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