512high Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, too bad we haven't been able to catch a break, but that has nothing to do with long term. lol so close yet far away.............(doubt it will tick anymore to our advantage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It is unlikely that the favorable period goes to crap...climo says so. It goes both ways, too...I remember headed into February 2011, people didn't think we could lose coming out of that epic Jan 2011 stretch...but after that last early Feb event, it all went poof and we couldn't catch a break the rest of the way. La nina climo....even 1996 to a lesser extent. It recovered, but it wasn't as prolific. 2008 and 2009..same for us in sne...poof. Nina climo. There are alway exceptions, of course...last year and 2001 being two prime SSW attributable examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I kind of like Kevin's 'hot' take on winter ... To see such a banal impression from someone that usually needs 0 cause for inspiration is encouraging in a way... Anyway, ...what in the f is the operational Euro doing? My god... I realize we're suffering some data outages do to this on-going appropriations thing but as of last registry ... there are 0 hemispheric factors that connote a solution like this 12z beyond mid week. Really baffling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I guess the present modeled MJO curve from the panoply of the guidance given here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml ... do in fairness "suggest" something my be wrong. The curve of the wave has jolted robustly into the margin between the 7th and 8th quadratures of the WH diagram. Weee... buuut, it summarily decays ... like, abruptly so. That abruptness will be interestingly tested over the next 24 hours for one. But, it may be a flag that the Pacific isn't really in constructive wave interference for wave spaces trying to enter the western hemisphere. For those that have been following this... that may mean the Pacific WPO-NP-EPO arc is not really good for winter enthusiasts ... as it's instruction down wind over N/A's mid latitudes may not favor +PNA, whether the MJO wave is trying to pass through or not. This operational Euro really looks like it's operating two distinct paradigms concurrently. Above roughly the 50th parallel ...there is a pallid semblance to cold loading pattern over the Candadian shield, while below that, raging -PNAP boner is pounding our indignity from the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 "pounding our indignity from the Pacific" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "pounding our indignity from the Pacific" yeah yeah yeah... well, it may be that it's just having issues in a pattern change? Or, ...maybe the pattern change air apparent by everything discussed over the last couple -a weeks, while real ... don't quite have the power to pull the PNAP out ... I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 That Mid Atlantic special next weekend on the 12z EURO should add to the casualty list here if it happens. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah yeah yeah... well, it may be that it's just having issues in a pattern change? Or, ...maybe the pattern change air apparent by everything discussed over the last couple -a weeks, while real ... don't quite have the power to pull the PNAP out ... I dunno I was laughing with, not at...that was funny. The PNA issues aren't a huge suprise given the near exquisite match to the 1969 warm ENSO event...I think the ramification of this maybe that both our snowfall ceiling may be lowered a bit, and floor raised a bit. IOW...I think the any fear of a suppressed season a la 2010 should be about gone, however the odds of 2015 redux are probably lowered some. But we'll let it play out..should see some intense NAO assist eventually. The key for the mid atl will be to sync that with a PNA pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I kind of like Kevin's 'hot' take on winter ... To see such a banal impression from someone that usually needs 0 cause for inspiration is encouraging in a way... Anyway, ...what in the f is the operational Euro doing? My god... I realize we're suffering some data outages do to this on-going appropriations thing but as of last registry ... there are 0 hemispheric factors that connote a solution like this 12z beyond mid week. Really baffling... What’s my take ? I’m confused 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s my take ? I’m confused He means that your expectations are reserved for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He means that your expectations are reserved for once. That's usually a bullish leading indicator. Strong inverse correlation between DIT's expectations and snowfall a few weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Eps is workable at the end of the run but not great or epic id say. Probably best for ma/se relative to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Snowfall through today, January 6, for Boston during some of the most prominent analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the right. 2015: 4.5" 110.6" 2005: 18.0" 86.6" 1978: 9.7" 85.1" 1969: 6.0" 53.8" 2018: .2" ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snowfall through today, January 6, during some of the most prominent analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the left. 2015: 4.5" 110.6" 2005: 18.0" 86.6" 1978: 9.7" 85.1" 1969: 6.0" 53.8" 2018: .2" ? you leaning to one specific? (I was just glancing at pictures I had from Jan-Feb-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 512high said: you leaning to one specific? (I was just glancing at pictures I had from Jan-Feb-2015 I think 1968-69 looks best right snow, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was laughing with, not at...that was funny. we're laughing passed each other ha... I mean "yeah yeah yeah" as a continuation of the commiseration. Too much is lost in a toneless media - Anyway, just had a packing pallet squall here... Pretty cool watching it rolling in...as the fractured sky lights were being obscured like some grand stage operator closing the curtains. Sheets of pallets waving down the street as the white noise elevated through the trees. It reminded me of circa teenager ...when dad makes you go out and rake the lawn during the season's first chilly air mass of mid autumn. Even smelled the same way... heh. I guess par for the course for a winter that cannot commit for any reason imaginable since that cold snap of November. Perpetual autumn You know... I was musing to self about this the other day... it almost seems similar in some ways to 2012... Got cold, cashed in ...then cashed out... Just did it a month later in climo... Obviously there are no leading correlative paramters ...I'm just pattern of sensible porking is quite painfully similar thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Really only 0.2" at BOS this winter so far?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Really only 0.2" at BOS this winter so far?! According to scooter, yea. They had a couple of inches, but that is the official number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: we're laughing passed each other ha... I mean "yeah yeah yeah" as a continuation of the commiseration. Too much is lost in a toneless media - Anyway, just had a packing pallet squall here... Pretty cool watching it rolling in...as the fractured sky lights were being obscured like some grand stage operator closing the curtains. Sheets of pallets waving down the street as the white noise elevated through the trees. It reminded me of circa teenager ...when dad makes you go out and rake the lawn in during the season's first chilly air mass of mid autumn. Even smelled the same way... heh. I guess par for the course for a winter that cannot commit for any reason imaginable since that cold snap of November. You know... I was musing to self about this the other day... it almost seems similar in some ways to 2012... Got cold, cashed in ...then cashed out... Just did it a month later in climo... Obviously there are no leading correlative paramters ...I'm just pattern of sensible porking is quite painfully similar thus far. Been to any good clinics of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been to any good clinics of late? I live alone... what can I say - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He means that your expectations are reserved for once. I just think it’s almost impossible the way things look to get anything over 50 or maybe 60” anywhere in SneSNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snowfall through today, January 6, for Boston during some of the most prominent analog seasons. Followed by eventual seasonal totals to the right. 2015: 4.5" 110.6" 2005: 18.0" 86.6" 1978: 9.7" 85.1" 1969: 6.0" 53.8" 2018: .2" ? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Tick tick tick.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It goes both ways, too...I remember headed into February 2011, people didn't think we could lose coming out of that epic Jan 2011 stretch...but after that last early Feb event, it all went poof and we couldn't catch a break the rest of the way. La nina climo....even 1996 to a lesser extent. It recovered, but it wasn't as prolific. 2008 and 2009..same for us in sne...poof. Nina climo. There are alway exceptions, of course...last year and 2001 being two prime SSW attributable examples. In 96 I had 40 inches the first 13 days of Jan before the torch. It can does happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Nice burst of snow here with temp drop of 6°F in about 15 minutes. More flakes than I've seen since November, lol. Dusting on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Nice burst of snow here with temp drop of 6°F in about 15 minutes. More flakes than I've seen since November, lol. Dusting on grassy areas. Burst of flakes here but no evidence. Colder air moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Man this pattern blows such a hard and fat one. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man this pattern blows such a hard and fat one. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man this pattern blows such a hard and fat one. just great....thought you found the holy grail, watching my puddles freeze....good times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, 512high said: just great....thought you found the holy grail, watching my puddles freeze....good times No I’m speaking in the present. Just up to now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man this pattern blows such a hard and fat one. How many beers ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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