RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably one of the first times i even looked, I didn't know SV had it.........lol, Wonder what the JMA and NAVGEM have? j/k I lift the covers and take a sneak peak too, admittedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It seems to depend on temps. Typically I think it's closer to 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 but in very cold soundings where the inverted cold layer gets below -8C or -9C, then we tend to get those "pixie dust" elements fogging up the precip curtain...poorly formed ice crystals below the warm layer. They add to the ratios so it's more like 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1. Oh...riight... Heh, I'm out of sleet practice hahaha. That's true though ... foggy sleet versus clear sleet - definitely have noticed a difference there.... You can even see it in the sleet particles themselves... come to think about it. Sleet balls look opaquer in that dust shroud fall, and I wonder if even they, themselves, have a slight puff factor - for lack of better word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I lift the covers and take a sneak peak too, admittedly. Dutch oven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 canadian shows how it can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Appetizer Friday, funky Murphy during a bit of a lull Saturday, then party Sunday as we get off the schnide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: canadian shows how it can go wrong I think we've been discussing all that anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It rings a bell ... Hey Brian what's ur snow pack up that way... ? how pervasive - is that "connected" continental with Canada... I'm curious because as Scott or maybe it was Will and I were mentioning, having a "fresh" high N should enhance the ageostrophy anyway but the old 'coming off a snow pack' argument (which I don't mean to explode ...) also adding... It's another thing ... the GFS' notion of a flatter wave maybe correct but it could still be off with the low level frontal slope/wedging extending S ... adding to icing potential. 6"...we still have snow in trees too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think we've been discussing all that anyway yeap, still on the table for sure.. cutter..how about OTS? I would think that would be more of probability.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 6"...we still have snow in trees too. amazing... nothing down here... not even a snow bank with turbid turds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS trying to move towards euro this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: yeap, still on the table for sure.. cutter..how about OTS? I would think that would be more of probability.. Mm... my hunch? I'd suggest more of a needle thread icing event ... and whatever transpires, probably quicker than the lavishing 36 hour fantasy spread from some of those correctable 00z solutions. Just for now... definitely reserve the right to augment that impression from D6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Gfs op defintely not as amped as previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: amazing... nothing down here... not even a snow bank with turbid turds This is looking north so those blue spruce caked in snow have been feeling the sun for a few days now. Our last snow was the 4-5" from last Tue/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 4:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro /EPS our most reliable . I’m planning on a snowy Sunday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GFS trying to move towards euro this run. That is a truly bizarre evolution there between 150 and 160 hours... That's a Miller B relocation scoring from N to S, Usually, M-B systems rematerialize along a W-E axis due to BL resistance that is N-S... Weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 still has center going over the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 lol that GFS run would be a disaster.. good think we are ages away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: still has center going over the cape.. It was a big move. Hopefully euro stays the same for 6 days.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Now lets get it to track over ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 That track on the GFS would lend to some mass suicides for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Know what ... forget the icing... for now anyway. Yeah, a band 'ill be in there but... these narrow fast moving waves tend to compress (also) mix/transition zones ...making the plausibility for icing to be dominate storm profiles, less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Anyway ... I'm off... Go Pats! I'm pretty sure folks don't wanna here that prediction - haha. Let's just leave it as, I'm hoping for a positive bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Powderfreak, throw a photo of Stowe in the thread 150” on season at mountain , repeat that a few times. 150”. Magical . Pack at ridiculous levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Nice run there for the west and interior. Gfs warm bias thermals at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I’d roll the dice with that look 7 days out. This looks like a potential moderate deal. Moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 This has the look of an eventual toasty H7-H75 layer all over it so I'd like to see that H85 0C line much further south with time. The GFS can't see those inside 2d...nevermind d6-7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Powderfreak, throw a photo of Stowe in the thread 150” on season at mountain , repeat that a few times. 150” Pack at ridiculous levels 70" depth has settled to 65" now a couple days after the storm. Honestly that 151" is likely low for the high terrain 3000+ feet. Smuggs next door is at like 190". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: canadian shows how it can go wrong The way this winter has gone, even though it is the Canadian, it is most likely right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This has the look of an eventual toasty H7-H75 layer all over it so I'd like to see that H85 0C line much further south with time. The GFS can't see those inside 2d...nevermind d6-7. Keep bumping this...i have a feeling you are on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 lol...wtf is the GFS doing in the low levels of this storm? Heavy, heavy narcotics. 31F to 3F in 6hrs with snow flying. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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