RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Beauty for CNE, NNE, and NNY. Bridge jumping for everyone in SNE. Not really. Many of us would take a historic sleet pounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Beauty for CNE, NNE, and NNY. Bridge jumping for everyone in SNE. No, you wouldn't be able to climb up on the bridge to jump because it's frozen in a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even 1994 had lulls in the Feb 8-11 event. Most it it fell in two pulses about 24-30 hours apart. I could see one weak pulse Friday and then the main show Sunday through early Monday morning. Exactly my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What in the world is that? Some of these models have been going all Ron Washington on New England. Sleet removed ratios added. Lol I would pay to see this. Basically a Valentine’s Day east, foot of sleet for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I actually think 3-5" of sleet would be pretty interesting. Interesting? Perhaps. Memorable? Yes. Enjoyable? not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I actually think 3-5" of sleet would be pretty interesting. Doubt that's what actually happens though. 4 to 1 ratio would produce a foot of sleet. I had 6 to 8 Valentine’s Day it was like shoveling beach sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No, you wouldn't be able to climb up on the bridge to jump because it's frozen in a crippling ice storm. That's not ice....surface cold layer is too elevated and too cold. IP baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Exact my point. Even with the Lull it snowed the whole time which is exactly my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: It made a ton of sense. Sure it can happen once in a great while..but that is the exception rather than the rule. But into it..maybe this time it really happens. We’ll see. Sure, I remember 94...but as I said..not the rule, and that was 25 years ago, hence my point. We’re not talking about a slow moving coastal that stalls S of LI so we pray for 48hours of continuous snow. When you get an overunning event along a frontal boundry, it’s actually more likely for a long duration event consisting of multiple pulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol sleet removed geezus how come nobody posts this one Like I said, not a fan of the look as currently modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I’d take a foot of sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Like I said, not a fan of the look as currently modeled. Start stocking up, lol GFS 15 has you to James with over 2 inches of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re not talking about a slow moving coastal that stalls S of LI so we pray for 48hours of continuous snow. When you get an overunning event along a frontal boundry, it’s actually more likely for a long duration event consisting of multiple pulses. Bro I know exactly what we’re talking about... To me these long duration looks usually evolve into seperate systems/parts going forward, and they usually are more of a disappointment from what we all think happens in the accumulation department. That’s my opinion because I’ve seen this many times...but it’s fine for different ideas to be thrown around...we’ll see how it plays out going forward. I think we’ll see two distinct separate systems/pulses as this evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Start stocking up, lol GFS 15 has you to James with over 2 inches of ice Already told TBlizz and Butters my gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah those systems usually have a lull but I think they are arguing semantics. 3 days of snow to one person means "off and on snow for 3 days", while the next poster thinks it means 72 straight hours of snow one at the ASOS. It never stopped snowing where I was, totally light but your under the radar beam dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: It never stopped snowing where I was, totally light but your under the radar beam dust There was a pre Christmas event around the south shore about 10-12 years ago where it snowed for like 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 All i know is we still don't know, Looking at the last 24hrs of runs their all over the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: There was a pre Christmas event around the south shore about 10-12 years ago where it snowed for like 3 days I think we had a couple this decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: All i know is we still don't know, Looking at the last 24hrs of runs their all over the board. All in good fun this morning, Not 1 solution to hang your hat on. Leon storms are the best though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: All in good fun this morning, Not 1 solution to hang your hat on. Leon storms are the best though Only if you’re on the right side of the gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 There's a pretty good chance this ends up being a general frontal passage with a lot of rain/mixed precip out ahead of it and bitter cold behind it. However the icing scenarios are equally possible. You have a massive supply of low level cold that's being pushed southward against a would be cutter and an ample moisture supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Only if you’re on the right side of the gradient. Well yea but we are referring to Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re not talking about a slow moving coastal that stalls S of LI so we pray for 48hours of continuous snow. When you get an overunning event along a frontal boundry, it’s actually more likely for a long duration event consisting of multiple pulses. Thanks for explaining this to him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 to 1 ratio would produce a foot of sleet. I had 6 to 8 Valentine’s Day it was like shoveling beach sand. I got about 6" of sleet last year in an event. It was something special. Id rather have it fall as snow though if given the choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks for explaining this to him. It’s No problem..I know the situation, I was giving my experiences and how things more often than not play out around these parts. This will evolve further as we go through the next few days...all options on the table as we know. Glad there’s something to track..that’s the important thing imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d take a foot of sleet . Your driveway banks would still be there in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ha ha ha ( golf clap ) ... Boy... didn't take long to wind y'all up, huh. You've gone from rocking, blood-shot eyed, straight-jacket padded cell apoplexy, to already visualizing in greed how this going to maximize.. on a temporal dime. I dunno, I just still don't like the compressed look to the flow everywhere - don't worry...there will be a time and place along the synoptic history of the Universe in which the compression won't be as concerning, at which point that auto-mantra will blow less hard than the Nor'easters the models keep trying to paint during said compression. Here's the rub... the compression is not an absolute mitigation. It's a reducing factor ... Here's how it works for the less than knowing: excessive wind velocity in the ambient geostrophic medium, absorbs embedded particular S/W mechanics by lowering their d(v) within the flow. With lower d(v), that (physically) requires less restoring jets ( you can look these up in the total cyclonic model) Weaker restoring = weaker resulting cylogenesis. d(v) = (wind velocity of the ambient - wind velocity maximum of S/W) ... (this is paraphrased mathematics describing the partial derivatives of Navior Stokes) It's alright ...even the watered down version is little pricey for some readers ... But that processing is not necessarily canceling out S/W mechanics either. It's just taking some away - that's the "take away" (puns always intended). I'm not opposed to an event through the time frame ... I brought it up myself, yesterday, that the previous trend probably should not apply to the time span in question. I just would reign in the maxing - and perhaps the more important impetus being ... strive for an objective approach early in the game to help mitigate the "let down" factor. Should this this end up being less... and definitely if the fast flow seems culpable, I'm going to drub this post back out of the past and bold this paragraph If not... it would be rare to have an open wave like the para GFS create that much output, by torquing a closing mid level closure around inside such a hurried medium. That should be dubious - just sayn', because the mechanical taxation/concepts above should be absorbing it's ability to do so. I guess ... if the wave comes off the Pacific in the upper tier power ... boy, it'd half to be really f'n powerful because the compression issue back east is a super-synoptic, planetary wave consideration ...and S/W don't typically tell those where to poop in the woods. Having said all that... modulate toward less compression? No problem... put eight scoops on a kiddie cone, I won't care as much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Your driveway banks would still be there in June. Exactly. Pack for months and months and months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Exactly. Pack for months and months and months What if it lasts through the start of severe season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Of course, lest we forget, the GFS (not as sure about FV3) is pretty wretched with thermals, so take whatever it spews out with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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