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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It seems to depend on temps. Typically I think it's closer to 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 but in very cold soundings where the inverted cold layer gets below -8C or -9C, then we tend to get those "pixie dust" elements fogging up the precip curtain...poorly formed ice crystals below the warm layer. They add to the ratios so it's more like 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1. 

Oh...riight... Heh, I'm out of sleet practice hahaha.

That's true though ... foggy sleet versus clear sleet - definitely have noticed a difference there.... You can even see it in the sleet particles themselves... come to think about it. Sleet balls look opaquer in that dust shroud fall, and I wonder if even they, themselves, have a slight puff factor - for lack of better word

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It rings a bell ...

Hey Brian what's ur snow pack up that way... ?  how pervasive - is that "connected" continental with Canada...

I'm curious because as Scott or maybe it was Will and I were mentioning, having a "fresh" high N should enhance the ageostrophy anyway but the old 'coming off a snow pack' argument (which I don't mean to explode ...) also adding...  It's another thing ... the GFS' notion of a flatter wave maybe correct but it could still be off with the low level frontal slope/wedging extending S ... adding to icing potential.

6"...we still have snow in trees too.

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

yeap, still on the table for sure.. cutter..how about OTS? I would think that would be more of probability..

Mm... my hunch? I'd suggest more of a needle thread icing event ... and whatever transpires, probably quicker than the lavishing 36 hour fantasy spread from some of those correctable 00z solutions. 

Just for now... definitely reserve the right to augment that impression from D6+

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS trying to move towards euro this run.

That is a truly bizarre evolution there between 150 and 160 hours... That's a Miller B relocation scoring from N to S,  Usually, M-B systems rematerialize along a W-E axis due to BL resistance that is N-S...

Weird..

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Powderfreak, throw a photo of Stowe in the thread

150” on season at mountain , repeat that a few times. 150” Pack at ridiculous levels 

70" depth has settled to 65" now a couple days after the storm.  Honestly that 151" is likely low for the high terrain 3000+ feet.  Smuggs next door is at like 190".

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