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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As far as I can tell Kevin is a Trump supporter but he wants to blame progged rainers on the shut down....lol.

Either way the GFS sucks. I do laugh at the people who live in gated walled communities or homes who come out with hypocritical statements.  Its complex but I say declare a state of emergency, get everyone back to work and let the courts decide. Sorry for the OT

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Yeah ginxy that matches what I had heard. The degradation was mostly coincidental timing. I had heard there was a change in the way data was assimilated but that wouldn't be related to any shutdown. Either way the recent rebound in score sort of puts the argument to rest. If there were serious data problems it would just keep degrading. 

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18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ...  The whole run appears sped up with wind velocities and bit more gradient saturated then the last two cycles.  ... I mean, unfortunately, that's part of the possibilities over next weekend. I mentioned it earlier, so it's good to get an example of this out of the way early - and hope it really does stay 'out of the way' ... but I'm leery of this PV up N acting too weighty and squeezing the flow ...

One thing I do want to point out is that the 582 dm isotach is S of Florida and the wind velocities are ~ 30 kts.  Although there is a fast flow in some GFS runs overall... should the western ridge pop better there could be deeper dive back east with less absorption/adding back to storm potential.  Any such system would be moving right along..

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19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Sorry meant 21z RAP run.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ... 

For the sanity of the board, the 18z GFS would push many over the edge.  Sharp snowfall gradient at the Mass border...

The law of averages says something has to happen in SNE.  It's a wintry climate, I mean one of these has to deliver down south.

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Don't do this to yourself. 

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Start a separate delusional cj thread.

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Why is it fair for people to be pissed off when I have a chance at snowfall, but people don't want to hear me complain when I get rain and everyone else receives snow?  It has to go both ways people.  Enough with the crying about me getting snow.  Deal with it, I have to deal with the Canal seeing snow and I am on the outer Cape receiving rainstorm after rainstorm.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why is it fair for people to be pissed off when I have a chance at snowfall, but people don't want to hear me complain when I get rain and everyone else receives snow?  It has to go both ways people.  Enough with the crying about me getting snow.  Deal with it, I have to deal with the Canal seeing snow and I am on the outer Cape receiving rainstorm after rainstorm.

It's mostly because you aren't seeing any snow from this storm. Maybe some OES flurries. 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why is it fair for people to be pissed off when I have a chance at snowfall, but people don't want to hear me complain when I get rain and everyone else receives snow?  It has to go both ways people.  Enough with the crying about me getting snow.  Deal with it, I have to deal with the Canal seeing snow and I am on the outer Cape receiving rainstorm after rainstorm.

You aren't getting significant snow...turn that sideways, sit on it, spin a 360, and deal with it in your own, hapless and dissociative way.

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