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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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20 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I came across a neat product on weathermodels.com. 

KIGX_2019120100_t2anom_7mon.png

Abv avg December in the books more than likely.

I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ?  ;)

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11 minutes ago, Wow said:

Abv avg December in the books more than likely.

I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ?  ;)

While it's not the below we would all love to see, having basically 30 year norm temps for Jan-March is probably the best we could hope for. Would be interesting to revisit that map after the winter and see how it verifies. It seems too smooth, too even to me. It's hard not to think we don't see some ups and downs with at least one month being significantly above. 

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19 minutes ago, Wow said:

Abv avg December in the books more than likely.

I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ?  ;)

Maybe we should give them all a beer. 

It's nice to see January and February are basically normal. We can work with that.

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Not looking great, GEFS and EPS all say we mild for the rest of the month. Which, with our climo...means snow might have to wait till the new year. 

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1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

Not looking great, GEFS and EPS all say we mild for the rest of the month. Which, with our climo...means snow might have to wait till the new year. 

Which isnt really unusual at all if you're below 2000 feet. 

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At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range. 

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Euro and GFS don't look that far apart to me.  They're both really far south with a bombing upper level low.  If we can keep that feature but trend it more to the north and deeper it could get interesting. IMO, the likelihood of it occluding that far south is doubtful.  More likely it either follows an evolution like the CMC, or closes off further north bringing NC/VA in to the game for heavy snow.

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Kind of early to be saying anybody is out , I mean 6-7 days is a long time

Everything south of 85 is out from October till march as far as I'm concerned :lol:

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

At this point, I'd almost totally ignore the GFS unless it agreed with the Euro/Ukmet/ICON. It has just been bad with these fantasy storms in the mid range. 

It's almost laughable with how horrible it is in the midrange.  Why people hug it every time it shows a fantasy storm is beyond me. The GFS should have its own thread on this forum.  I never expected a flake from this storm and I still don't. We're going to have to wait till next month when climatology is on our side. 

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It's cool to keep your expectations down but I wouldn't write this one off along and north of 85 NC/SC. It's going to bomb out along the coast more than likely question is where? I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger precip field blossom further NW just need enough caa. A lot of typical thread the needle perfect timing ECT I know but ive seen worse produce and not just for my neck of the woods (mtns/foothills) I'm just glad to have something to track before Christmas even if it doesn't pan out. 

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First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months.  It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter.  Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap.  However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error.   If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!!  For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread.  Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob  from time to time, but nothing more.  Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away.  

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5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

First, let me apologize to every person living in the southeast who has wanted to see snow over the last 12 months.  It seemed at this time last year there was so much promise of a good snowy winter.  Then I started the 2019 thread and it all turned into a bag of monkey crap.  However, we now have the opportunity to correct this egregious error.   If anyone has any hope of seeing any wintry weather, for the love of Pete, please start a new long term thread!!!  For my part, I promise to NEVER start another thread.  Oh, I will lurk and post the occasional movie reference or weather ob  from time to time, but nothing more.  Remember, old posters never die, we just simply fade away.  

It’s ok, this winter is going to be memorable! Post on , my friend, post on!

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9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s ok, this winter is going to be memorable! Post on , my friend, post on!

LOL    This from the king of negativity on the Board!

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LMA0 upstate tiger. Usually whatever I say the opposite happens so here it goes. Winter is over . Get ready to over seed your lawn early . That should help 

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Pesky ole Great Lakes low just wreaking havoc with temps. We lose everything at the surface even with a better track than 12z. Driving rain storm for everyone. We would need a more negative tilt with the vort in MS/AL for this thing to take off earlier and to get the damm Great Lakes low out of the way. I feel like every damn year that thing rears its ugly head. 

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GFS still suffering from major convective feedback. Has two areas of precip maxima at 156 and 162. One over the outer banks and one way off shore and the LP symbol showing up as 997 over the 2and area offshore. Kind of another wonky run this go around. Temps are the big issue now if the HP doesn't hang in there. I'm invested in this so there's no turning back even if the wheels are falling off. I feel like if this doesn't produce in any manner it could be awhile for the people who enjoy snow. The LR looks pretty abysmal. 

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12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

GFS still suffering from major convective feedback. Has two areas of precip maxima at 156 and 162. One over the outer banks and one way off shore and the LP symbol showing up as 997 over the 2and area offshore. Kind of another wonky run this go around. Temps are the big issue now if the HP doesn't hang in there. I'm invested in this so there's no turning back even if the wheels are falling off. I feel like if this doesn't produce in any manner it could be awhile for the people who enjoy snow. The LR looks pretty abysmal. 

Looks like 12z cmc. Holds energy back over MN,WI,MI. Not allowing it to come south.

Not gonna  cut it if you want and UL snowfall.

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Kenosha Kickers are headed down to Cobb for Christmas this year. I'll ask them to bring some cold and all the proper ingredients...

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0z GFS looks somewhat interesting early stages at 96 hrs with NS energy sharper. Will see where it goes from here. Canadian wasn't too far off at 12z. 

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0z GFS looks somewhat interesting early stages at 96 hrs with NS energy sharper. Will see where it goes from here. Canadian wasn't too far off at 12z. 
Great Lakes Low on the 20th...

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Great Lakes Low on the 20th...

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Going the wrong way. GL low refuses to drop in behind vort in the south. What could of been I guess.

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