Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Still a wide spread with the GEFS. Looks like for me 8 have no precip at all, 6 have rain, and 6 have something frozen.

1551201663515.png.eafaed165a754c84b3efe909203465ce.png

Doesnt look as good as it did 36 hours ago but still lots of time for things to shift and change 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Funny how things can change in 24 hours. Yesterday, things looked great because the GFS showed a big hit for NC, and then the Euro came on board. yesterday was the first time they both showed a good storm for NC. Then things started going the other way with the runs last night. I guess there is time for it to come back around, but now it looks the models are showing less and less of a hit with the runs since last night. 

Brick you said it yourself. The models get lost,sometimes for a couples of days then come back even better. Just keep that in mind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is why I almost wish we didn't have access to the models this far out...  They always do this.  
I really surprised WRAL even mentioned the possibility on their forecast last night.  Maze said he only mentioned it because people were seeing snowflakes on their phone app, but he cautioned that models switch around frequently this far out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't look at the Euro if you want to see snow. Seeing a bad trend here. Hopefully just the usual bouncing around still and not settled in. We need the first wave flat and supressed. Right now its looking more amplified and that kills the 2nd as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro has rain here with the first wave, and out to sea with the second wave. Crazy how different things are just 24 hours later. It's really maddening. 

I don't know why you're surprised. This whole winter has been trash outside the first 2 weeks of Dec. Why would that change now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I don't know why you're surprised. This whole winter has been trash outside the first 2 weeks of Dec. Why would that change now?

Has the winter been trash? Or has the models been trash?  Nothing but broken dreams. With all of today's technology it's ridiculous how models perform outside of 3 days 99% of the time. You could take a 7 year old kid and he would have just as good of a chance of predicting the weather outside of 5 days...Trash models and trash winter. I live in the middle of the Smoky Mountains at 3000' and have had 2.8 inches of snow so far..Pure trash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is why I almost wish we didn't have access to the models this far out...  They always do this.  
I really surprised WRAL even mentioned the possibility on their forecast last night.  Maze said he only mentioned it because people were seeing snowflakes on their phone app, but he cautioned that models switch around frequently this far out. 

Wait.  You're in favor of censoring which information the public has access to?  I'm going to file a Freedom of Information Act request to counter your proposal.  =)

It should be up to the individual to determine what information they want to give credence to and how they want to process it.  I don't need/want someone else filtering my weather map access because they believe I wouldn't be able to handle whatever mood swings they think I might incur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Wait.  You're in favor of censoring which information the public has access to?  I'm going to file a Freedom of Information Act request to counter your proposal.  =)

It should be up to the individual to determine what information they want to give credence to and how they want to process it.  I don't need/want someone else filtering my weather map access because they believe I wouldn't be able to handle whatever mood swings they think I might incur.

haha, I just meant from a personal standpoint.  I just don't have the willpower to stay away.   :lol:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick.  We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.:facepalm:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Has the winter been trash? Or has the models been trash?  Nothing but broken dreams. With all of today's technology it's ridiculous how models perform outside of 3 days 99% of the time. You could take a 7 year old kid and he would have just as good of a chance of predicting the weather outside of 5 days...Trash models and trash winter. I live in the middle of the Smoky Mountains at 3000' and have had 2.8 inches of snow so far..Pure trash

You need to move higher up! 5000’ or bust!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Has the winter been trash? Or has the models been trash?  Nothing but broken dreams. With all of today's technology it's ridiculous how models perform outside of 3 days 99% of the time. You could take a 7 year old kid and he would have just as good of a chance of predicting the weather outside of 5 days...Trash models and trash winter. I live in the middle of the Smoky Mountains at 3000' and have had 2.8 inches of snow so far..Pure trash

I may get bashed for saying this, but the models have been decent inside of 7 days. Not one decent storm threat has made it inside 7 days since Dec. After 7 days they have teased a good pattern with cold and snow but quickly fades at the 7 day mark to snowless and milder. This storm is no different. We haven't had the rug snatched out a 48 hrs yet. The winter has sucked absolutely! But I wonder if the boredom and lack of tracking is because the models have actually improved?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I may get bashed for saying this, but the models have been decent inside of 7 days. Not one decent storm threat has made it inside 7 days since Dec. After 7 days they have teased a good pattern with cold and snow but quickly fades at the 7 day mark to snowless and milder. This storm is no different. We haven't had the rug snatched out a 48 hrs yet. The winter has sucked absolutely! But I wonder if the boredom and lack of tracking is because the models have actually improved?

This one is a little different. Before it was usually the FV3 showing a storm past 7 days. This time both the Euro and GFS both were showing a storm and a big hit for NC yesterday. Those two haven't been on the same page since the December storm. But I guess it really doesn't matter, because unless it's inside 5 days now it's just fantasy. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s a sad winter when the highlight was watching sleet pellets mix with the rain for 3-4 hours with tens at 36 degrees! :(

I saw 10 minutes of snow in the December storm.  Unfortunate that we couldn't buy any cold this year.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I may get bashed for saying this, but the models have been decent inside of 7 days. Not one decent storm threat has made it inside 7 days since Dec. After 7 days they have teased a good pattern with cold and snow but quickly fades at the 7 day mark to snowless and milder. This storm is no different. We haven't had the rug snatched out a 48 hrs yet. The winter has sucked absolutely! But I wonder if the boredom and lack of tracking is because the models have actually improved?

I agree here.  It's generally been the weeklies that have been trash, but even they began to re-align some by the late January outputs.  Models in the 7-14 day have not been good.  Inside 7? not bad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RAH this afternoon:

 Our weather gets more interesting as the polar low 
drifts across S Ontario/S Quebec, with reloading energy plunging 
down into the Great Lakes region early next week. The surface cold 
front passage late Sat night into early Sun morning will bring in 
much colder air and set the stage for potential heavy and perhaps 
non-liquid precip as it hangs up just to our SE with low pressure 
tracking along it. Highest pops are most likely to occur late Sun 
through Mon morning, with passage of the surface low just to our S 
and SE, beneath a potent upper divergence maximum. It's too early to 
determine the precise frontal position and low track and how much 
cold air will get into the area, but models appear to be trending 
wetter and further N, suggesting that any potential for wintry 
precip will likely be confined to the NW Piedmont. That said, 
however, we could still see some light wraparound snow on the 
backside of the departing low late Mon, perhaps lingering into Mon 
night or Tue. Will have a chance of rain or snow in the far NW Sun 
night into Mon for now. Expect temps to be below normal Sun and much 
below normal (highs in the 40s) Mon and Tue. -GIH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend all year was for storms to cut and I know it's not scientific but some years we see snow every couple weeks or like this year it seems to rain every Saturday. Repetitive patterns dont seem to break easily. Another example is the year DC had 3 to 4 huge storms. That year the pattern was repetitive relative to storm track. This year is the same just with a much further northwest track.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not good trends today for sure but still far from being settled.  Below is long term AFD from GSP:

At the surface, a low pressure system develops to our west on Sunday
in response to the digging trough. Moisture and precip spread back
into the area as the low moves east. However, the ECMWF is stronger,
wetter, and farther north with the surface low. Therefore, it shows
little in the way of wintry precip until the low pulls away on
Monday with some brief NW flow type snow for the mountains. The
thermal profiles suggest more of a mixed p-type scenario if enough
low level cold air could move in Sunday night.

The GFS still has widespread precip but is also colder with the low
track closer to the Gulf Coast. That said, the cold air doesn`t move
in until the back side of the low keeping any wintry precip confined
mainly to the mountains, with some spillage out across the I-40
corridor Sunday night and again Monday night as the low is
departing. The GFS indicates a potential mixed p-type problem
initially turning to a rain or snow scenario as the colder air moves
in. The GFS ensemble mean shows a rain or snow scenario with up to
an inch of snow outside of the mountains with up to 4 inches across
the mountains, but there is a wide spread in individual members
across the area.

Given the above problems, have limited any p-type concerns to rain
or snow, but this is subject to change as the event approaches.
Also, limited PoP to the chance range for any one period.

The models also show a lingering inverted surface trough across the
area for Tuesday. The ECMWF is dry while the GFS has light precip
over the area in response. I have kept the forecast dry for now
given the uncertainty.

Model blend temps have come in warmer through the period, but
blended with the previous forecast to avoid some big changes in the
forecast. The warmer temps would limit the amount of wintry precip
outside of the mountains as well. However, there are good
indications of a cooling trend through the period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of models trending badly today but I would not get to worried just yet, hell the 18Z GFS just ran it suppressed with hardly any precip over NC this time around.....this is probably going to be one of those cases where we have to wait till all the players are being well sampled for the models to lock it in. The trend today was not encouraging but with 6-7 days to go a lot can change. 

I wouldnt throw in the towel just yet heck I wouldnt even pick it up.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.thumb.png.c12d2a08607a8a9befb1bed3c5095630.png

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both the 18Z GFS and FV3 show light snow for central NC on Monday.  But the Tuesday/Wednesday system is non-existent...  poof.  
What do other models show?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×