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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Well we had a very brief shower here in Chapin SC.  I been seeing dust devils lately with it being so darn dry so even a little is appreciated.  Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

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Got a good hard rain this evening for about 25 minutes. Picked up about half an inch, maybe more.  Just felt good. Went outside, listened and took in that rain smell. Been WAY too long. 

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3 hours ago, scwxfan said:

Another day. Another bust. Starting to think this dry spell never ends in my area. :fulltilt:

I've really enjoyed the dry weather the past three weeks or so; a MUCH needed break for my area. Now I guess it's back to endless rain? We need a happy medium!

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25 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I've really enjoyed the dry weather the past three weeks or so; a MUCH needed break for my area. Now I guess it's back to endless rain? We need a happy medium! 

Seriously????? Why don't you move down here then. You can have all the drought your heart desires. I have no idea why some people love heat and drought so much....

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20 minutes ago, scwxfan said:

Seriously????? Why don't you move down here then. You can have all the drought your heart desires. I have no idea why some people love heat and drought so much....

Lol, I love neither and I hate the heat! But the fact is I had around 100 inches of rain over the past 18 months so having three weeks of dry weather has been a very welcome break for me. Now I hated the hot weather, but it was almost worth it to have some time without constant rain. It's funny, I feel like some people want several inches of rain every day or their not happy...

BTW, what is your location? I understand the lower part of the state has been much drier this year than my area.

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14 hours ago, jpbart said:

Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

No you won't. LOL! I can guarantee you it will be a washout.

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15 hours ago, jpbart said:

Well we had a very brief shower here in Chapin SC.  I been seeing dust devils lately with it being so darn dry so even a little is appreciated.  Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

If we get all the rain they are calling for you won’t be fishing on the Davidson river. Lol

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1 hour ago, Rainforrest said:

If we get all the rain they are calling for you won’t be fishing on the Davidson river. Lol

giphy.gif

 

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11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Lol, I love neither and I hate the heat! But the fact is I had around 100 inches of rain over the past 18 months so having three weeks of dry weather has been a very welcome break for me. Now I hated the hot weather, but it was almost worth it to have some time without constant rain. It's funny, I feel like some people want several inches of rain every day or their not happy...

BTW, what is your location? I understand the lower part of the state has been much drier this year than my area.

Fair enough. The problem is while the mountains were getting lots of rain, many areas east and south of the mountains weren't getting much. Many areas already had significant deficits by the time the heat wave/drought arrived. The more droughts, the stronger and longer lasting the heatwaves are. We just spent over a week with a burn ban. Im not one of those that want deluges every day of the year, but I know how bad droughts can get here too.  You guys in the mountains are so fortunate.  Btw, I'm currently in Blythewood SC, about 20 miles north of KCAE.

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1 hour ago, Rainforrest said:

If we get all the rain they are calling for you won’t be fishing on the Davidson river. Lol

He won't be doing anything on the Davidson. :lol:

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40 minutes ago, scwxfan said:

Fair enough. The problem is while the mountains were getting lots of rain, many areas east and south of the mountains weren't getting much. Many areas already had significant deficits by the time the heat wave/drought arrived. The more droughts, the stronger and longer lasting the heatwaves are. We just spent over a week with a burn ban. Im not one of those that want deluges every day of the year, but I know how bad droughts can get here too.  You guys in the mountains are so fortunate.  Btw, I'm currently in Blythewood SC, about 20 miles north of KCAE.

It is indeed amazing how different the weather can be in different parts of the state. I guess you guys have been in a rain drought AND a snow drought! :yikes: Well we suck at snow too, but have at least seen a little.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

It is indeed amazing how different the weather can be in different parts of the state. I guess you guys have been in a rain drought AND a snow drought! :yikes: Well we suck at snow too, but have at least seen a little.

Bingo....  This is absolutely the worst area for a weather enthusiast. I wouldn't wish this place on my worst enemy. I'm surprised you do so bad with snow considering your location. Most areas north of 85 do pretty good with snow. Looks to be another rain free day today, and our string of dry days continue. I'm quite frankly skeptical about these models showing 5-7 inches of rain in my area. 

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26 minutes ago, scwxfan said:

Bingo....  This is absolutely the worst area for a weather enthusiast. I wouldn't wish this place on my worst enemy. I'm surprised you do so bad with snow considering your location. Most areas north of 85 do pretty good with snow. Looks to be another rain free day today, and our string of dry days continue. I'm quite frankly skeptical about these models showing 5-7 inches of rain in my area. 

Yeah we'll see about the rain. I'm in the 7-10 inch band on one run I saw; hope I dont get that much:blink:.

With snow, I'm kinda in that western upstate snow hole, oconee and pickens counties that get skipped a lot due to down slope drying and coastal transfers; BUT,  I'm just far enough east to usually get something. Last year I got three inches (of mostly sleet) from the December storm, and that was it for the whole season. Got two snows the year before but only 2-3 inches each. 

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48 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah we'll see about the rain. I'm in the 7-10 inch band on one run I saw; hope I dont get that much:blink:.

With snow, I'm kinda in that western upstate snow hole, oconee and pickens counties that get skipped a lot due to down slope drying and coastal transfers; BUT,  I'm just far enough east to usually get something. Last year I got three inches (of mostly sleet) from the December storm, and that was it for the whole season. Got two snows the year before but only 2-3 inches each. 

Got ya. You are in that "Savannah/ Chattooga river screwzone. I've noticed in some situations that a nose of warm air will travel up the Savannah river all the way to the escarpment. Your best snow bet in SC is from Greenville county and Northeast along and north of I-85. Downsloping is our worst enemy in SC and east GA.

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Well I am going to get fly fishing lessons Sunday at Davidson River Outfitters.  Yeah it’s gonna be rough for fishing but what the hell. I have two teenaged boys who are going to learn the basics with me.  Hey a bad day fishing is better than a good day at work. 

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9 hours ago, griteater said:

No sign of any big heat ridges on the ensembles over the next 15 days

If there was such a thing as a humidity ridge the ensembles would be showing that for sure cuz I'm kinda feelin' like we're sitting right under a luke warm water faucet right now.  We just can't win here with weather anymore.  I don't need 3 months of humid and wet.  I had that last year.

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Robert posted on FB earlier. He is really thinking this could be a big event, especially in and around the Apps. He's saying from n. Florida to southern VA are under the gun.

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7 hours ago, scwxfan said:

Bingo....  This is absolutely the worst area for a weather enthusiast. I wouldn't wish this place on my worst enemy. I'm surprised you do so bad with snow considering your location. Most areas north of 85 do pretty good with snow. Looks to be another rain free day today, and our string of dry days continue. I'm quite frankly skeptical about these models showing 5-7 inches of rain in my area. 

I lived in Lexington for a bit and still suffer PTSD from the weather, or should I say lack of interesting weather down there. Lol you're right, that is not the place for a weather enthusiast. 

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The trajectory of the training cells here traveling south to north and NNW, and banking up against the Blue Ridge looks rather ominous for heavy rains and localized to regional flash flooding.  Precipitable water / moisture content is high.  Focus of the heavy rain threat looks to extend thru Sunday night.

From latest Excessive Rainfall Discussion from WPC:

PWs and instability will be on the increase again during the day and expect multiple rounds/clusters of storms through the period as additional shortwave impulses rotate around the mid/upper level trough to the west. A nearly stationary west to east boundary should help focus activity and support periodic backbuilding/training. The location of the main boundary appears to be a bit further south by later today...likely in the vicinity of central and western NC/SC. By later this afternoon into tonight we also will see an increase in 850mb southeasterly flow, which should add an orographic component to the rainfall along/east of the southern Appalachians across northeast GA into western NC/SC. The combination of the frontal boundary and increased upslope flow with time, suggests the likelihood of pockets of heavy rainfall into tonight. Would expect flash flooding to become increasingly common with time as soils saturate...and the setup does suggests the potential for at least localized significant flash flooding. The highest threat this morning is across western NC into southwestVA...and shifts southward a bit later today into tonight, with the greatest focus expected to be from far northeast GA into western SC/NC. This event does have the potential to produce high end flash flooding, especially by later today into tonight from northeast GA into the western Carolinas...and so will need to closely monitor trends across this region.

sNDfyVf.gif

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35 minutes ago, griteater said:

The trajectory of the training cells here traveling south to north and NNW, and banking up against the Blue Ridge looks rather ominous for heavy rains and localized to regional flash flooding.  Precipitable water / moisture content is high.  Focus of the heavy rain threat looks to extend thru Sunday night.

From latest Excessive Rainfall Discussion from WPC:

PWs and instability will be on the increase again during the day and expect multiple rounds/clusters of storms through the period as additional shortwave impulses rotate around the mid/upper level trough to the west. A nearly stationary west to east boundary should help focus activity and support periodic backbuilding/training. The location of the main boundary appears to be a bit further south by later today...likely in the vicinity of central and western NC/SC. By later this afternoon into tonight we also will see an increase in 850mb southeasterly flow, which should add an orographic component to the rainfall along/east of the southern Appalachians across northeast GA into western NC/SC. The combination of the frontal boundary and increased upslope flow with time, suggests the likelihood of pockets of heavy rainfall into tonight. Would expect flash flooding to become increasingly common with time as soils saturate...and the setup does suggests the potential for at least localized significant flash flooding. The highest threat this morning is across western NC into southwestVA...and shifts southward a bit later today into tonight, with the greatest focus expected to be from far northeast GA into western SC/NC. This event does have the potential to produce high end flash flooding, especially by later today into tonight from northeast GA into the western Carolinas...and so will need to closely monitor trends across this region.

sNDfyVf.gif

 

Just had a heavy downpour with only 30 to  35dbz....so these  showers/storms are efficient rain producers. Nam and rap showing pws maybe as high as 2.15 over the next 48 hours.    Considering what the radar looks like now with quite a bit of training already, one can easily see how  flash flooding could quickly become a problem over north ga into western nc. Already 1 to  4 inches of rain with a lot of back building to the south/southwest in the atlanta/gainesvlle/athens region.  

 Finally got a good storm/rain yesterday...around 2 inches in 30 minutes. The rain rates were very high so there was a lot of runoff which was something to see after being so bone dry for so long...but  what was even more amazing about it was seeing how fast the ground soaked it up. Not sure i've ever seen so much water disappear so fast.  So that will help for a little while.

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