December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Bristow, what do you think. Can we eke out 3 inches in western PW county with an over performer? I'd like to break in my new toy.

Oh no not the snow blower again.  Put that thing away it's bad luck lol! 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care?

Weird people

Anyway take care everyone

You have nothing to add, ever. And yes I bet the folks in the NE sub forum cherish your insightful posts.

[RDM]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care?

Weird people

Anyway take care everyone

Good grief - what a profound statement to make.  Please spare us the nonsense and go away.  Take the hint, please.  Plenty for you to do in your own sub.  Much appreciated...  

[CAPE]

Y'all weird.

Take care tho!

[jewell2188]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care?

Weird people

Anyway take care everyone

We are the normal ones down here....it’s yall northern folks that don’t act right 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

WOW.. I would be willing to punt the remainder of Dec for that scenario. 

all 6 days of it?  

[Jandurin]

Maybe he means he would retroactively take back all his December grumpiness if such a solution verified

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why do Mid Atlantic people hate others coming into your subforum but other subforums don't care?

Weird people

Anyway take care everyone

We love when knowledgeable posters visit and make valuable contributions.  No one in here ever chases HM or coastalwx or various others from our forum when they drop by.  But you pop in from time to time to tell us things we already know, parrot what several others are already saying, or worse...at times in the past have popped in here during a fail to let us know its going to fail.  You typically add nothing of value.  That is why YOU get a hostile response.  I pop into other forums from time to time, and in the past have been a regular in the PA forum since I am about 1 mile from their border...but when deciding whether to post in a region I am a guest in, unless I feel like I am adding something of value and contributing to the discussion in a positive way I keep my mouth shut.  If the regulars in that forum have it covered there is no need for me to interject.  It's a bit insulting when you pop in from another area to say freaking obvious stuff all the time, as if you think their too stupid to see it themselves. 

As for your euro post... yea we saw it, but perhaps we do not get all excited over a discreet wave in a fast northern stream dominant flow at 150 hours out because one model has it take the absolute perfect track on one run of the op.  If at 72 hours it looks like that across most guidance then yea we will be talking about it a lot.  For now its a pipe dream not worth a ton of analysis.  

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

all 6 days of it?  

Yes I am a generous chap.  this place would go crazy for flakes to make Santa's arrival more festive.  I know it's a pipe dream but that's what Xmas is all about.

[WxUSAF]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

  If at 72 hours it looks like that across most guidance then yea we will be talking about it a lot.  For now its a pipe dream not worth a ton of analysis.  

(Quickly deletes new thread)

[Ji]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

all 6 days of it?  

were punting it anyway. its not a sacrifice at all lol

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

(Quickly deletes new thread)

the FV3 was quicker with the SW(it looks like it was Dec 24) but then it just sputtered right on our doorstep lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

The @Maestrobjwa Xmas miracle event. 

Hey--I can't put my name on this one! this would be the Tony Pann snow all the way, lol If it trends our way, he'd have the coup of the year so far! XD

[frd]

I guess at this point the focus is more on outcomes and impact area versus whether the event is happening. 

Seems certain it will happen now, so the question becomes where is the troposheric reponse going to manifest itself in terms of cold.

Seems that last Feb the warming was in a certain area, not the same as this year possibly. Along with other countless variables last year during the event. 

But below this might be useful to look at from Jason and Ventrice.

On a side note from @bluewave is how we are getting this current unfavorable phase of the MJO out of the way now, versus during peak snowfall climate. So, hopefully the outcomes of the strat event, general retrogression to a -EPO +PNA -NAO , MJO phase 8 1 and 2 all coincide at the optimal time and maybe we lock in depending of the strat evolution. ( The strat part at this time is simple speculation though ) 

So looks good 

 

from Todd ( he mentions the core of the cold was more so Europe ) yet we know what went down here in March of last year. 

 

From Jason  ( note the look from last Feb,  to me it looks different from the current warming focus area now, and moving forward )  

 

 

  

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

were punting it anyway. its not a sacrifice at all lol

There are several waves running the boundary that week.  The boundary is probably to our north most of the time but its possible something starts or ends as a little frozen.  Its unlikely but its not impossible we get something around New Years.  

[mattie g]

49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes I am a generous chap.  this place would go crazy for flakes to make Santa's arrival more festive.  I know it's a pipe dream but that's what Xmas is all about.

He’d aready be at home after yet another successful Christmas, having downed a few scotches and shacking up with Mrs. Claus for a long winter’s night (if you know what I mean).

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

I guess at this point the focus is more on outcomes and impact area versus whether the event is happening. 

Seems certain it will happen now, so the question becomes where is the troposheric reponse going to manifeest itself in terms of cold.

Seems that last Feb the warming was in a certain area, not the same as this year possibly. Along with other countless variables last year during the event. 

But below this miight be useful to look at from Jason and Ventrice.

On a side note from @bluewave is how we are getting this current unfavorable phase of the MJO out of the way now, versus during peak snowfall climate. So, hopefully the outcomes of the strat event, general retrogression to a -EPO +PNA -NAO , MJO phase 8 1 and 2 all coincide at the optimal time and maybe we lock in depending of the sttat evolution. ( The strat part at this time is simple speculation though ) 

So looks good 

 

from Todd ( he mentions the core of the cold was more so Europe ) yet we know what went down here in March of last year. 

 

From Jason  ( note the look from last Feb,  to me it looks different from the current waring focus area now, and moving forward )  

 

 

  

 

I am by no means in their league with this stuff but a couple thoughts... We don't necessarily want the core of the cold to be here.  1977 is a good example.  Ridiculously cold, not much snow.   If we get blocking up top it should be helpful in some way regardless of whether we get an arctic blast directed right at us or not.  Most of our snowy periods that were blocking related weren't overly cold.  Makes sense since significant storms ride the boundary and the best snow is typically only 25-100 miles north of the rain/snow line.  If the cold is blasting all the way to Florida that's not exactly good if you want snow.  

Second thought...totally agree about the timing.  I know people are grinding their teeth over the fact that this warm period is happening right around the holidays...and because we missed the big storm threat they are also getting antsy for results, but the timing of how everything is lining up couldn't possibly be better.  I have often thought that much of our winter fate is determined by the luck of getting certain phases of these cyclical patterns to line up right during our peak climo.   Yes, certain overriding long term patterns like enso and the pdo can skew things more or less favorable overall.  But we have had some great Nina's (1996) and we have had some aweful modoki Nino's (1995) so obviously there is some chaos also.  

Last year was an east based Nina, which is the better of the Nina's for our purposes and gives us at least a chance.  West based nina's are almost a close the door and wait till next year thing.  And we had a chance...we just missed several threats...but we also got unlucky that the worst mjo phases happened during our peak climo.  We had some favorable looks in December and early January but we spent January 10th to the end of February suffering through a long strong mjo wave progressing the awful warm phases.  Then as soon as that came off and we got some strat help we had an epic pattern in March and April and we did get one minor and one moderate event out of it..but what if that had happened mid winter?  We could easily have had another 1996 last year if what went down March 1 to April 15th had been January 1 to February 15th instead.  

This year the way the timing of all this is shaking out...that looks to be the case.  We are likely to get our best phases of all the key indicators to line up right during our prime climo the second half of January and early February.  I will take that and roll the dice.  It's been a while since we got everything to line up in our favor.  This year the timing looks to be right.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I doubt this Stratosphere warming will have the same result as past Stratosphere warmings -- it's too known. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I doubt this Stratosphere warming will have the same result as past Stratosphere warmings -- it's too known. 

because things that are unknown are way more predictable 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I doubt this Stratosphere warming will have the same result as past Stratosphere warmings -- it's too known. 

Will it result in a -NAO? You have been insistent with the idea that it would take a SWE to get a NA block.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Then as soon as that came off and we got some strat help we had an epic pattern in March and April and we did get one minor and one moderate event out of it..but what if that had happened mid winter?  We could easily have had another 1996 last year if what went down March 1 to April 15th had been January 1 to February 15th instead.

Agreed, and this is why I think the pattern at its full potential is capable of KU events. 

I also like seeing the reversal in pressure patterns forecased by the ECM in the SW Pacific, so feeling good the MJO will advance.

Already seeing lessening convection to a degree in the Indian Ocean as well. All systems go. 

Lastly you are right , cold is great but we need that STJ and snow, cold and dry is boooorrrrring . 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Will it result in a -NAO? You have been insistent with the idea that it would take a SWE to get a NA block.

Probably, About the time you would expect it in El Nino late January - early February, but something will probably be just as unfavorable then. 

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

Agreed, and this is why I think the pattern at its full potential is capable of KU events. 

I also like seeing the reversal in pressure patterns forecased by the ECM in the SW Pacific, so feeling good the MJO will advance.

Already seeing lessening convection to a degree in the Indian Ocean as well. All systems go. 

Lastly you are right , cold is great but we need that STJ and snow, cold and dry is boooorrrrring . 

I'll take a week of brutally cold and dry following 10" storm. That wouldn't be boring. No melting, just sublimation. Of course, that almost never happens here lol.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Agreed, and this is why I think the pattern at its full potential is capable of KU events. 

I also like seeing the reversal in pressure patterns forecased by the ECM in the SW Pacific, so feeling good the MJO will advance.

Already seeing lessening convection to a degree in the Indian Ocean as well. All systems go. 

Lastly you are right , cold is great but we need that STJ and snow, cold and dry is boooorrrrring . 

Something else to consider...but we don't have enough data yet to say there is a correlation... but in recent years when we get blocking our chances of getting a storm seem even higher then in the past.  Historically blocking is always good but we used to waste blocking patterns a lot more then we do now.  I don't mean like 3 day transient ridges but the last decade when we get a solid period of NAO blocking we almost always score a good snowstorm from it.  If precipitation events are becoming more common from global warming and the subsequent intensification of the potential energy along the baroclinic boundaries then that stands to be a logical outcome.  But again, we can't say that for sure yet.  But we haven't totally wasted many blocking periods lately.  

[frd]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something else to consider...but we don't have enough data yet to say there is a correlation... but in recent years when we get blocking our chances of getting a storm seem even higher then in the past.

Very true, seems the atmosphere wants to deliver the goods. Very active pattern so far with tons of precip and storms.  

Maybe the consistent signal for deepening storms offshore at our lattitude continues, and possibly even the stall scenario ( ? 1978 ) or loop de loop as in some years. ( I still rememebr the Pamela Anderson < March 2001 >  bust scenario where the storm was going to loop and even stall but alas that never played out well for us ) . 

I expect we see some strange storm modeling outcomes as well the next 60 days if we get significant Davis Straights blocking.    

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This year the way the timing of all this is shaking out...that looks to be the case.  We are likely to get our best phases of all the key indicators to line up right during our prime climo the second half of January and early February.  I will take that and roll the dice.  It's been a while since we got everything to line up in our favor.  This year the timing looks to be right.  

Hey, that's all we can ask for, right? I mean, if we still manage to miss IF that happens...then we are just snake-bitten, lol

Now...while I don't understand a ton about the SSW event...would it be accurate to say that, at this juncture...how it will affect things is also a roll of the dice? (that seems to be what I'm hearing from you guys, HM, etc...)

[mappy]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

because things that are unknown are way more predictable 

it is known

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Very true, seems the atmosphere wants to deliver the goods. Very active pattern so far with tons of precip and storms.

Maybe it's not a good idea for me to harp on this, but...those years where...it rained a lot, but then didn't snow a lot in the winters that followed...wouldn't that throw a cautionary monkey wrench in that logic? The years in the top 5 for rainfall (other than this year) all preceded below average winters (1888, 1979, 1996, and 2003--none of those wet years was followed up by a good winter. Guess the moisture those winters suddenly trended the wrong way, smh)

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I doubt this Stratosphere warming will have the same result as past Stratosphere warmings -- it's too known. 

Shut up Chuck

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Dont have surface plots but Ukie has a couple weak waves of low pressure come through.  Mon and then Wed it appears  ...could be some light frozen.

Gfs, GGEM, and FV3 all have decent vort passes. FV3 has a swath of rain to our south. I think there’s room for more surface reflection just based on how things look aloft.