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stormtracker

December 9/10 Storm

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33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Don’t think I’m going back to Charlottesville. Not confident they verify the WSW. Me not heading back down means they will though. Oh well.

All virga so far.

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All virga so far.


I’d guess when the greens move over you you’ll flip. Precip does already seem to be running up against a bit of a wall though, but it’ll surely make it up past Charlottesville.

Counting on you for measuring! I don’t trust my roommate as far as I could throw him, which isn’t far given he’s 6’3”.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


I’d guess when the greens move over you you’ll flip. Precip does already seem to be running up against a bit of a wall though, but it’ll surely make it up past Charlottesville.

Counting on you for measuring! I don’t trust my roommate as far as I could throw him, which isn’t far given he’s 6’3”.

 

I'm sure it will get here but the air was QUITE dry yesterday. Pretty pleasant actually. This morning on the way to the gym it definitely "felt" like snow was coming. Still does. Plenty cold and the cloud deck is thick. Just have to saturate the air now.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


I’d guess when the greens move over you you’ll flip. Precip does already seem to be running up against a bit of a wall though, but it’ll surely make it up past Charlottesville.

Counting on you for measuring! I don’t trust my roommate as far as I could throw him, which isn’t far given he’s 6’3”.

 

From what I am seeing on radar vs traffic cams and what happened at the house this am, just before greens arrive the snow overcomes the dry air and starts to fall.

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I am only expecting a few flakes here in eastern MD if the snow on the radar snow ever reaches here. Will probably be radar hallucinations

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10 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said:

Central Chesterfield started right out as snow at 7:30. Coming down nice. Coating on cars already. 33/28


.

I'm new to Chesterfield County.  Seems like it's a decent bit colder over here South of Midlothian.  Where are you in relation to me (I'm near 288 and Lucks Lane).  We're at 30/26.

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3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm new to Chesterfield County.  Seems like it's a decent bit colder over here South of Midlothian.  Where are you in relation to me (I'm near 288 and Lucks Lane).  We're at 30/26.

South down 288 about 5 miles to Rt 10. Right across from the courthouse. Welcome!!!

ETA: down to 31/27 now. Coming down nicely!

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2 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said:

South down 288 about 5 miles to Rt 10. Right across from the courthouse. Welcome!!!

 

Thanks!  Things already starting to turn white over here.  Hope we get a bunch!!

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Everything outside looks like winter except for one thing 

Well don’t leave us in suspense what?

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My zone forecast just says Snow.  That is a victory right there.  Congrats to all our southern weenies.  The winter is kicking off in fine fashion with nearly everyone seeing flakes so far this season. Warms my heart like a cup of cocoa.   

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Glad to see part of the forum cash in...enjoy it!

 

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My zone forecast just says Snow.  That is a victory right there.  Congrats to all our southern weenies.  The winter is kicking off in fine fashion with nearly everyone seeing flakes so far this season. Warms my heart like a cup of cocoa.   

Closing in on 4” here in Roanoke. Coming down moderately. Canadian was the first to this thing in my opinion.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

Closing in on 4” here in Roanoke. Coming down moderately. Canadian was the first to this thing in my opinion.

Get out there and enjoy it!  Life is short and snow is scarce.  Nothing like snow in December with the Xmas lights on the houses. 29/20 here.  Looks like snow. 

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38 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I am only expecting a few flakes here in eastern MD if the snow on the radar snow ever reaches here. Will probably be radar hallucinations

I would be surprised to see a single flake. Easton and especially Cambridge have a decent shot at some flurries/light snow.

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mcd1704.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of far western SC...NC...far eastern
   TN...southern/central VA...and southern WV

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 091318Z - 091815Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour,
   will develop northward from western/central NC and southern VA into
   portions of central VA through 18Z (1 PM EST). A mix of freezing
   rain/sleet ongoing across far western SC into parts of
   southern/central NC will shift northeastward this morning before
   eventually changing over to rain.

   DISCUSSION...A well-defined melting layer aloft was noted on
   dual-pol CC data from the KGSP and KRAH radars as of 13Z. A large
   area of moderate to heavy snow is ongoing across parts of
   western/central NC into southern VA per surface observations and
   radar imagery. As a southern-stream shortwave trough continues
   northeastward over the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic states,
   strong low/mid-level frontogenesis will likewise shift northward
   into more of central VA through 17-18Z. Heavy snow, with rates of
   1-2 inches per hour, will also likely develop into this region as
   the low levels saturate and deep lift occurs through the dendritic
   growth zone.

   Farther south, a narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet is occurring
   from far western SC into parts of southern/central NC. Current
   expectations are for the low levels to continue to gradually warm,
   which will result in a north-northeastward transition of snow to
   sleet/freezing rain, to eventually just rain. Before this happens,
   several hours of freezing rain, with rates up to 0.10 inch per hour,
   may occur. However, temperatures near freezing will probably tend to
   limit ice accretion at the surface, except perhaps in higher
   terrain.

   ..Gleason.. 12/09/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...
   MRX...

   LAT...LON   35288307 35808303 37008259 37498195 37828133 38078043
               38267957 38257865 38007776 37687716 37267682 36917675
               36347703 35847757 35247905 34968019 34698193 34798275
               35288307 
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My brother lives in Oak Ridge, north of Greensboro. That seems like a really good spot for this storm. Should stay all snow there until the evening, then mix with sleet. Could see a foot there.

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Mountains in SW VA, S WV, E TN, Western NC will definitely see 18”. Maybe 2 feet. That precip shield is huge. The models definitely got one thing wrong... QPF totals and expansive nature of the shield. 

 

It may be my weenie eyes... but the precip isn’t necessarily moving W to E. Looks to still be making a NE trek. Would love to see even an hour or two of flakes! It certainly feels like a storm is brewing outside. 

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26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My zone forecast just says Snow.  That is a victory right there.  Congrats to all our southern weenies.  The winter is kicking off in fine fashion with nearly everyone seeing flakes so far this season. Warms my heart like a cup of cocoa.   

I've already had to make one pass with the snow blower!

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