MJO812 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: until other models and especially the EURO show anything it is not a threat at the moment in the immediate NYC metro the 30th or 31st -1st https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20181231-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20190101-0600z.html Euro is flat because of the pna ridge in the west. Need that to sharpen to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Just not enough room for amplification between the two EPS cutters. Yeah I figured that storm wasn't very likely considering it's supposed to come 2 days after a cutter. Maybe if it were delayed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro is flat because of the pna ridge in the west. Need that to sharpen to have a chance. The PNA ridge is why it is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Remainder of Dec. averaging 42degs., or 7degs. AN. All 8 days also averaging 42degs. Month to date is +1.1[39.6]. Should end Dec. near +2.5[40.2]. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10days. The GEFS is better than 50/50 on at least 4" of Snow by Jan. 10. Looks like we are going to have that '1 out of every 15 Decs.' that has No Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Another first for the 2010’s. NYC has a record breaking 3 years in this decade with the November monthly minimum temperature lower than December. This November also set the record by being 9 degrees colder than December. NYC Year.....Nov..Dec 2018.....15....24 2015.....32....34 2014.....22....24 1938.....16....19 1929.....12.....13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 7 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: The PNA ridge is why it is not going to happen. Who said it's not going to happen ? The Euro is very close. The gfs is more amplified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may be the best shot we have to bump NYC above a T for December snowfall. But I would like to see what the Euro shows within 120 hrs first. The storm over the Rockies may act as a kicker and limit amplification. But any snowfall at this point would be nice to close out the month. Agree Every model was more amplified last night. The dip in the nao for late month might help us out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Who said it's not going to happen ? The Euro is very close. The gfs is more amplified. no support at all at this point - unless YOU can wishcast it to reality...…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no support at all at this point - unless YOU can wishcast it to reality...…… Depends what you're expecting, thats not that far off from a 1-2 inch wet snow event if it ticks north a bit but yea this is not going to be a big event, temps are marginal anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 on a more positive note - the SOI is dropping towards negative https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: on a more positive note - the SOI is dropping towards negative https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ MJO continues to drive the bus. It looks progressive, generally think post Jan 5th looking better for us in the NE. The SOI dip is (in my view) a function of convection finally starting to emerge over the maritime continent. Think all the SSW talk is misplaced on weather twitter right now. Story is the amplitude of this MJO. Much better correlation to sensible weather at this time of year. The MJO amp is arguing this gets interesting in January (esp. Second week) but being patient on the cold has been the correct play. Something I can't shake though is the durability question. SSW's in theory have lag time before you see increased and durable blocking when they couple with the tropo. So what happens if we get to 8-1 and then still have a little bit of a lull to see non-Pac blocking show up? That's as big of a question to me as the exact timing of the cool down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: MJO continues to drive the bus. It looks progressive, generally think post Jan 5th looking better for us in the NE. The SOI dip is (in my view) a function of convection finally starting to emerge over the maritime continent. Think all the SSW talk is misplaced on weather twitter right now. Story is the amplitude of this MJO. Much better correlation to sensible weather at this time of year. The MJO amp is arguing this gets interesting in January (esp. Second week) but being patient on the cold has been the correct play. Something I can't shake though is the durability question. SSW's in theory have lag time before you see increased and durable blocking when they couple with the tropo. So what happens if we get to 8-1 and then still have a little bit of a lull to see non-Pac blocking show up? That's as big of a question to me as the exact timing of the cool down. I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: MJO continues to drive the bus. It looks progressive, generally think post Jan 5th looking better for us in the NE. The SOI dip is (in my view) a function of convection finally starting to emerge over the maritime continent. Think all the SSW talk is misplaced on weather twitter right now. Story is the amplitude of this MJO. Much better correlation to sensible weather at this time of year. The MJO amp is arguing this gets interesting in January (esp. Second week) but being patient on the cold has been the correct play. Something I can't shake though is the durability question. SSW's in theory have lag time before you see increased and durable blocking when they couple with the tropo. So what happens if we get to 8-1 and then still have a little bit of a lull to see non-Pac blocking show up? That's as big of a question to me as the exact timing of the cool down. This GEFS MJO outlook is totally insane if it has a chance of verifying - the Euro outlook is more likely IMO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: I’m thinking the same. We don’t even need the SSW, the pattern is going to get colder come mid-January (1/15+) just from the change in tropospheric/tropical convective forcing. I think the 12/31-1/1 “event” is nothing, total non event. When the GFS is the only model showing something and even what is shows isn’t that impressive, something is seriously wrong. I’m thinking 1/15 through mid to late February is cold/snowy, then that’s it. No cold and snowy March this time around, spring comes and stays by early March IMO. The +QBO will be in the bottom of the stratosphere and strengthening at that point, I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and that’s all she wrote I know I said it earlier but I hope that you are correct. Winter is short but intense, and then we get a real spring---I would love for that to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 On 12/24/2018 at 9:50 AM, LibertyBell said: Last week when we got to 60 and it was raining I saw mosquitoes and flies. Not many but a few were there, maybe all that standing water is why they are still alive? I have a small pond in my backyard and my ground isn't frozen here yet, maybe that needs to happen for us to kill off all this stuff. Yeah I was seeing some insects too. Doesn't take much warmth to get them active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Through December 24, New York City has had a mean temperature of 39.6°, which is 1.1° above normal. The remainder of the monthly will likely average close to that figure. Running sensitivity analysis on the latest guidance, NYC will likely finish December with a mean temperature somewhere between 39.2° to 40.3°. The probability of a warmer than normal December is 96%. The probability of December's average 40.0° or above is 42%. Even as some prospect for a small accumulation of snow exists for the remaining week of the month, snowfall will wind up below normal. But change could be coming. 5 of the past 6 days have seen the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above. A high amplitude MJO is likely to persist through at least the first week of January. Three December cases saw the MJO reach Phase 5 for 3 or more days with an amplitude of 2.000 or above: 2003, 2014, 2015. All three cases featured above normal snowfall in January. January Snowfall: 2004: 17.3" 2015: 16.9" 2016: 27.9" In the nearer-term, the very wet 2018 will likely see additional precipitation fall in parts of the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern states where numerous locations have recorded their wettest year on record. The following locations are within 1.00" of their annual precipitation record and could set a new mark by the time the month ends: Amherst, MA: 63.05" (Record: 63.41", 2008) Green Bay: 38.25" (Record: 38.36", 1985) Pittsburgh: 56.75" (Record: 57.41", 2004) Sterling, VA: 65.12" (Record: 65.69", 2003) In addition, the following locations are within 2.00" of their record: Caesar's Head, SC; Cape Hatteras; Columbus, OH; and, Williamsport, PA. Finally, if the Grinch can be found on the weather maps, it is in ENSO Region 1+2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies have been running warmer than is typically the case for a Central Pacific-based El Niño event. That situation will need to be monitored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 The SSW, while won't be necessary for cold/snow for the mid Jan to mid Feb period, can allow for an extension of winter well into March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Looks bleak in the snowfall dept next 7-10 days....GFS is all alone....amd it’s fairky mild through 1/1-1/2 time frame. December will finish at least +2 despite a bitter cold first 10 days of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Nice little snow event on the 30th on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks bleak in the snowfall dept next 7-10 days....GFS is all alone....amd it’s fairky mild through 1/1-1/2 time frame. December will finish at least +2 despite a bitter cold first 10 days of the month. The 30th has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: no support at all at this point - unless YOU can wishcast it to reality...…… No one is wishcasting It's annoying man. Look at the models and pattern Pars gfs even though it has been awful has a light event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The 30th has potential Could see a 1-2 inch event then. What’s decent here is that’s in the mid range now and not 10 days away... I’d be happy with an inch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: This GEFS MJO outlook is totally insane if it has a chance of verifying - the Euro outlook is more likely IMO: I dont think either is right. Euro has a tendency to get stuck in P6, probably why it's trying to kill off the event. GEFS also just going batshit with convection and the RMM charts go haywire. This is a situation where I dont think those charts are the best way to diagnose the pattern. There was a hint of an ERW signature a couple of days ago, my guess that's what's causing RMM craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The SSW, while won't be necessary for cold/snow for the mid Jan to mid Feb period, can allow for an extension of winter well into March. Why would a SSW event at the end of December/early January allow a cold and snowy pattern to extend well into March, over 2 months later? I don’t understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 25 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I dont think either is right. Euro has a tendency to get stuck in P6, probably why it's trying to kill off the event. GEFS also just going batshit with convection and the RMM charts go haywire. This is a situation where I dont think those charts are the best way to diagnose the pattern. There was a hint of an ERW signature a couple of days ago, my guess that's what's causing RMM craziness. I hear the SSW can actually cause the MJO to get pretty strong for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Could see a 1-2 inch event then. What’s decent here is that’s in the mid range now and not 10 days away... I’d be happy with an inch at this point. Agree man Even 1-3 inches will be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: This GEFS MJO outlook is totally insane if it has a chance of verifying - the Euro outlook is more likely IMO: MJO is not very strong on Euro or UKMET, the GFS has something wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Could see a 1-2 inch event then. What’s decent here is that’s in the mid range now and not 10 days away... I’d be happy with an inch at this point. inland north of 78 or 80 yes - immediate metro NYC a mixed bag rain/snow - little accumulation as of right now - temps borderline at best ……….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 55 minutes ago, qg_omega said: MJO is not very strong on Euro or UKMET, the GFS has something wrong with it. The CFS may be a good compromise between the GFS and Euro. While the GFS can be over amplified at times, the Euro is often too weak when initialized in phase 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: inland north of 78 or 80 yes - immediate metro NYC a mixed bag rain/snow - little accumulation as of right now - temps borderline at best ……….. 12/30, if it even happens that is, looks like a very minor event and yes with borderline temps. We are going to have to wait until mid-January before the pattern gets favorable for snow/cold in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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