MJO812 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: inland north of 78 or 80 yes - immediate metro NYC a mixed bag rain/snow - little accumulation as of right now - temps borderline at best ……….. Agree as of right now but the cold air is nearby so a shift south or even north isn't out of the question. This storm has been on the models for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The CFS may be a good compromise between the GFS and Euro. While the GFS can be over amplified at times, the Euro is often too weak when initialized in phase 5. that would bring it into favorable phase 8 during the second week of January after the 7th - during the second week Jan we will probably begin to see the effects of the SSW at the surface also - so that's when we should begin to see consistent cold outbreaks in the east with increased chances of frozen precip... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that would bring it into favorable phase 8 during the second week of January after the 7th - during the second week Jan we will probably begin to see the effects of the SSW at the surface also - so that's when we should begin to see consistent cold outbreaks in the east with increased chances of frozen precip... That would fit nicely with with the general 2010’s and El Niño more backloaded winter theme.It has been a challenge getting colder Decembers. 2017, 2010, and 2009 were the only recent years that were able to buck the milder December trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Old gfs is further southeast just like the Euro and gefs and EPS. The para has sucked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Old gfs is further southeast just like the Euro and gefs and EPS. The para has sucked . did it suck at 12Z ? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks... I think it’s mediocre but it can certainly produce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The pattern on Sunday will still be poor for a snowstorm in the metro. It’s not just going to flip conducive in 5 days, it’s going to take time, but it will get there. It’s obvious that the change is coming but not that early, it’s going to take a couple of weeks... So you favor a miss or rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: did it suck at 12Z ? It still sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 I can't believe people are bypassing Sunday's threat and looking at 2 more weeks. Euro trended north from 0z and shows a light snow event Cmc is a miss Para is amplified but rain Gfs is amplified but still miss Gefs is all over I continue to believe we have a chance next week. The nao will be negative next weekend along with a favorable pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: So you favor a miss or rain ? If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: If something actually happens I think it’s minor and rain, most likely a miss though. You will get your cold and snow pattern come mid January and it probably lasts for awhile, into mid to late February then it’s game over for winter IMO. I don’t think March is going to produce this time. And you don’t need this ridiculously hyped SSW for it to happen, the tropospheric forcing will do it anyway on its own, even without help from the stratosphere. Sunday, in my opinion, is not for us March probably wont have a historic snow storm, but hey anything in March will be better than how this December has been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Last 6 days of Dec are averaging 41degs., or 6degs. AN. All 8 days averaging 40degs. Month to date is +1.1[39.5]. Dec. should end at +2.1[39.9] EURO is No Snow for 10 days. GEFS is 40% chance of at least 4" by the 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 38 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Last 6 days of Dec are averaging 41degs., or 6degs. AN. All 8 days averaging 40degs. Month to date is +1.1[39.5]. Dec. should end at +2.1[39.9] EURO is No Snow for 10 days. GEFS is 40% chance of at least 4" by the 11th. Starting to look a bit bleak. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Today's SOI value is -3.32. That's the first negative SOI reading since December 9. The long stretch of positive values is atypical of an El Niño event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 December temperature departures will get another boost Friday into Saturday. Highs in the 50’s late Friday into early Saturday. Some of the warmest spots in NJ could make another run on 60. So a continuation of the mild December theme of the 2010’s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: March probably wont have a historic snow storm, but hey anything in March will be better than how this December has been. That's not saying much-most stations will end December with 0.0 for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's not saying much-most stations will end December with 0.0 for snow. If the 30th wave doesn't happen. It can easily come back on the models as we get closer ( might be the typical vanishing time period ) If this wave does fail , I don't see anything good until the 2nd week of January just like everyone has been saying. I hate losing opportunities in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: If the 30th wave doesn't happen. It can easily come back on the models as we get closer ( might be the typical vanishing time period ) If this wave does fail , I don't see anything good until the 2nd week of January just like everyone has been saying. I hate losing opportunities in the winter. We've had so many nice snowstorms in the past decade, it's bound to swing and miss some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: If the 30th wave doesn't happen. It can easily come back on the models as we get closer ( might be the typical vanishing time period ) If this wave does fail , I don't see anything good until the 2nd week of January just like everyone has been saying. I hate losing opportunities in the winter. Just now, North and West said: We've had so many nice snowstorms in the past decade, it's bound to swing and miss some years. N and W you are absolutely correct. Anthony, you have been so good at identifying potential storms and holding firm in your belief that they may impact us---and being correct. At some point we have to return to normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: N and W you are absolutely correct. Anthony, you have been so good at identifying potential storms and holding firm in your belief that they may impact us---and being correct. At some point we have to return to normal Agree and when that does happen , it's going to drive people crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Agree and when that does happen , it's going to drive people crazy. We have no control---just sit back and enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: That's not saying much-most stations will end December with 0.0 for snow. One of the worst Decembers in my lifetime regarding winter weather. It can only go up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: One of the worst Decembers in my lifetime regarding winter weather. It can only go up from here. That seems a bit extreme; I thought it was interesting being very cold early in the month. Of course, we all enjoy snow, but I thought it was interesting. I could do without so much rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 GWO and MJO are moving in the right direction. Obviously the stratospheric warming is taking place is well. January is gonna be fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, North and West said: That seems a bit extreme; I thought it was interesting being very cold early in the month. Of course, we all enjoy snow, but I thought it was interesting. I could do without so much rain, though. Agreed Very wet month. And the beginning of the month(cold)should be occurring now and the (relative)warmth of the 2nd half should have occurred in the 1st half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Agreed Very wet month. And the beginning of the month(cold)should be occurring now and the (relative)warmth of the 2nd half should have occurred in the 1st half Of course. It's just interesting to see these things as I get older. I'm not as disappointed as my kids; it's good character-building for them to see this after enjoying a snow day in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, North and West said: That seems a bit extreme; I thought it was interesting being very cold early in the month. Of course, we all enjoy snow, but I thought it was interesting. I could do without so much rain, though. The early cold was a tease, the big snowstorm this month hit the SE, there was no snow, there was way too much rain, constant cutters. Temperature departures will end up at +2 or better. Nothing will ever be worse than Dec 2015 but it's in the top 5 worst (last 25-30) years to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The early cold was a tease, the big snowstorm this month hit the SE, there was no snow, there was way too much rain, constant cutters. Temperature departures will end up at +2 or better. Nothing will ever be worse than Dec 2015 but it's in the top 5 worst (last 25-30) years to me. Yes, but we can't control it, and we've been spoiled recently. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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