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WinterWxLuvr

November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing.

 

Yeah I was looking at that earlier. Upper 20s to low 30s verbatim. Would be some cold tushes for early morning Black Friday shopping. Upper teens- low 20s.

Remember all the concern about 70 for Turkey day not too long ago? We got full on early winter mode happening now!

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57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I was looking at that earlier. Upper 20s to low 30s verbatim. Would be some cold tushes for early morning Black Friday shopping. Upper teens- low 20s.

Remember all the concern about 70 for Turkey day not too long ago? We got full on early winter mode happening now!

Oh god please let it be clear, crisp, and very cold on thanksgiving. That would be glorious. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing.

I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Oh god please let it be clear, crisp, and very cold on thanksgiving. That would be glorious. 

Both GFS at 18z say Thanksgiving not cold at all.  Mid 50s it looks to me.  Unless you are in Maine.  

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1 hour ago, schinz said:

I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them.  JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close.  He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were.  Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event.  Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc.  All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us.  JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us.

All the models showed a lot of mixed precip near the cities. It was pretty remarkable how well it turned out but we've also been on the losing side of many marginal events in all winter months over the years. It was pretty logical to hedge on the low end of frozen due to the shallow depth of the cold and the calendar date. The euro nailed it though. Incredibly accurate with the surface and mids. The fact that the storm ended up on the cold side of guidance was a surprise to me. I did expect some snow. Especially in the NW zones. Seemed likely out there. My yard comes up short often with razor thin margins with temps. Ended up being a really nice event for everyone along and west of 95. Hopefully its the first of many this winter 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All the models showed a lot of mixed precip near the cities. It was pretty remarkable how well it turned out but we've also been on the losing side of many marginal events in all winter months over the years. It was pretty logical to hedge on the low end of frozen due to the shallow depth of the cold and the calendar date. The euro nailed it though. Incredibly accurate with the surface and mids. The fact that the storm ended up on the cold side of guidance was a surprise to me. I did expect some snow. Especially in the NW zones. Seemed likely out there. My yard comes up short often with razor thin margins with temps. Ended up being a really nice event for everyone along and west of 95. Hopefully its the first of many this winter 

One thing I learned is that thickness doesn’t have to be 540.  Somehow I always thought that above 540 and you are screwed.  Maybe 543 in deep winter.  

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing I learned is that thickness doesn’t have to be 540.  Somehow I always thought that above 540 and you are screwed.  Maybe 543 in deep winter.  

I think it is great to look back on such a unique event and learn.  One thing I learned, unfortunately first hand when my 1:15 trip from hagerstown to Westminster ended up being 6 hours, is that it really doesn't matter how "warm the roads are" if the surface is below freezing and heavy frozen precipitation is falling!!!  Those warm roads don't end up very well!!

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Perfect for Thanksgiving, in my opinion. It’s not Christmas, FFS.

I have family in the south now, so I have gone there the last decade or so for the holidays. I've grown to like 70 and sun on Thanksgiving. Great football weather...

That said, after nearly touching 80 with a tornado warning on Christmas Eve or Christmas in 2016, I decided I would spare no expense to get the family further north for Christmas. I'm not doing that again. 

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting.

I may end up staying in CT this year for Thanksgiving. Would be my first one in a while. Hope you enjoy our beautiful state! :) 

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1 hour ago, schinz said:

I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them.  JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close.  He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were.  Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event.  Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc.  All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us.  JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us.

Yes, but some of those models didn't get everything right. For example, although the HRRR handled the northern tier of VA well with it's consistent snow prediction, it crapped the bed down here around Charlottesville. Never got any of the sweet snow the HRRR was trying to sell. 

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22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Perfect for Thanksgiving, in my opinion. It’s not Christmas, FFS.

I was hoping for rain with a high of 38.  Probably too much to expect.  

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch...

Don't set expectations too high. Meaning don't expect an event to come easy during the first week of Dec. It might happen but just having a good longwave pattern is only a piece of the puzzle. Our big events usually happen when the NAO goes from negative to neutral or positive. Sometimes during a building -NAO it can be dry here. Even moreso in the NE. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited to see the high latitudes cooperate leading into Dec but it could take weeks before anything happens. 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have family in the south now, so I have gone there the last decade or so for the holidays. I've grown to like 70 and sun on Thanksgiving. Great football weather...

That said, after nearly touching 80 with a tornado warning on Christmas Eve or Christmas in 2016, I decided I would spare no expense to get the family further north for Christmas. I'm not doing that again.

Honestly, having it be warm and comfortable on Thanksgiving is ideal. If it’s a torch and there’s no sign of an end to the flamethrower coming off the Pacific, then it might be a different story, but all things being equal I much prefer a Thanksgiving during which you can open the windows and doors, fry a turkey without losing feeling in your fingers, and let the kids run around without freezing their arses off!

We’re going to have 20 people at my house for Christmas, and the kids can end up with frostbite for all I care. Christmas is a different beast altogether. :lol:

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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Honestly, having it be warm and comfortable on Thanksgiving is ideal. If it’s a torch and there’s no sign of an end to the flamethrower coming off the Pacific, then it might be a different story, but all things being equal I much prefer a Thanksgiving during which you can open the windows and doors, fry a turkey without losing feeling in your fingers, and let the kids run around without freezing their arses off!

We’re going to have 20 people at my house for Christmas, and the kids can end up with frostbite for all I care. Christmas is a different beast altogether. :lol:

Knowing what may be in store for Dec I guess I can deal with it and hide in the basement.  You did make a compelling counterpoint however.  

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't set expectations too high. Meaning don't expect an event to come easy during the first week of Dec. It might happen but just having a good longwave pattern is only a piece of the puzzle. Our big events usually happen when the NAO goes from negative to neutral or positive. Sometimes during a building -NAO it can be dry here. Even moreso in the NE. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited to see the high latitudes cooperate leading into Dec but it could take weeks before anything happens. 

Which makes me wonder about potential in mid-December?...If the pattern is set to relax...maybe that would be the time if we get something?...

So...what can make things, well...NOT dry during a -NAO phase? (What's the other piece(s) needed?)

And please bear with me...I'm not trying to hype anything, nor do I expect anything to come "easy" or be a sure bet...I'm still learning the mechanics of our winter weather around here, and this is the first weak-mod niño I've actively followed...Each year I've learned something new (with the last two years being the harshest lessons, lol). Still tempering expectations...

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Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. 

For once, we agree on something.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. 

You had me at strong ale.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

12z FV3 and 18z GFS start to tease us with an early December threat.  Obviously well supported by the pattern. 

I’ve been watching that period myself! Hoping it comes to fruition. This has been wild to start the close proximity of winter off on the right foot. Been a long time. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting.

What part of Western CT Bob? Litchfield County or Fairfield County area? 

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