Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is slightly colder Coating to an inch is likely for NYC and coast with higher amounts inland. It's certainly warmer. oveIt's over. Pray for a few flakes at the start instead of a few pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I’m taking bets that Central Park gets more than 1.5 inches recorded. If I get it wrong I don’t post for a month, if I get it right you don’t post for a month I’ll take that bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's certainly warmer. oveIt's over. Pray for a few flakes at the start instead of a few pellets. He must have been looking at the 850mb level which is marginally cooler in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This is pretty accurate IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 That's one hell of a ZR sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Might get pretty wild under the still-deepening upper low Friday morning. Very steep lapse rates and some CAPE showing up that are aligned with a pressure rise/fall couplet. Dynamic cooling w/ that could lead to some TSSN squalls, probably over higher terrain just W/NW/N of the city in PA, nrn NJ into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Might get pretty wild under the still-deepening upper low Friday morning. Very steep lapse rates and some CAPE showing up that are aligned with a pressure rise/fall couplet. Dynamic cooling w/ that could lead to some TSSN squalls, probably over higher terrain just W/NW/N of the city in PA, nrn NJ into New England. That's nuts if that happens. ::will be cleaning out as many leaves as possible tonight:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 39 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: This is pretty accurate IMO Link? Just got an email from the NWS Mt. Holly's webmaster saying they're having tech difficulties with posting their usual maps for the CWA. This map is even better as it has info for several NWS offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z RGEM came in colder. Shows a lot of snow and ice for the interior and some snow, ice and then rain for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nam has the city around freezing throughout the day. Very messy tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said: If you click through their briefing you will find it. Odd they have not updated their winter page though. Yeah, but that's from 5 pm yesterday, which is way out of date...they're having tech issues as per my other post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam has the city around freezing throughout the day. Very messy tomorrow The city actually warms up to 34 degrees by 22z before falling back to 32 under heavy precipitation. The sounding supports freezing rain at 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 43 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Link? Just got an email from the NWS Mt. Holly's webmaster saying they're having tech difficulties with posting their usual maps for the CWA. This map is even better as it has info for several NWS offices. I saw it on their Twitter account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The city actually warms up to 34 degrees by 22z before falling back to 32 under heavy precipitation. The sounding supports freezing rain at 01z. Just be careful driving. Travel is going to be the biggest trouble. Freezing rain on top of ice pellets is a recipe for disaster on the roads. Especially because up here, everyone drives like maniacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 `12z HRDPS has the city barely seeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Toss the GFS precip type graphics, its thermal profiles are out to lunch. Pretty much on board with the rest of the guidance in terms of 1.50-2.00" LE event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 the Low pressure has been trending tiny bit stronger -- about 3 to 4mb and the position is staying just offshore - 12z GFS has it just south of LI instead of on the NJ coastline. If it ticks east a bit over the next few runs we should be ok NYC and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 With fresh perfectly timed injection of cold/dry air and ample moisture screaming north east; I think I-95 is good for 2-4"+, with more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: I saw it on their Twitter account. Thanks! I've resisted Twitter to date, but if the NWS website is falling apart and the FB page has been disabled (it has, by FB for secrurity reasons according to the NWS webmaster), then maybe it's time to sign up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The city actually warms up to 34 degrees by 22z before falling back to 32 under heavy precipitation. The sounding supports freezing rain at 01z. Yeah but 32 and heavy rain in NYC doesnt equate to much icing(latent heat release). System is a wash, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I'm a bit more pessimistic about snow chances than I was yesterday. The surface low has trended stronger which keeps the flow more easterly at the mid levels while the low levels have trended colder thanks to CAD. Models almost always under forecast low level cold air so it's really not a surprise. Think a safe bet is a coating to an inch in the usual highly urbanized areas in and around NYC with 2-4" for the NW burbs and the Hudson Valley. Not thinking much for Long Island at this time but I could see the North shore of Suffolk accumulating some. Overall think that the biggest threat will be with freezing rain and sleet. Some areas, especially North of Rt 80 and West of the Hudson river may not get above freezing at the surface until well after midnight on Friday morning. Even the GFS which is terrible for temperature profiles has those areas hanging onto freezing rain at 06z Friday. Still think there is a chance that we snow on Friday morning as the ULL swings through. I think this is pretty spot on. Anyone near mid 50s water hoping for accumulating snow on an east flow is in for disappointment. If it were February with upper 30s water temps it would be a different story. Our big November snows on the coast have come with a typical benchmark track and a strong CCB that’s able to inject cold on a strong northerly flow. i think this is a coating in the city and over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: That's one hell of a ZR sounding. That's a rather blatant sleet profile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: That's a rather blatant sleet profile. Eh. One could argue either way. Borderline leaning toward rain. Midlevel torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh. One could argue either way. Borderline leaning toward rain. Midlevel torch. Looks like some freezing rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, CarLover014 said: Looks like some freezing rain to me. Agreed. But there wouldn't be much freezing at 32 at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh. One could argue either way. Borderline leaning toward rain. Midlevel torch. The winds directions on both the NAM sand GFS at 12Z are 060-080 for the most part which would argue it should go to rain easily at the coast and even NYC. The NAM does show signs from 21-00Z of trying to back towards 040-050 again. If that happens it could be frozen longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: That's a rather blatant sleet profile. I disagree, normally you want to see 925mb temps below freezing to get sleet. In this case the column is above freezing except for the lowest level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thanks! I've resisted Twitter to date, but if the NWS website is falling apart and the FB page has been disabled (it has, by FB for secrurity reasons according to the NWS webmaster), then maybe it's time to sign up... Yeah, a lot more NWS offices are using twitter more and more. If you download the app on your device it is very easy to get push notifications during a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Agreed. But there wouldn't be much freezing at 32 at that rate. If the temperature verifies at 32 exactly then sure, but it's possible that it could end up a degree or two colder, especially on colder and elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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