RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, David-LI said: Sorry weenies. GFS is a rainstorm. You might see a flake or two inland. New GFS (FV3) and Euro are still significant snowstorms for the 95 corridor (4-8" as per the maps, atlhough they usually include sleet, so depth may be less, but mass would be the same); 3 km high-res NAM is also similarly bullish on snow. Going to make for a tough forecast with some models at this level and others showing only an inch or two for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 hours ago, David-LI said: Sorry weenies. GFS is a rainstorm. You might see a flake or two inland. Never use the gfs in cad situations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Never use the gfs in cad situations nam warmed up also. nyc sees literally flakes before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Never use the gfs in cad situations If that's the case then we'd probably see more sleet or freezing rain before things warm up. Mid-level will torch in a hurry. However it's not the best CAD setup, that high is weakening fast and scooting eastward. I see a mid 30s cold rain setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If that's the case then we'd probably see more sleet or freezing rain before things warm up. Mid-level will torch in a hurry. However it's not the best CAD setup, that high is weakening fast and scooting eastward. I see a mid 30s cold rain setup. I don’t think so I think Central Park gets accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I don’t think so I think Central Park gets accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 hours ago, RU848789 said: New GFS (FV3) and Euro are still significant snowstorms for the 95 corridor (4-8" as per the maps, atlhough they usually include sleet, so depth may be less, but mass would be the same); 3 km high-res NAM is also similarly bullish on snow. Going to make for a tough forecast with some models at this level and others showing only an inch or two for 95. Heading to Weather US now ,,,,,,but can one of you guys POST last nights Euro, what exactly did it look like and show ? Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Heading to Weather US now ,,,,,,but can one of you guys POST last nights Euro, what exactly did it look like and show ? Thanx 4-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: 4-6 Thanks Rockerfeller I just saw it-----anyone else feel free to chime in but still looks like snow to me especially North n West 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nws has the right idea with less than one inch for NYC and the coast. Coating to two inches to the NW and highest amounts above 1k feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nws has the right idea with less than one inch for NYC and the coast. Coating to two inches to the NW and highest amounts above 1k feet I think Central Park records 2 inches tomorrow. It’ll snow for about 3 hours of heavy wet snow. Dynamic cooling will cool all columns below freezing and it’ll snow for about 3 hours. I think nws is always conservative or over never in the middle just my opinion. We’ll see tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, RockerfellerSnow said: 4-6 The EURO showing this several runs in a row... it can’t be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The EURO showing this several runs in a row... it can’t be discounted. This is mostly sleet accumulations Still impressive for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I think Central Park records 2 inches tomorrow. It’ll snow for about 3 hours of heavy wet snow. Dynamic cooling will cool all columns below freezing and it’ll snow for about 3 hours. I think nws is always conservative or over never in the middle just my opinion. We’ll see tomorrow Dynamic cooling only really comes into play with BL issues. The problem here isn’t the BL as much as the mid level torch from the east winds. So while the city may see some flakes, I would not bet on more than a sloppy half inch on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It's hard to think that two weeks ago it was in the mid-70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dynamic cooling only really comes into play with BL issues. The problem here isn’t the BL as much as the mid level torch from the east winds. So while the city may see some flakes, I would not bet on more than a sloppy half inch on the grass I’m taking bets that Central Park gets more than 1.5 inches recorded. If I get it wrong I don’t post for a month, if I get it right you don’t post for a month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'm a bit more pessimistic about snow chances than I was yesterday. The surface low has trended stronger which keeps the flow more easterly at the mid levels while the low levels have trended colder thanks to CAD. Models almost always under forecast low level cold air so it's really not a surprise. Think a safe bet is a coating to an inch in the usual highly urbanized areas in and around NYC with 2-4" for the NW burbs and the Hudson Valley. Not thinking much for Long Island at this time but I could see the North shore of Suffolk accumulating some. Overall think that the biggest threat will be with freezing rain and sleet. Some areas, especially North of Rt 80 and West of the Hudson river may not get above freezing at the surface until well after midnight on Friday morning. Even the GFS which is terrible for temperature profiles has those areas hanging onto freezing rain at 06z Friday. Still think there is a chance that we snow on Friday morning as the ULL swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm a bit more pessimistic about snow chances than I was yesterday. The surface low has trended stronger which keeps the flow more easterly at the mid levels while the low levels have trended colder thanks to CAD. Models almost always under forecast low level cold air so it's really not a surprise. Think a safe bet is a coating to an inch in the usual highly urbanized areas in and around NYC with 2-4" for the NW burbs and the Hudson Valley. Not thinking much for Long Island at this time but I could see the North shore of Suffolk accumulating some. Overall think that the biggest threat will be with freezing rain and sleet. Some areas, especially North of Rt 80 and West of the Hudson river may never get above freezing at the surface until well after midnight on Friday morning. Even the GFS which is terrible for temperature profiles has those areas hanging onto freezing rain at 06z Friday. Still think there is a chance that we snow on Friday morning as the ULL swings through. Yeah, low level cold NW will be interesting to watch. Its over for the city. Hopefully starts as some mood flakes but even that looks like it'll be a tough task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, low level cold NW will be interesting to watch. Its over for the city. Hopefully starts as some mood flakes but even that looks like it'll be a tough task. Think almost everyone here North of Rt 78 should see at least some flakes to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Has anyone seen a snowfall map from Mt. Holly yet? Upton has been issuing them since yesterday but radio silence from Mt. Holly, unless I'm having some weird browser problems. The fact that I haven't seen one posted anywhere tells me it's not out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 23 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I’m taking bets that Central Park gets more than 1.5 inches recorded. If I get it wrong I don’t post for a month, if I get it right you don’t post for a month Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I’m taking bets that Central Park gets more than 1.5 inches recorded. If I get it wrong I don’t post for a month, if I get it right you don’t post for a month yesplease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Has anyone seen a snowfall map from Mt. Holly yet? Upton has been issuing them since yesterday but radio silence from Mt. Holly, unless I'm having some weird browser problems. The fact that I haven't seen one posted anywhere tells me it's not out. Good catch. They haven't issued any maps. Blank May dated map on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Has anyone seen a snowfall map from Mt. Holly yet? Upton has been issuing them since yesterday but radio silence from Mt. Holly, unless I'm having some weird browser problems. The fact that I haven't seen one posted anywhere tells me it's not out. No, they haven't updated that product since the beginning of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Has anyone seen a snowfall map from Mt. Holly yet? Upton has been issuing them since yesterday but radio silence from Mt. Holly, unless I'm having some weird browser problems. The fact that I haven't seen one posted anywhere tells me it's not out. If you click through their briefing you will find it. Odd they have not updated their winter page though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Based off the latest NAM, NYC sees less snow than it did on previous runs. I agree with the posters above, a few flakes flying before the changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Strongly doubting this type of a dry slot, no other model has it, not even the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Nam is slightly colder Coating to an inch is likely for NYC and coast with higher amounts inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 NAM came in a tick warmer at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Up 2-3 degrees in some areas from the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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