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11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion


dmillz25
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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Precip usually comes in faster than modeled with these type of systems so this might help out everyone in regards to frozen precip.

Yes but your standard light to moderate overrunning precip isn't going to get it done this early in the season. Really need to wait until the heavier precip comes in and by then the mid-levels are beginning to warm. Think it's going to be mostly a mix of sleet and snow to start followed by a slow changeover to ice and then eventually rain by Friday morning unless the ULL passes further offshore.

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z Euro just came out and shows 0.4-0.8", still, of frozen precip up through early Thursday evening for the 95 corridor, before the changeover to heavy rain, with 1.2-2.0" of total precip falling (so over 1" of rain on top of any snow/sleet). Euro has had a similar solution for several runs now and we're only 48-60 hours from the event, so it's possible it'll be right. Euro also showing a fair amount more snow/sleet inland, as expected. Pretty sure the NWS will want to see more model consensus, say, 24 hours from now, before taking a snow threat more seriously for the 95 corridor. However, I could see winter storm watches going up for interior sections if tonight's model runs continue to show significant potential snow/sleet - and maybe advisories tomorrow afternoon for the 95 corridor if a few inches or more look likely by then.  

It's going to be a very wet system. Some guidance has over 2" LE. 

Could be a pretty bad situation with heavy wet snow followed by heavy rain (Roof collapses and tree/powerline damage).

Hope that the gutters are cleaned out and that most of the trees are bare.

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

they're all over social media and people are lapping them up like a thirsty dog.

Correct. That's the nightmare that pops up each and every time there's a storm threat; NJ.com or a similar Patch-like site will pick up on an amateur forecast blog (not like the stable geniuses that populate here) that posts these. Remember the 45" storm that was supposed to arrive a few years ago? It was due to a map like this.

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2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Correct. That's the nightmare that pops up each and every time there's a storm threat; NJ.com or a similar Patch-like site will pick up on an amateur forecast blog (not like the stable geniuses that populate here) that posts these. Remember the 45" storm that was supposed to arrive a few years ago? It was due to a map like this.

worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people....

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15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people....

We have the opposite problem up here in the hinterlands. The customary knee-jerk reaction is to bemoan the "weather liars" and then stand around the water cooler preaching about how these things always go out to sea.

Don't ask me how that narrative still holds up in the era of 2-4 KUs per winter.

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46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to be a very wet system. Some guidance has over 2" LE. 

Could be a pretty bad situation with heavy wet snow followed by heavy rain (Roof collapses and tree/powerline damage).

Hope that the gutters are cleaned out and that most of the trees are bare.

Easily over 50% of leaves still in the trees here in Manhattan. Any heavy wet snow will be a big issue. Even if it’s only a couple of inches. 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Easily over 50% of leaves still in the trees here in Manhattan. Any heavy wet snow will be a big issue. Even if it’s only a couple of inches. 

Similar situation out here in the NW burbs although we're a lot better off than we would have been even a week ago.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Similar situation out here in the NW burbs although we're a lot better off than we would have been even a week ago.

Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done.  I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them.

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done.  I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them.

Up by you, yeah for sure. Amazing amount of tree damage up there last March. The last decade has been horrendous for local trees/forests. 

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Stick season up here, even my oaks are just about done.  I wonder if with the ground so saturated even bare trees will have issues if enough snow sticks to them.

Sounds like you're a week or two ahead of us further South. Heavy wet snow has the potential to do damage regardless of foliage. Lost a smaller maple tree to one of the storms last March. 

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10 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

18z NAM-12km went up in Central PA, and a little in N-NJ

namconus_asnow_neus_27.png

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

The Snow depth and Ferrier maps for the NAM seem far more accurate; general 1-3" NW of 95 with 3-6 in higher elevations of central PA.

 

E: The 12k snow depth maps look much better for PA and NNJ, not really sure why other than it being slightly more generous with QPF and a smidge cooler. 

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