MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Definitely possible. But we all know how hard it is to accumulate snow in central park in November. Cad situations can do wonders 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: Definitely possible. But we all know how hard it is to accumulate snow in central park in November. 32 or lower it will accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Think freezing rain will be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 It changes to rain finally but still an impressive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: NYC sees 2 or 3 hours of snow at most before the rain takes over. As Eric said above, 850s are really warm across most of PA too. Freezing Rain will be an issue as 2m temps are 28 to 30 degrees Yeah they torch but it may be more snow to sleet before dryslot. Precip cuts off abruptly. Also, slight uptick for us flatlanders on the realistic clown map sorry NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Definitely possible. But we all know how hard it is to accumulate snow in central park in November. Eh, I'd take mid November with cold ground over mid March any day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Eh, I'd take mid November with cold ground over mid March any day. Higher sun angle in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Think freezing rain will be a major issue. Yeah. Surface stays cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Higher sun angle in march Yeah me and my dreaded sun angle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Temps are near freezing for the coast Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3k fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 3k fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Why are you always negative? LOL TBH, we were just outside most of the big storms last year in our area. I have seen snow in Nov, heck we had significant snow in Nov 2012 right after Sandy, with Freehold getting 13 inches. Maybe Unc can check this out, but Nov snows seem to correlate with less snowy winters IIRC. Let's hope for an interesting winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: TBH, we were just outside most of the big storms last year in our area. I have seen snow in Nov, heck we had significant snow in Nov 2012 right after Sandy, with Freehold getting 13 inches. Maybe Unc can check this out, but Nov snows seem to correlate with less snowy winters IIRC. Let's hope for an interesting winter. You don't have to worry about that This winter is going to rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: You don't have to worry about that This winter is going to rock Just ordered a new snow blower. So I'm ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I checked the numbers today and since records began there has only been 6 days between 11/1-11/15 with over one inch of snow and 3 with over 2. Such snowfall is uncommon at this time of year. If the City can get an inch, that would be quite special given the time of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 If NAM verifies, can we finally put to rest the idea that it's an useless model long range? It has been consistent with snow for the coast since a few days ago, when it showed snow at hour 84 before the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The 0z RGEM run (snow is in centimeters): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z RGEM run (snow is in centimeters): Blowtorch. Even worse than 18z. Hoping for mood flakes at this point. RGEM is warm at surface and every layer from onset onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Blowtorch. Even worse than 18z. Hoping for mood flakes at this point. RGEM is warm at surface and every layer from onset onward. So far, the NAM, GFS, and RGEM have become less favorable at 0z than they were at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: So far, the NAM, GFS, and RGEM have become less favorable at 0z than they were at 18z. Yep. Going the wrong way. Very swift warm push aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yep. Going the wrong way. Very swift warm push aloft. These situations are fickle Take anything we can get since its only mid November. We will get plenty of snow this winter starting late this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: These situations are fickle Take anything we can get since its only mid November. We will get plenty of snow this winter starting late this month. Looking more like nothing, hopefully extended sleet. And we'll see, LR forecasts are worthless to me. We are spoiled here now. It's hard to keep this up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This is looking like a good winter since we are anxiously waiting every model run in early November, and it's still fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Looking more like nothing, hopefully extended sleet. And we'll see, LR forecasts are worthless to me. We are spoiled here now. It's hard to keep this up. We will start off as sleet and snow since dews will be low. The long range warmth is now gone on the models. All the tellies are becoming favorable . Watch for a snowstorm possibly at the end of this month of early december. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I think the coast ends up with sleet and snow to some rain with accumulations on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Blowtorch. Even worse than 18z. Hoping for mood flakes at this point. RGEM is warm at surface and every layer from onset onward. Eric and Don,,,,,is that nothing ? My math is bad but isn't that green and yellow area N n W of the city like 6 inches of snow ? 2.5 centimeters and change = an inch no? Maybe my eyes are clouding my judgement must be the WEENIE in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Eric and Don,,,,,is that nothing ? My math is bad but isn't that green and yellow area N n W of the city like 6 inches of snow ? 2.5 centimeters and change = an inch no? Maybe my eyes are clouding my judgement must be the WEENIE in me I only mentioned the difference between the two runs. There’s still a period of snow, but it’s not as impressive as it was on the 18z run. It will be interesting to see the ECMWF later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Sorry weenies. GFS is a rainstorm. You might see a flake or two inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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