powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Better for SNE than far NNE.The ULL helps SNE as it comes across south of LI Are we looking at the same 6z Euro?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12Z NAM is impressive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nam is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Are we looking at the same 6z Euro?! Not at all apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Are we looking at the same 6z Euro?! I didn’t mean snow wise . Sorry for the confusion . The ULL locks in our low level cold along with the high continually being modeled in better position . There were a few far NNE folks calling for rains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z Nam is french kissing some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NAM is really impressive with the WCB this run. Really good thump before it flips in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I mean the models are getting colder in each successive run, the SREFs finally show snow accumulating on Cape Cod, this is the first run they have shown snow to the coastline, 9z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z NAM is much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 12z NAM is much colder Lower 30s here in November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 And so it begins, time to hone skills (I have none) LOL Fun to watch the models evolve. Personally I'd go climo especially early and late season events. I did give notice on FB of the possibility of snow back on the 8th. I'm really going to try to go conservative in amounts this year especially on early calls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NAM drops a general 8-12” in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM drops a general 8-12” in SNE 12z NAM HIRES is much colder than the 32KM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is really impressive with the WCB this run. Really good thump before it flips in SNE. Yes it is. I think we want to see a trend toward this with the really good initial omega/thump. This sounding is for Hartford... already 0.65" of QPF by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM drops a general 8-12” in SNE I'd bet most of that is clown maps doing clown map things. Look like there's some mixing in there that could exaggerate the total and I doubt it'll fall as 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NAM... would be a pretty good storm, 925 temps creep up towards the end but could be first snow day for the kids.. when will the roads to warm for snow to stick talk start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I'd bet most of that is clown maps doing clown map things. Look like there's some mixing in there that could exaggerate the total and I doubt it'll fall as 10:1 ratio. Yeah I'd probably cut that roughly in half and say 4-8" on a NAM depiction...NAM is likely overjuiced and the ratios prob may be more like 8 to 1 or 7 to 1 because of an earlier flip than depicted. Still, that is a good depiction for trying to sneak in a low end warning event. As Ryan just said above, I think we really want this to trend into mostly a WCB thump...our best and freshest cold is at the onset of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 12z NAM HIRES is much colder than the 32KM NAM FYI, No one uses the 32km NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 If that clipper wasn't in the Ontario region we would have an all-out snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd probably cut that roughly in half and say 4-8" on a NAM depiction...NAM is likely overjuiced and the ratios prob may be more like 8 to 1 or 7 to 1 because of an earlier flip than depicted. Still, that is a good depiction for trying to sneak in a low end warning event. As Ryan just said above, I think we really want this to trend into mostly a WCB thump...our best and freshest cold is at the onset of the storm. The boundary layer cold is so impressive I think some of the normal early season rules don't apply. That airmass is ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: FYI, No one uses the 32km NAM. Oh ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The boundary layer cold is so impressive I think some of the normal early season rules don't apply. That airmass is ridiculous. I'll be surprised if most off of the immediate shore don't see a good couple of inches, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The boundary layer cold is so impressive I think some of the normal early season rules don't apply. That airmass is ridiculous. Yeah I'm not worried about low level cold at all unless you are right on immediate coastline...my worry is the midlevels do try and erode pretty quickly. We're blasting this at like a 543 thickness. But.....a caveat is the high is in a good spot to resist the WAA and if we have big omega, the that helps too...a combo of the two often produces models getting too aggressive with the midlevel warmth so we'll have to see if it ticks colder in the final 48 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not worried about low level cold at all unless you are right on immediate coastline...my worry is the midlevels do try and erode pretty quickly. We're blasting this at like a 543 thickness. But.....a caveat is the high is in a good spot to resist the WAA and if we have big omega, the that helps too...a combo of the two often produces models getting too aggressive with the midlevel warmth so we'll have to see if it ticks colder in the final 48 hours here. Yeah the key like we've said is to keep that initial thump impressive. If we can manage a good burst of omega we can certainly rock for a few hours. Even coastal CT could see several inches of accumulation I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 A mini October 2011 maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: A mini October 2011 maybe... What was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A mini October 2011 maybe... Glad we're into NOV now...wouldn't want to jinx the season with OCT snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: What was that? Rocktober... We had a small event a few days before... today's storm is providing that up north. Then many of us got destroyed, nice cold air to work with before. I don't see anything even half that potent but sort of reminds me of the run-up... No way will I get 22" of powder, or even half, or a third of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not worried about low level cold at all unless you are right on immediate coastline...my worry is the midlevels do try and erode pretty quickly. We're blasting this at like a 543 thickness. But.....a caveat is the high is in a good spot to resist the WAA and if we have big omega, the that helps too...a combo of the two often produces models getting too aggressive with the midlevel warmth so we'll have to see if it ticks colder in the final 48 hours here. Does that lean towards and icing/IP problem say S ORH hills/Union north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not worried about low level cold at all unless you are right on immediate coastline...my worry is the midlevels do try and erode pretty quickly. We're blasting this at like a 543 thickness. But.....a caveat is the high is in a good spot to resist the WAA and if we have big omega, the that helps too...a combo of the two often produces models getting too aggressive with the midlevel warmth so we'll have to see if it ticks colder in the final 48 hours here. I like my spot for this...essentially a SWFE...we may see more of these in December with a meager PNA early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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