NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 UKIE looks like a slam dunk again, waiting for someone smarter or a snow map to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The fv3 snow map on tropical tidbit is a disgrace. 12 + haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 00z UKMET, an improvement over 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ji said: The fv3 snow map on tropical tidbit is a disgrace. 12 + haha Just wait until we get a real snowstorm of 12 inches or more forecasted by the models... FV3 will be akin to the DGEX lol Sorry @dtk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 EURO is a hair faster at 0z, good change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Snowing in DCA at 60. Freezing line out past FFX county down to CHO & west, as well as N and Central MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 EURO ups the ante. Ripping just north of DCA at 72, DC probably just flipped to rain... 4-5” via 10:1 map, I’ll post the kuchera at the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Damn, DC (Fredericksburg N) mixes and probably flips back to snow at the end with the deform band... *cries in Charlottesville* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 So gonna post the 10:1 map and the Kuchera because they both have uses... part of the difference between them is going to be the amount of FRZA/sleet so I feel like it’s fair to show both. Either way, WOW. Not happy to not be in NOVA. not staying up for the EPS unless I can’t fall asleep, someone else can take the wheel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 EPS continues to up the ante. These are at 10:1 so all frozen is included but still... Mean And not to be outdone the Control run. Only see 7 members that don't at least get the 2" line into DC. Most members are very good hits for this early in the year especially in the NW burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looking over the Euro/EPS I am teetering on the edge of jumping all in on this storm. We have once again seen improvements on the 500s as to where the closed low has sped up and is now making a pass through central/northern VA and a capture of the surface low off of Jersey. IFFFFF we can pick up a 2/3 hour quicker interaction between these 2 features (500 low + surface low) as to where we are seeing the capture at our latitude (or even better just south of our latitude) I think we would be talking bona fide snowstorm for N/W of the cities and quite possibly into the cities themselves. And this isn't putting down where we stand now because we are looking pretty good as it is. Just think that 2/3 hours is the difference between a lot of ice vs. a lot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 The latest GFS is upping its game especially N/W of the cities. Kuchera Now some may ask why I bother posting the 10:1 when the Kuchera is available. I do it because when there is a decent discrepancy between the two it is indicative of a very marginal setup with temps for a storm. So if we see a slightly colder solution verify then there is a decent chance that the 10:1 is going to be more reflective of the reality. So just look at the 10:1 as the best case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Good overnight trends. Hope we get another tick or two south with the ULL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...the ull pass improves each run on the Euro . Both with speed and location. The trend has been clear . We could easily make up that 2/3 with 54+ hours till start. Was looking over the various layers from the surface up. As it stands now this will be a nightmare to forecast. It is so marginal throughout with temps that a 1-2 degree colder/warmer solution will mean a world of difference. As it stands now various levels lose the temps at various times and then they regain then as the cold air from the upper low filters in. One thing that is a positive is that the CAD is holding stronger which was expected as the models tend to underplay that feature until we get closer in. The big question mark here will be how quickly the cold can move in overhead from the west to give us a fresh source of cold as the CAD retreats. Right now per the Euro I would guess this would be a mostly sleet/freezing rain storm for just NW of the cities if not into them (maybe a couple inches/three inches of snow initially if the precip moves in quick enough) . Only when you get into Carroll/N Baltimore county would I think they could possibly see some fairly significant accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Sooo I guess I should prepare myself for some snow Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, mappy said: Sooo I guess I should prepare myself for some snow Thursday Yes that would be best. I am preparing for you to get some snow Thursday. I bought a box of Kleenex to mop my tears 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I’m skeptical, if for no other reason than the fact that this is so early in the season and climo isn’t exactly on our side. Both the October storm and Nov 2014 were under performers in the nearby burbs, but honestly at this point seeing any flakes at all is a big win. I’m still not so secretly hoping the UKMET scores a coup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I think I know now after 2 winters of living here not to get my hopes up, lol. Maybe this will be the year I actually experience a real winter? Looks like my area up in Germantown has a decent shot at this one. I have yet to get a 6” event and that’s what weather underground is calling for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Bristow unlike most storms, as we get closer to game time, the prospects for us have been marginally improving. We just need to keep that improvement going for a few more model runs. Can anyone explain what is causing the EURO to show a more southerly pass thru the mid Atlantic with the ill? And would anyone hazard a guess as to if we will see that trend continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This IS early but not exactly typical IMO. It has been pretty cold leading up to this. If it does start as snow, and as early in the day as it is, I could see this being able to lay down accumulating snow right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I highly doubt 6”, but for November getting on the board is a huge coup around the cities. Don’t worry. This winter is going to rock, and I mean that with all seriousness. It has that feel, that's for sure, doesn't it. Having an active storm track up the coast certainly helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 we all know ground temps in Nov are like summer asphalt so lets just simmer down on snow total maps and i'll see myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: we all know ground temps in Nov are like summer asphalt so lets just simmer down on snow total maps and i'll see myself out There is always one in the crowd. Warm ground.... Snow can't accumulate... Blah, Blah, Blah.... Come on H2O, embrace the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I think I know now after 2 winters of living here not to get my hopes up, lol. Maybe this will be the year I actually experience a real winter? Looks like my area up in Germantown has a decent shot at this one. I have yet to get a 6” event and that’s what weather underground is calling for. Don’t expect 6” this early in the season because it’ll just leave you disappointed. Even seeing flakes this early is anomalous. Our time will come this year - I think everyone is on board with that - so just be patient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I highly doubt 6”, but for November getting on the board is a huge coup around the cities. Don’t worry. This winter is going to rock, and I mean that with all seriousness. I’m not gonna lie, this November reminds me of November 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 For those wanting snow, you have to like the trend direction...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: There is always one in the crowd. Warm ground.... Snow can't accumulate... Blah, Blah, Blah.... Come on H2O, embrace the snow. Oh it will snow somewhere. Snow maps are pretty but climo is a witch. Nice trends and get the bowling ball a tad more south and a bit more confluence/congestion in the ATL and this would scream Nov early storm for all. But I'm not ready to take the plunge just yet. Most pools are drained this time of year anyways. The one caveat is that the Caps won the Cup this year so this could be the year of DC. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: The latest GFS is upping its game especially N/W of the cities. Kuchera Now some may ask why I bother posting the 10:1 when the Kuchera is available. I do it because when there is a decent discrepancy between the two it is indicative of a very marginal setup with temps for a storm. So if we see a slightly colder solution verify then there is a decent chance that the 10:1 is going to be more reflective of the reality. So just look at the 10:1 as the best case scenario. Not in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Did you need a whole post to say that? Most people are aware it doesn't actually snow in or near DC, regardless of month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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