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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

Well, I mean what's wrong with mentioning annular hurricanes? This is a weather forum. People here like weather that is cool. Hurricanes look cool. ANNULAR hurricanes look even cooler. xD 

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20 minutes ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




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I can't blame them for getting excited, I have seen annular storms do a lot of goofy stuff over the years.  I remember some stupid EPAC storm going over cool water with low shear and the NHC write-up specifically mentioned the chance of an annular transition.  And then I wake up and the storm has gained 30 MPH and looks like an angry donut on IR.  I want to say this was an early 2010s storm.  Maybe the same year as Hurricane Hilary.

But also Hilary was the name of a hot blonde girl I dated in HS.  She was super annular.  So I'm probably confusing these things. 

Also I have been drinking a lot.

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We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.
I think it took me 5 minutes of "catch-up" reading just from this evening to get to at least 5!

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Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

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9 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

Far too early to declare this with such a complex forecast.

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15 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this and even then I would be far from certain.

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3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this.

It was moved here from the Storm Mode thread, lol.

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14 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

If you're not a meteo then don't speak with this kind of authoritative tone. Seems like a garbage post to me.

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3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this.

It was in the main thread... I moved it here.  

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Beautiful

GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

That Yucatan trashgyre looks like it wants to do something even though the convection is way off the center.  Causing more storms over FL than near the apparent center.

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All eyes will be on Florence through the end of the week but Isaac deserves some attention even barring an unexpected surge in intensity.  There's nothing but warm water in front of it and any relaxation in the forecasted shear could seriously increase its potential strength, plus, it's basically on the on-ramp to the GOM after day 5.

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8 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run...  

Florence refuses to land in North Carolina!.gif

Maybe it's having a shot of rum or tequila after every mention of "annular" here.

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11 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run...  The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs.

Florence refuses to land in North Carolina!.gif

An emergency manager's delight 

/sarcasm

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My family has had a little cabin across from the ocean down at Holden Beach since 1975. It’s incredibly saddening to have to accept that it could be wiped off of the map in a couple of days

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It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run...  The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs.
159074031_FlorencerefusestolandinNorthCarolina!.thumb.gif.1f41aa40296b48fb5449a9b3ae5ada14.gif


When you spit out your coffee after simultaneously seeing the GFS loop and hearing TWC JC mention it as a possible solution.

Be safe SE and MA folks!


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Normally don't join in on Tropical Discussions but wanted to wish everyone in the path of this monster to stay safe. We have family that live on the shore of Oak Island, NC just south of Wilmington and not looking very good for them right now. They are planning on evacuating by tomorrow morning at the latest. 

Also it appears that the EWRC is almost completed for Florence on the last few frames of the IR.

 

 

 

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What is causing the front / line of clouds that has formed to the west of Florence?  I am curious as it is moving in a north westerly direction: 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

With Disturbance 1 pushing north, and a continuing easterly flow coming off of Florida, it seems to me that Florence would follow the front/cloud line I'm asking about.

EDIT:  had the air flow off Florida moving the wrong direction.  Corrected.

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2 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

Was not sure were to ask this? I am in Evans, Ga. and preparing. Wondering if I should prepare more.. What do you guys think

lets keep these type of questions here in banter. 

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1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

It's a shame the GFS is so inferior to the ECMWF these days. :(

That really doesn't seem to be the case at all, in the longer time frames: 

image.png

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1 minute ago, Buddy said:

That really doesn't seem to be the case at all, in the longer time frames: 

image.png

I think that poster is probably focusing on the timeframe around landfall... whether the eye would scrape the coast/stay offshore or move inland. That is the aspect where the GFS appears to be headed toward being late to the party.  

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2018-09-11_124835.JPG

Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before.  What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center?

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I think that poster is probably focusing on the timeframe around landfall... whether the eye would scrape the coast/stay offshore or move inland. That is the aspect where the GFS appears to be headed toward being late to the party.  

Probably. Just pointing out that the GFS has actually been one of the higher performing models IRT this storm, and we're a good way out now.  We've seen this movie a few times haven't we? ;-)

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