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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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I have family in Raleigh and not totally out of the woods here.  I want no part of a hurricane and am not happy at all about the current track.  Given how grim some models are I will post the NHC key message on uncertainty and still hope for the best but of course folks need to be prepared for the worst:

 

The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.
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WTNT41 KNHC 081453
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within
the past 6 hours or so.  Vertical shear has decreased just enough
for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection
developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated
band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation.
The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to
the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining
an initial intensity of 55 kt for now.  A NOAA P-3 aircraft is
approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide
some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity.

Recent WindSat microwave data revealed that Florence has a
well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, which tends to
be a harbinger of strengthening when environmental conditions are
favorable.  Since vertical shear is decreasing and should be 10 kt
or less by later today, and Florence is heading toward a deeper
pool of warm water over the southwestern Atlantic, a significant
phase of intensification is likely to begin by tonight, continuing
through Tuesday or Wednesday.  In fact, the official intensity
forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification occurring between
24 and 48 hours from now, and Florence is expected to become a
major hurricane by Monday.  The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and
the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), both of which tend to do
well in these scenarios, are both near the upper end of the guidance
suite, especially through day 3.  Even by days 4 and 5, the HWRF,
HMON, and ICON intensity consensus are near the top end of the
guidance, close to HCCA and FSSE.  Given the signals in the
environment, and the solutions provided by these models, the NHC
intensity forecast shows Florence reaching category 4 intensity by
day 3 and maintains that through the end of the forecast period.

Florence's longer-term motion is 265/6 kt.  The cyclone appears to
be slowing down as was expected, and this type of motion is likely
to continue for the next 24-36 hours.  In fact, the track guidance
has slowed down during this period, and the updated NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one.  After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS.  However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids.  The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5.  The exact path of Florence as it
approaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on
the position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is
expected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the
eastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on
those important details.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect
portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 24.5N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 24.6N  56.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 24.8N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.1N  59.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 26.3N  64.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 31.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

$$

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54 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

I'll try too answer this..

I purchased, a B & S "storm responder" from Sears.. 5K~6K watts.. Runs 11 hours on 5 gallons of gas.. (depending on the Load Cycle).. It is enough, I "TESTED" Loading on my home.. I was enough to power My computer/freezer/fridge/TV/ AND My AC/Heat pump.. (Barely all @ once)..

I also had a Generac 6000 that could do same amount of "load" , but less hours run time..

Hooking one up...

YOU CAN USE THE 120/240 "LINE OUTLET" TO Reverse plug per'se, into your DRYER outlet... making it a "inlet" into your home powering it.

DOING SO MAKE SURE YOU TRIP YOUR MAIN BREAKER TO THE GRID!!!!!!!  aS "YOUR POWER" will go to the nearest transformer turning your measly power into 7K +/- volts possibly causing death too line workers thinking those power lines were not "energized"...

My house is "wired" for a Gen-set already.. All I have to do is trip My breaker & I'm set.. Generator runs in the detached garage..

Of course FOLLOW SAFTEY GUIDELINES, in other words Carbon monoxide poisoning..

Smaller portable generators (1000K ~ 3000K watts) are enough to power your fridge/freezer and maybe light & TV/Radio.. Though the extension cord outlets, (don't forget to buy those, AND long enough to have the generator OUTSIDE.. ) 

 

Edit too add, (about the transfer Switch on breaker panel),, I just cut the Main breaker..

I carry about 20 gallons of fuel, because I'm right on the main grid..

Generators are great to have in winter, In case of Ice Storms also..

Be sure (If you buy one) buy your gas cans NOW, you'll have mucho trouble finding some..

Plus I got a Boat tank that hold 30 gallons if I've got to use that too..

 

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3 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

After 36 hours, the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in the 06Z GFS.  However, that run appears to be an outlier from the rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids.

That speaks a lot right there...

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50 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

How significant is the process of hooking things up to a generator? If you're ordering one off Amazon, is it a portable one?

And how much gas do you need to have on hand to last at least a week running a refrigerator, some lights, maybe a fan, and since they don't use much power these days, a TV?

I'm assuming I'm out of luck if I want to hook up a generator I got from Amazon to power a heat pump and air handler.

 

Edit: Sorry if this is too off-topic for this thread.

 

Just to clarify. It would be off-topic in a storm thread normally. However, we are a long way from an ongoing event and the information is useful for preparation so it is fine.   Just don't ask about your generator as the eyewall is slamming into Charleston.   :)

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24 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I have family in Raleigh and not totally out of the woods here.  I want no part of a hurricane and am not happy at all about the current track.  Given how grim some models are I will post the NHC key message on uncertainty and still hope for the best but of course folks need to be prepared for the worst:

 

The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.

As someone in the Charlotte area, some of the comparisons and talk about Hugo from this board and the other board has me terrified in all honesty. 

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What a “doomsday” scenario shaping up for the SE coast.  Seriously starting to get chills.  This storm behaved exactly as needed to get into striking position.  The massive weakening Florence experienced is a huge reason she’s back with a vengeance so far south. 

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Another thing to keep in mind... with the incoming/stalling front dropping down from VA, there's a 30%-50% chance of showers/storms all week leading up to the potential landfall. Ground might be at least wet, possibly saturated before any effects of Florence show up.

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Recon found 991mb. Levi Cowan is a great follow as well for those of you in the path that are on Twitter. Certainly looks like it’s shaping up to be a serious situation. 

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Generator Talk. I've had  a 5,000 since year 2,000. I would reccomend you guys just go the extension cord route for fridge TV lamp and fans. Leave your hvac off and if you use your stove ,you'll be pulling all she has with one burner,let alone 2. So meal prep with the grills is best plan imo. Also if your on well water, it will run your pumps fine, but if you need to heat the water heater up for the kids and wifey. Just only run your water heater breaker for 30 mins and that will warm the tank water up for a hot quickie. Just get everything else appliance wise off while heating tank and runing water pump. And always have generator outside away from house, fumes co2 etc. If you have city water,then stay or use the extension cord route and it will alleviate alot of the discomfort of being off grid with the fridge,TV and several fans along with runing water.

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19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Generator Talk. [snip]

Good advice. This is what I do with my Honda EU3000is. I can plug it directly into my box, but there’s no point with 3,000 watts. I’m not running the entire house. I use heavy duty extension cords to power the basics like refrigerator, freezer, fan, phone charging, microwave, radio, etc. When buying, look for an internal inverter.

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2 hours ago, gtg947h said:

A portable generator will run stuff off of extension cords, unless you've made the appropriate changes to tie it into your house wiring (see below). 

...

I couldn't tell you how much gas you'd need.  You'll need to look up the fuel consumption for your specific generator, and to be conservative assume full power output.  Rectal-extraction figure says a little north of 100 gallons.

I'm pretty sure I don't want any piece of equipment that involves a rectal extraction.  I'll just endure being without power, if that's the alternative.  :P

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11 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I'm pretty sure I don't want any piece of equipment that involves a rectal extraction.  I'll just endure being without power, if that's the alternative.  :P

Well, it beats a rectal insertion factor but not by much.

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2 hours ago, jburns said:

Just to clarify. It would be off-topic in a storm thread normally. However, we are a long way from an ongoing event and the information is useful for preparation so it is fine.   Just don't ask about your generator as the eyewall is slamming into Charleston.   :)

Or Myrtle! 

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Thanks for the replies, everyone. With the exception of installing some light switches, my AC experience ends between the power-entry-module and the DC power supply. I know enough to not try to get in over my head. I like the idea of having my fridge, TV, and a few fans, but I can get by without it for a while. One of the biggest hassles to me seems to be keeping enough gas on hand to keep it running. The eldest can drink water instead of milk, and the youngest is on formula. I'm more worried about our community well keeping up, and I've stocked up on a lot of drinking water (and making plans for gray water).

Cooking will be a coleman stove or a charcoal grill. Got plenty of fuel for both.

Good luck, everyone. Praying for safety.

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