ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Agreed Kev, looking like a positive atmosphere for strengthening. Feel bad for hte folks on the Norwegian cruise ling going to Maine/ Nova Scotia instead of Bermuda. Not even going to come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Early thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/peak-of-hurricane-season-2018-may-be.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/peak-of-hurricane-season-2018-may-be.html Hi Ray! Nice blog post. Recognize how much time and effort goes into putting that together. The only thing I'd add to the blog is that another extremely important prerequisite to intensification being the lack of dry air...need a very warm and moist ambient environment. You covered the other three of the four, very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 44 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Hi Ray! Nice blog post. Recognize how much time and effort goes into putting that together. The only thing I'd add to the blog is that another extremely important prerequisite to intensification being the lack of dry air...need a very warm and moist ambient environment. You covered the other three of the four, very well. Ah...yes. Forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/peak-of-hurricane-season-2018-may-be.html "Climo hole" . Well written, Ray. Great read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Starting to get that feel of foreboding doom. Piqued interest simply because ensemble members are ticking further S and W. Where or (if) is landfall. Safe to state threat level increasing with each passing hour and model run. After Irma I purchased a Generac 22kW beauty, propane driven. Very disappointed with the install process, it sits still needing electrical work. Health issues over the past year has had me in/out of the hospital so I take 80% blame for delay. Received a letter from CFPE (Electric contractor for Lowe's and Generac) soon as I read the letter I'm on the horn trying to explain the events and situation. The worst customer service woman I've ever encountered. She had already decided to cancel the companies involvement. I could not get a word in so I called Lowe's back to try to get straightened-out since I hung-up yelling at the Rep. Permit was only god for six months so had to start the process in mid-install. Sept 30 is now the appointed date for CFPE to complete install. Why do I have the feeling this is far from being installed. Thinking I need a good local electrician to finally put to rest. What up with that Outer Banks loopy-loop? Strong block and becoming stronger! All will change, fun to watch evolve with great interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Starting to get that feel of foreboding doom. Piqued interest simply because ensemble members are ticking further S and W. Where or (if) is landfall. Safe to state threat level increasing with each passing hour and model run. After Irma I purchased a Generac 22kW beauty, propane driven. Very disappointed with the install process, it sits still needing electrical work. Health issues over the past year has had me in/out of the hospital so I take 80% blame for delay. Received a letter from CFPE (Electric contractor for Lowe's and Generac) soon as I read the letter I'm on the horn trying to explain the events and situation. The worst customer service woman I've ever encountered. She had already decided to cancel the companies involvement. I could not get a word in so I called Lowe's back to try to get straightened-out since I hung-up yelling at the Rep. Permit was only god for six months so had to start the process in mid-install. Sept 30 is now the appointed date for CFPE to complete install. Why do I have the feeling this is far from being installed. Thinking I need a good local electrician to finally put to rest. What up with that Outer Banks loopy-loop? Strong block and becoming stronger! All will change, fun to watch evolve with great interest. Try calling the Lowe's corporate office. Explain the situation and your health condition to the person you speak with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 GA/SC threat increasing. gfs otl with track and intensity, as usual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: GA/SC threat increasing. gfs otl with track and intensity, as usual. Hatteras more likely then ride the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hatteras more likely then ride the coast Everything’s been trending south, ridge is beastly. gfs and gefs tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, ROOSTA said: What up with that Outer Banks loopy-loop? Strong block and becoming stronger! All will change, fun to watch evolve with great interest. That GFS depiction would be the ultimate tease and denial for the weenies rooting on a major making landfall. Looks a little suspicious so give it another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: GA/SC threat increasing. gfs otl with track and intensity, as usual. Coming in at an angle you don't often see too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Hatteras more likely then ride the coast I think it bombs out over Brooklyn, then makes a B line for line for queens. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Coming in at an angle you don't often see too. Like Ray has in his blog, the GA coast is a climo hole. Hard to get a storm to thread a needle like that. I’m thinking 50% ish chance of a Carolinas hit, 45% OTS, 5% other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Wilmington is only 737 miles from here.. Chase? Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Wilmington is only 737 miles from here.. Chase? Hmmm This doesn’t look that anomolous. Cat2/3 LF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Having a hard time believing the past two GFS runs although I wish it wasn't that way. Wasn't it the very last to shows the more westerly track on Irma when all the other guidance was pretty locked on? Looks like the 12Z Euro and FV3 are both going to show landfalls around the SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Wilmington is only 737 miles from here.. Chase? Hmmm No need to chase with it trending to my back-yard. Tic-tic-tic with each run S and W. (not cool whatsoever) Hoping for intensification to get Flo to go poleward and thinking Outer Banks to the N extent down to GA/SC border to the S. Just to far out to predict exact track, heck could be inside 24h and still left with a best guess scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: No need to chase with it trending to my back-yard. Tic-tic-tic with each run S and W. (not cool whatsoever) Hoping for intensification to get Flo to go poleward and thinking Outer Banks to the N extent down to GA/SC border to the S. Just to far out to predict exact track, heck could be inside 24h and still left with a best guess scenario. Most guidance has trended slightly north today. FV3-GFS run might be the craziest model run I've ever seen. Hit's around Wilmington around Cat3/4 intensity, stalls, loops out back over the water, restrengthens again just to slam right back into the Wilmington area. Regardless CMC and Euro still show hits but slightly north of previous runs I can't see it making a run at FL at this point. Edit: I say that and HWRF has it sitting right off of FL at end of the run. Prob not best to use it for track however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 The general theme is vastly more important than the end position for model runs beyond D4 in the tropics... To that end, nothing's really changed in the last two and half days worth of runs - spend your time engaging as you will... The tropical Atlantic is ablaze though. Currently, the region is going for the 'cycle,' borrowing a baseball term. In baseball, it's when one hits a single, double, triple, and home run in the same game. Here, we have an Invest, TD, TS, and plausible hurricane sometime tonight. heh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I wonder if the landfall stall for days will turn this into a smaller SE version of Harvey. Euro spits out 12-24” over NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I wonder if the landfall stall for days will turn this into a smaller SE version of Harvey. Euro spits out 12-24” over NC and VA. Lets sure hope not. The Euro 12Z ensembles were pretty eye opening. More tightly clustered and less recurves. I'm waiting for tonights 0z runs and tomorrows 12z which should get some extra data into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 This is still the same from I created the thread. Hatteras, hugs coast, skirts South of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: This is still the same from I created the thread. Hatteras, hugs coast, skirts South of NE. Nothing has changed, south of Hatteras LF....so you will be shocked. But lets hope for the SE though it doesnt stall for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing has changed, south of Hatteras LF....so you will be shocked. But lets hope for the SE though it doesnt stall for too long. Wink wink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: This is still the same from I created the thread. Hatteras, hugs coast, skirts South of NE. We aren’t seeing anything. Other than swells. Move on man . It’s a OBX LF .. then hard right OTS. It’s kind of easy now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 18z GFS is fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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