August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

NE has it all, weather wise, without the need to fear for your life (except the occassional cape cod mega blizzard). 

[Sugarloaf1989]

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Rain free week cancel?

Nah, it's still rain in Western areas.

[CoastalWx]

We dew and we warm. Also, there was a lot of speculation that the wpac storm was causing issues with the pattern roughly a week ago. I sort of disagree. When you look back to see what happened, there were huge changes in Siberia and up west of Greenland with little change in the pattern just downstream of the wpac storm. So maybe it had some effect, but blaming that storm is too simple of a reason imo. That was when guidance had a pretty deep trough moving in, only to relax substantially.

[Lava Rock]

I thought it was supposed to be cloudy, dewy and t-showers all day? Lots of blue sky atm and not that bad out.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, dendrite said:

At least there was excellent sleighing on 4/11/1868.

That chart of first 1" of snow is gold though.

Time to petition 1/24/1857 for a tie of the record low of -37F.

The weenie obs are fun to read. Lots of earthquakes apparently.

I've read that NYC had a day around that time in which the temp never got above zero.  (My NYC numbers go back only thru 1869.)  What was CON's max that day?

NE has it all, weather wise, without the need to fear for your life (except the occassional cape cod mega blizzard). 

Agree.  I like a place with little hurricanes, little tornados, little earthquakes, and big snowstorms.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I've read that NYC had a day around that time in which the temp never got above zero.  (My NYC numbers go back only thru 1869.)  What was CON's max that day?

NE has it all, weather wise, without the need to fear for your life (except the occassional cape cod mega blizzard). 

Agree.  I like a place with little hurricanes, little tornados, little earthquakes, and big snowstorms.

Nailed it!

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I've read that NYC had a day around that time in which the temp never got above zero.  (My NYC numbers go back only thru 1869.)  What was CON's max that day?

NE has it all, weather wise, without the need to fear for your life (except the occassional cape cod mega blizzard). 

Agree.  I like a place with little hurricanes, little tornados, little earthquakes, and big snowstorms.

You might be thinking of Jan 10th 1859. I would have to do more research in Early American Winters vol 1 +2 to find out if there are any other references to NYC remaining below zero.

[tamarack]

28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You might be thinking of Jan 10th 1859. I would have to do more research in Early American Winters vol 1 +2 to find out if there are any other references to NYC remaining below zero.

That could be it - I only recall "late 1850s."

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yesterday was the 43rd anniversary of Hot Saturday.  I hope everyone observed it appropriately. 

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yesterday was the 43rd anniversary of Hot Saturday.  I hope everyone observed it appropriately. 

Vivid memories of that day.

[Great Snow 1717]

42 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That could be it - I only recall "late 1850s."

Another possibility for a below 0 day at NYC is 2/21/1773. In Vol 2 there is a brief passage that reads"it is supposed was the coldest day in this port of the world for a half century"

[tamarack]

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Vivid memories of that day.

Same.  We spent part of the morning picking blueberries.  My sister-in-law, who's Hawaiian and grew up working in pineapple fields there, was fine.  I wasn't, but was too stubborn to stop, while all others hid in the shade.  Enough sugar and we could've made jam right in the field.  Then we traveled to Acadia (BHB 101) and cooled off in the cove just south of Otter Cliffs, the one and only time I've swum in Maine salt water that felt warm.  BGR touched 102 that day, also hottest on record there, and was forecast for another +/-100 on Sunday.  We woke to 70 with sprinkles and it never topped 72 (high was 78, @ 12:01 AM), the most welcome BD of my lifetime.

Another possibility for a below 0 day at NYC is 2/21/1773. In Vol 2 there is a brief passage that reads"it is supposed was the coldest day in this port of the world for a half century"

Would not surprise, as that was apparently an even colder period than the mid-19th century.  However, while my hope of verifiable records for the 1850s isn't all that high, for the 1770s it's barely distinguishable from zero. 

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

I thought it was supposed to be cloudy, dewy and t-showers all day? Lots of blue sky atm and not that bad out.

Lets revist around 22z

[Typhoon Tip]

Some of the deepest richest purest emerald blue skies I've seen in recent memory here in SNE ...  at 76 F DP!

that is Bahama blue baby - ... and the crispy TCU adds to the mystique spot on

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Same.  We spent part of the morning picking blueberries.  My sister-in-law, who's Hawaiian and grew up working in pineapple fields there, was fine.  I wasn't, but was too stubborn to stop, while all others hid in the shade.  Enough sugar and we could've made jam right in the field.  Then we traveled to Acadia (BHB 101) and cooled off in the cove just south of Otter Cliffs, the one and only time I've swum in Maine salt water that felt warm.  BGR touched 102 that day, also hottest on record there, and was forecast for another +/-100 on Sunday.  We woke to 70 with sprinkles and it never topped 72 (high was 78, @ 12:01 AM), the most welcome BD of my lifetime.

 

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Same.  We spent part of the morning picking blueberries.  My sister-in-law, who's Hawaiian and grew up working in pineapple fields there, was fine.  I wasn't, but was too stubborn to stop, while all others hid in the shade.  Enough sugar and we could've made jam right in the field.  Then we traveled to Acadia (BHB 101) and cooled off in the cove just south of Otter Cliffs, the one and only time I've swum in Maine salt water that felt warm.  BGR touched 102 that day, also hottest on record there, and was forecast for another +/-100 on Sunday.  We woke to 70 with sprinkles and it never topped 72 (high was 78, @ 12:01 AM), the most welcome BD of my lifetime.

I recall that day as it being the only day that weren't any pickup baseball or basketball games going on. And I recall everyone just sitting outside on their porches until late into the evening. The next day was a complete surprise! And it felt so refreshing. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS machine numbers trying to pop the lid off the pressure cooker early next week... Has a 4-day heat wave ... three of which are big heat+ (95F or more I think we decided ..? ) 

But KFIT and KASH are 95 to 98 for three days! 

Monday -Wednesday...  sorry ..Sunday - Tuesday

It's been gathering "steam" in this particular model... The last three cycles have been showing the correction of the erstwhile "too fast" retrograde it had before, by passing the WAR remnant slower by underneath.  I just wonder if it's 850 thermal layout is gotten too warm..  we'll see. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, it has a two day parcel ejection that I'd estimate to be in the upper + 3 to lower +4 SD ... passing through southern Canada 200 thru 260 or so hours... 

For us it looks pedestrian, but the overall pattern/construct is the take away for me.  I also recall that sort of modeled behavior led the early July heat wave when it too was some week to ten days in the runs.  

The period post the heat wave - which may or may not be more important than previously thought or aware for this next Sunday through Tuesday of next week ... - was in question. The troughiness over southern SE Canada was a bit dubiously too deep amid guidance. They've corrected... that but there is some question as to whether that goes directly into another bigger heat signal for mid month..  

So in total (for now..) it appears two heat waves in contention.  The one in the nearer term mentioned above...then we lull ... and maybe roll it back in ... 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... it even sounds hot outside.   You can hear the Cicada saws cutting the air right through the windows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... it even sounds hot outside.   You can hear the Cicada saws cutting the air right through the windows.

Yeah...I noticed the cicadas buzzing for the first time yesterday.  Right on schedule

[Ginx snewx]

Today was a pretty awesome day here. Night has been great too. Beers and deck pit. Summer rolls on for the foreeeable future. 

[dendrite]

lol at the end of that euro run. 23C 850s at James Bay d9 and 0C 24hrs  later.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

lol at the end of that euro run. 23C 850s at James Bay d9 and 0C 24hrs  later.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So swampy alligators have been seen swimming up the Hudson. Niet stepdown in sight.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

lol at the end of that euro run. 23C 850s at James Bay d9 and 0C 24hrs  later.

I mentioned this yesterday re the GFS operational run...

which did precisely the same antic in that time range.   It fails 'interesting' as a label, do to the fact that it is day 10 ... however, I do feel there is a signal in place for an important heat wave after this nearer term one (tomorrow through Wednesday) suffers a pattern lull... It appears subtle changes in the Pacific relay into western N/A may try to lower heights around 110 W and that subtends - obviously...

[weathafella]

Ms WAR-Sonora is ruling August increasingly as we move forward.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ms WAR-Sonora is ruling August increasingly as we move forward.

And I think into the fall as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And I think into the fall as well.

I disagree ... not with 'you' per se, but the idea.

I could be persuaded to change my thinking but I still believe that the latter half of August (though if it kicked in around the 20th that's acceptable) will slip into an oscillatory pattern. I referred to it as a 'one up one down' verification tendency but that just means more like normal.  

The reasoning is that climatology tends to start weakening the subtropical ridge strengths over this next two weeks...  Meanwhile, the last several years worth of summers have all done the same thing in late August... imposed more trough into SE Canada. So I suppose the argument centers around (climate+ recent intra-decadal tendency)/2 = 'I'm not sure we sustain exuberant heights and heat waves for the whole month'

If anyone has any countering idea... by all means -

[Typhoon Tip]

But... in the nearer term...  Big heat still flagged for Monday and Tuesday...  mid way through a heat wave that probably begins tomorrow.

12z/shorter termed NAM runs starting to come around to taller numbers.  Machine guidance at FIT and ASH are now 95 and 96 for Monday, in a product that is routinely a tick or two cool.  Meanwhile, the GFS put up 97 and 98 at those locations... Both have mid 90s for Logan Monday and Tuesday.

This is different as today's antics are heralding in a bit of a frontalysis passage...but enough vestigial air mass change to whisk the Bahama DPs out.  We settle back to 63 to 66 ...which ironically enough, those are still rich.  But, as we know, 95/64 is a different annoyance compared to 95/74...  We've sort of acclimated to HI that are lofty ... so, this bought of big heat (95+) should it verify, may be open to ridicule by the usual suspects... but will be an achievement nonetheless. 

The Euro has 19 to 20 C 850 for those two days as well...

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I disagree ... not with 'you' per se, but the idea.

I could be persuaded to change my thinking but I still believe that the latter half of August (though if it kicked in around the 20th that's acceptable) will slip into an oscillatory pattern. I referred to it as a 'one up one down' verification tendency but that just means more like normal.  

The reasoning is that climatology tends to start weakening the subtropical ridge strengths over this next two weeks...  Meanwhile, the last several years worth of summers have all done the same thing in late August... imposed more trough into SE Canada. So I suppose the argument centers around (climate+ recent intra-decadal tendency)/2 = 'I'm not sure we sustain exuberant heights and heat waves for the whole month'

If anyone has any countering idea... by all means -

I'm hoping, well praying that you are correct. Everyone I know is complaining about the heat and humidity. With that said there has been a recent trend for warm falls so I'm basing my prediction on that trend continuing.