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Typhoon Tip

August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

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Just going by the weak correlation reliance of the teleconnections that is endemic to summer time ... along with the tenor of the various models, along with the trends of the season... All told, I think we split this month about in half if I were pistol to head forced to gamble. 

Relative to normal:  Thinking solidly above the first 10 to 15 days...then oscillatory pattern the 2nd half. I think we may see a SE Canadia trough that;s an over-achiever in that 2nd half.  We have been getting early autumn SE Canadian/NE U.S. trough inserts in late summers for the past several years... and I do wrestle with the notion whether that's part of this new climate norm we are seeing peer reviewed sciences about. 

 

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8 of the next ten days have measurable precip in my hood on the Euro just like the last bout of muggy weather. The 12 hours of tropical blues in 10 days is always worth it though.

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I wouldn't trust the Euro 12z run, Steve... the previous 00Z run for that matter.  In fact, I would take them all with more than normal caution for anything beyond D4 -ish.

The problem is ...they've all been showing marked inconsistency with the handling of the circulation from southenr Manitoba to the MA and points NE and E over the OV and eastern Canada.  They can't seem to decide, particularly for the 40th parallel, whether to go with more riding and/or plausible continental charged heat into the ORD-BOS corridor... or, to dig trough with substantial enough incursion to really do just about the opposite temperature departures compared to the former.  Right now ...NCEP's siding with the warmer look... mm

It 'looks' like the handling across the eastern Pac and how that relays into N/A is the issue - heh, almost a winter problem... But, it's being handled with poor run to run continuity.  When there's stronger trough digging as an outside slider along the west coast, ... it "pinches" the western ridge into higher latitude curvature over the Rockies ... and that shortens the long-wave, wave-length and we consequentially end up screwing a hole in the troposphere back east.  When there's less...we end up with a run more like the 00z version ...which lowers heights less obstrusively and that helps keep the lengths longer and then we end up with a broader trough near 110 W and that subtends the hot/ridgy/WAR-line ridge back east.

All the models are flip flopping on this..

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Well... we just watched the Euro abruptly morph from a torrid heat wave along with a 500 mb pattern supporting...  to an autumn troughy hemisphere, across just two runs ... And, was in the day 5 range.  So, the Euro may or may not boast those skill-scores leading...  how this product balances/atones for such a huge mass-field abrupt break-down might be worth monitoring. 

One wonders if such a product might update with another downward score movement when this particular era gets added in...  time will tell. 

The other thing is that D-5 is one day?  The relevancy in my mind is challenged when these "patterns" are usually at a minimum three day ordeals... that 'one day out of 10' aspect is available to a time-dependent analysis. 

In any case, I've been watching this period... from late this week to the end of next week, closely.  The Euro was pretty persistently showing big heat potential... with the GFS actually mottled with runs that showed less... The unsung hero - it's done that at other times this season..  I'm suspecting that there is a kind of sinusoidal performance curve going on with these tools.  The Euro seems spasmatic at multiple scales at D10 and the GFS seems to be the first to sniff majors in that la-la range...But, we only assess these scores at D5 ... (that I'm aware), when the Euro tends to dramatically improves, and the GFS for some reason routinely drops signals. 

Be that as it may ... Now, the Euro and GGEM and all three have decided to not only remove the bigger heat signal...they actually 'rub it in' by throwing a major autumn look to the pattern by mid week! 

'Holistically' ... mm, it's not that bad off climo.  I mean, we are losing sun... we are losing temperature.  Both factors cannot be denied...  and, as we've conjectured in the passed, often in August you get a kind of pre -seasonal shot across the bow...  A trough bullies into SE Can and we get side-swiped by upper 40s dew with temperatures of 78 F...  which feels spot on climo during the day, but the air mass betrays its self at night when the temps bomb to 46 F in the countryside with heavy dew.  The arrival of that sort of air mass to me is really the state of the hemisphere's decision on when the season first zygotes its change.  And, it does vary (obviously) from year to year... But, then things roll-back and it gets hot and muggy again before it's truly over - of course...Anyway, now that August is afoot, I usually start looking for that under-the-radar hint event.  

Of course... this tone might seem silly when the 12z runs flip right back to a flatter look that results in more heat transport ... but -

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Turning the corner and heading down the back stretch.

I hate it.  Much darker in the early AM.  Fall is so worthless to me...

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I hate it.  Much darker in the early AM.  Fall is so worthless to me...

As long as i'm not out deer hunting in a t-shirt i have no issues with it up here, Its probably one of my preferred seasons besides winter.

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Man,  I bet there are some places in the HRV that have had some pretty impressive rain totals the past month.   It seems like it is raining in ENY every time I look at the radar.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

August 2018

More bark than bite?

Damn ...missed my opportunity... I should have gone with 'August dawgs are barkin' but is the bite missing?'   schit - 

 

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mm the more I look at this... It's really another Bahama blue set up really ... 

It's coming in less wet .... but, that obs and sky reports and so for from about NYC S are doing the 87/77 thing with less 'baze' in the air we see with continental heat.  At least initially it is...  

 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm the more I look at this... It's really another Bahama blue set up really ... 

It's coming in less wet .... but, that obs and sky reports and so for from about NYC S are doing the 87/77 thing with less 'baze' in the air we see with continental heat.  At least initially it is...  

 

30 straight days of this 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That came outta left field -

More like short center in the old 10 person softball team....

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ho-hum,  added another .50"  of rain to the summer 2018 totals.  Good news because I was concerned for the mushrooms.

Heavy, heavy rain here. 2.22"/hr right now. I keep imagining just how many more mushrooms I would have if I wasn't in this drought.

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heavy, heavy rain here. 2.22"/hr right now. I keep imagining just how many more mushrooms I would have if I wasn't in this drought.

W MA  has been like the Olympic Peninsula the past few weeks.   I just hope that all of the anomalous precipitation totals now don't come back to haunt us in DJF.

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