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August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The charts from an op run at day 9-10

Wut?  The chart starts with today's date and goes thru day 9-10 (next Friday).  And those temps would certainly be cooler than what they are now and more seasonable. No one called fo a "big cool change" other than you in your own post.  I see the NWS forecasts for this weekend are aout 10F+ cooler than they are with today's and this past weeks temperatures.

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Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance.

You try telling that to charts, but they won’t listen 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks warm and humid to me for the next two weeks. However, if the guidance is right it will be cooler temp wise with a lot of clouds and showers into mid week next week at least. But it will stay humid. When the rain leaves the warmth returns. Don’t really see any changes yet of significance.

Mm... I suggest those looking for the "back of summer broken" may need not rush matters... 

I believe we really need to first see the extinction of these 594 geopotential height nodes that are pearled and oscillatory/pulsing in position and amplitude ...from Bermuda to the SW.  The 00z GGEM has a huge WAR signal ... on par or even greater than previous ..D 9 and 10...  Which isn't saying much for that particular guidance source, no, but post 'faux' troughing from the GL-NE over the weekend, the Euro is poised to ridge S of 40 N across the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S.... with heights over 588 -... Different model cluster, but the EPS still has 585 south of ORD-BOS pretty much everywhere.. 

Nah...that's not breaking any backs ... sorry.   

Imho, we are merely in a cool interlude in warm summer right now...  But in fairness... that back break lingo is just that ... lingo, so obviously it really has it's futility, too.

Obviously, subjective or not we'll see the tipping point ... I'm thinking nearing the 20th ... The models tend to rush these things.  If I were betting ...I'd put money down that we'll see this sort of amplitude/+PNAP structure every third or fourth cycle of a given model for the next 10 days ...then finally that takes hold but no before those 10 days demo some persistence. 

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I also don't buy the American suite closing off surface pressure S of NE over the weekend like that - ... or at least, I won't purchase without some sort of rebate or bargain or something... 

Nothing is impossible in this crazy game of weather.  It's a matter of picking and choosing a probability package ... I just suspect that given (seasonal trend + climatology regardless of season)/ 2 = a bigger anomaly getting that to happen.  Rather, both the Euro and the GGEM drape weakly closed surface pressure across central New England.  Which at least offers a nod to those to persistence metrics .. 

 

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That NAM is still doing this as of 12 z... 

Beyond 42 hours... it's veering winds into the SSE (150 deg) at Logan, and hangs their temperature at 18 C in the low to middle boundary layer all daylight long. 

A, in August...ooh k... a bit unusual but not unheard of.  However, 150 deg wind direction is from a low 70s SST source...   That's just ignoring some 10 deg of oceanic warming potential there - it'll be nerdy and interesting to see which wins that: Physical reality versus virtual reality. 

That said  .. it is 2 C warmer in the T1 level compared to the 00z run, so it may be grudgingly correcting as we get closer. 

 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That NAM is still doing this as of 12 z... 

Beyond 42 hours... it's veering winds into the SSE (150 deg) at Logan, and hangs their temperature at 18 C in the low to middle boundary layer all daylight long. 

A, in August...ooh k... a bit unusual but not unheard of.  However, 150 deg wind direction is from a low 70s SST source...   That's just ignoring some 10 deg of oceanic warming potential there - it'll be nerdy and interesting to see which wins that: Physical reality versus virtual reality. 

That said  .. it is 2 C warmer in the T1 level compared to the 00z run, so it may be grudgingly correcting as we get closer. 

 

could be a sneaky cool and dreary day N/W of the front on Sat .. verbatim 12km NAM holds areas NW of ORH to BDL in the U50s all day 

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A bit OT, but I was in Atlanta at the end of July. Heat and humidity about what we've been having lately, but it still felt hotter (yes, I know solar angle is higher, but even at night it felt worse). Somehow, if there is a bit of a breeze there is an underlying "coolness" here that doesn't exist down there. Its as if the heat sinks in and just never leaves this time of year once you get south of 40N.

Glad to see it make its exit. Summer, for me, lasts at least until mid September most years, just like winter lasts until mid March most years. So another five or six weeks to endure before the solar angle gets low enough to make 85/70 (or more likely 85/55) feel like a whole different animal than it does now.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Even the GFS is rainy with 60s (some midday 50s) here.

Just looked at the 12Z GFS.  Another 2.5" over the weekend.  Hey your at 9" something over the past 3 weeks.  Might as well round it to a foot of rain for the 30 month period.  Watch the setup cut off the rain right below me yet again.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not sure what you’re saying? Is it gonna be wet ..yes. On and off showers/storms. But it ain’t gonna be in the 50’s and low60’s in SNE with s flow off those high SST ‘s

Stance noted. It doesn't take much for ORH to pull of a mank low 60s day any time of the year though. We'll see what the 12z euro does. 12z NCEP models got a lot more QPF up here to let us wetbulb down into those 50s and drain them down to the ORH hills. If it's going to be crap anyway I think I would enjoy a break from the AC.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Stance noted. It doesn't take much for ORH to pull of a mank low 60s day any time of the year though. We'll see what the 12z euro does. 12z NCEP models got a lot more QPF up here to let us wetbulb down into those 50s and drain them down to the ORH hills. If it's going to be crap anyway I think I would enjoy a break from the AC.

Agree it won’t be a nice day . No qualms there. I just don’t see a cool , dry HP to the north funneling down low dew air into the region. We struggle to get dews below 65 tomorrow In Sne 

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