winterwx21 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, but it was close to a miracle that we maintained the 80/75 stuff as long as we did... you can't expect that for the whole of astro summer. I remain leery of the ridge building a bit further east and siphoning off the western GoM moisture. As it stands, the GFS op has dews near or better than 70F for much (most?) of next week. The broadcast mets carrying on about a "taste of autumn" are overselling it imo. I do agree that a "taste of autumn" is going overboard. High temps around 80 is still summer weather. But at least it will feel very comfortable thursday through saturday with dewpoints in the 50s, and with the dry air the nights will be cool. Definitely the nicest 3 day stretch of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, but it was close to a miracle that we maintained the 80/75 stuff as long as we did... you can't expect that for the whole of astro summer. I remain leery of the ridge building a bit further east and siphoning off the western GoM moisture. As it stands, the GFS op has dews near or better than 70F for much (most?) of next week. The broadcast mets carrying on about a "taste of autumn" are overselling it imo. Dude it’s cold today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 72/67 here-cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 I can't wait for the heat to be gone. SPC has western PA under a slight risk tomorrow and soundings support a chance of supercells with a possible tornado. It's difficult to chase in that area because of the mountains but I might give it a shot. One or two storms on the 3k Nam make it to NYC tomorrow night but I'm sure they will die like they usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Some drizzle falling here in wantagh currently despite the radar not showing anything. Today definitely has an early autumn feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Finally we get some cooler air. At least for a few days. I was in Boston this weekend and yesterday it felt cold during the morning hours although the day got quite warm in the mid 70’s. Looking ahead cooler and drier for a few days and than it’ll get really warm again but the good thing about the upcoming warm airmass is that it will be dry and not humid. Once that scoots to our south by September 4th or so, it’ll start to really cool down. Fall is coming. So after this next heat it is finally looking more fall-like? I would love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some drizzle falling here in wantagh currently despite the radar not showing anything. Today definitely has an early autumn feel. solid cloud deck here and temps going nowhere...the gloom does remind me a bit of late Sept or Oct where the sun angle is not enough to burn off the stratus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: solid cloud deck here and temps going nowhere...the gloom does remind me a bit of late Sept or Oct where the sun angle is not enough to burn off the stratus... 71 here. Dingy grey out there. Nice day for fishing. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 29 minutes ago, SACRUS said: I got so used to you posting the dew point map and it saying the same thing, that I needed to do a double take. I was like wait Jersey still has dew points in the mid 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 hours ago, nycwinter said: it might get even more wetter next week in oahu.... I woke up this morning to see that the track of Lane has shifted significantly to the right. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center now says that a hurricane watch could be issued for the NW Hawaiian islands by tonight. The locals here say they can feel the storm coming because the winds have been so calm. The Hurricane has literally sucked away all the breezes as they put it. Unlike the other islands, the poplulated portions of Ohau aren’t protected from the mountains. I guess I picked a bad time to go to Ohau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 It appears September will start out with very warm 1st week departures like May, July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I woke up this morning to see that the track of Lane has shifted significantly to the right. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center now says that a hurricane watch could be issued for the NW Hawaiian islands by tonight. The locals here say they can feel the storm coming because the winds have been so calm. The Hurricane has literally sucked away all the breezes as they put it. Unlike the other islands, the poplulated portions of Ohau aren’t protected from the mountains. I guess I picked a bad time to go to Ohau. without the trade winds hawaii can be like nyc very humid and uncomfortable...as a weather fan this sort of possible setup should peak your interest.. i would think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: without the trade winds hawaii can be like nyc very humid and uncomfortable...as a weather fan this sort of possible setup should peak your interest.. i would think... Yeah it’s “cool” but I’m right on the ocean in Ko Olina and I’m not sure how hurricane proof things are here since hits are so rare. The resorts out this way are all less than 20 years old, which was after the last big hit on Ohau. Were going to be in the right front quadrant to boot and the mountains are just to our North which means maximum impacts as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Some bigger breaks of sun/ clearing slowly evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I woke up this morning to see that the track of Lane has shifted significantly to the right. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center now says that a hurricane watch could be issued for the NW Hawaiian islands by tonight. The locals here say they can feel the storm coming because the winds have been so calm. The Hurricane has literally sucked away all the breezes as they put it. Unlike the other islands, the poplulated portions of Ohau aren’t protected from the mountains. I guess I picked a bad time to go to Ohau. They freak when the trades stop, which is funny IMO. When I was there (Maui) back 2014 during the El Nino, the locals were dying due to the lack of trades, they can't take the humidity without the wind. Usually trades are lacking with an El Nino developing or happening there. Of course, there is also an increased chance for Hurricanes there during El Nino too. Good luck with Lane, should the storm come your way. I would change plans and head to Maui or Big Island IMO, so you can fly back to mainland when your trip should be over, unless you want to stay and experience a Hurricane in Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, uofmiami said: They freak when the trades stop, which is funny IMO. When I was there (Maui) back 2014 during the El Nino, the locals were dying due to the lack of trades, they can't take the humidity without the wind. Usually trades are lacking with an El Nino developing or happening there. Of course, there is also an increased chance for Hurricanes there during El Nino too. Good luck with Lane, should the storm come your way. I would change plans and head to Maui or Big Island IMO, so you can fly back to mainland when your trip should be over, unless you want to stay and experience a Hurricane in Hawaii. I don’t think evacuating is an option right now. I guess if things trend stronger, they might order one. As of now, we’re planning to ride it out, not supposed to come home till a week from tomorrow so we’re hoping to salvage at least this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: If all the long range guidance is correct, then we may have to wait until mid or late September to see our next cool down relative to the means. Remarkable how it appears September will come out of the gate with very warm departures like July and August. Very strong long range signal for a ridge north of Hawaii and over the Great Lakes and Northeast until further notice. I think fall is going to be on the warmer side at least until late November when I think the bottom will fall out around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I think fall is going to be on the warmer side at least until late November when I think the bottom will fall out around Thanksgiving. The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don’t think evacuating is an option right now. I guess if things trend stronger, they might order one. As of now, we’re planning to ride it out, not supposed to come home till a week from tomorrow so we’re hoping to salvage at least this weekend and early next week. I went through Iwa on Kauai in 82 as a child, sparked my interest in weather. Thankfully my dad worked for United so were able to get out afterwards, otherwise it would have been a while due to the destruction & lack of power. I'm sure the storm will miss and you'll be ok. Enjoy your time in Oahu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I went through Iwa on Kauai in 82 as a child, sparked my interest in weather. Thankfully my dad worked for United so were able to get out afterwards, otherwise it would have been a while due to the destruction & lack of power. I'm sure the storm will miss and you'll be ok. Enjoy your time in Oahu. Thanks, hoping for the best. Hopefully the airport will survive the worst of it and we’ll be able to get home on time. As of now, it does look like a glancing blow vs a direct hit, but the forecast trend has been troubling, and a possible recurve right over the islands isn’t out of the question. I’m also worried about landslides and water spouts. As you may know, this side of the island is dry, so runoff will be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 FWIW the winds are much more significant today. A strong breeze out of the SE vs out of the West and nearly non existent the last two days. That’s the direction Lane is coming from, so I guess we’re already feeling some of the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thanks, hoping for the best. Hopefully the airport will survive the worst of it and we’ll be able to get home on time. As of now, it does look like a glancing blow vs a direct hit, but the forecast trend has been troubling, and a possible recurve right over the islands isn’t out of the question. I’m also worried about landslides and water spouts. As you may know, this side of the island is dry, so runoff will be an issue. I'd rather be stuck in Hawaii from a Hurricane rather than stuck at home not having been able to get there in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Overcast day today like yesterday with a NE wind...Only 71° here after 69° high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, tdp146 said: I'd rather be stuck in Hawaii from a Hurricane rather than stuck at home not having been able to get there in the first place. True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 5 hours ago, mattinpa said: So after this next heat it is finally looking more fall-like? I would love that. I still think we can squeeze a heat wave here but it won’t likely be as humid. That Bermuda high is very stubborn the last 8 months. If it persists into this winter we could benefit from it with heavy snows. It won’t be too cold but it’ll snow. The bad news would be this heat wouldn’t go without a fight. It would most likely persist into early October. Do I think it’ll happen, no I think we get a breakdown of the overall pattern within 2 weeks and get some rain into Cali with shots of rain around here. Definitely a colder pattern for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Lane is obviously strengthening per latest IR loop images. Intesity forecasts seem to be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. Only May has been well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Only May has been well above normal. February was +6.7F at KHPN and so far August has been +4.7F. Last month was +2.2. April was a coldest departure from normal at -2.1F, since March of 2015, which was -2.7 and February 2015 which was -6.7F. That February was the coldest departure from normal I have in that dataset since December 2010. Overall since I began compiling this data for tick projects, KHPN is running +1.8F above the 1981-2010 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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